Ha, well just remember @tomsmithidg that it is the bank executives (as opposed to shareholders) that have risk-free upside and limited downside.

An emergency capital raise or two will ensure most common shareholders get royally shafted in the event enough loans go bad.

And you don't need negative equity or anything even close to that before things get difficult for pleb shareholders.

ANZ, WBC and NAB share prices aren't much above their 2007 peaks.. and our banks didn't suffer nearly the same pressures as their peers did in the US and Europe during the GFC.

Anyway, I'm just shouting into the wind at this point :)

So what you're saying @Strawman is there is still a lot of Capital Growth opportunity .... :)

I feel like you're channeling Scott @tomsmithidg haha

Actually, there is a load of growth *potential*. There's always lots of dancing when the music's playing (and the band can play for a long time when jacked up on stimulants)

It's more a concern as to what could happen if things slow or, heaven forbid, go backwards. Not being a doomer, but these things do happen from time to time. So not calling the end of the world, just a plea for a more antifragile and resilient financial system. Just seems prudent to me.

It would appear that with the right bait you can catch the big fish @tomsmithidg

damn it... it really isn't hard is it @lowway :)

I saw this article on the ABC last weekend but didn’t get around to posting it. I liked the great visual that the graphs provided.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-09/interest-rates-smashed-mega-landlords-few-sold/105615242?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=messages

I think the mentality that you hear from some investors, coupled with the sheer size of intentional losses are very concerning and don’t scream out anti-fragile.

In all seriousness @Strawman , the banks being the lynchpin of the Australian economy, in such a privileged position, government supported and as you pointed out on the pod, integrated into pretty much everything for every Australian, from insurance to Superannuation provided the basis for my intitial investment strategy when beginning as a very risk averse (fearful) investor. My very macro theory was basically, if the Australian banks crash it won't matter where you have your money, everything has gone to shit.

The obvious exception to that was Gold (or maybe *choke* bitcoin *choke*, though not back then) or in the case of complete doomsday scenario, bullets. Neither gold nor bullets were going to earn me money that I could re-invest though, so Banks it was with earnings better than bank interest, plus franking credits, and the other beneficial tax treatments such as the CGT discount. I hoped for (and fortunately received) capital gains as well and it provided a secure base for my growth and (admittedly limited) diversification into other sectors and markets.

I think the direction and momentum of our economy (population increase, property prices etc.), especially now with the advent and proliferation of ETFs (resulting in more bank shares being purchased), is now reinforcing the entrenchment of the banks advantages. I think the chance of them going to zero is miniscule and their profitibility (admittedly on shrinking margins) is just going to increase. It is a sector that should really be able to leverage AI too with all the potential that entails as well.

Like throwing a hot chook to a crocodile @lowway ;D

See those bank shares shoot up today? Word must have gotten out about @Strawman 's revelation about them being the 'Best Game in Town'. :D