Forum Topics XRF XRF XRF All-Time High

Pinned straw:

Added 4 months ago

Looks like order has been restored with the XRF price, following the FY25 results 2 days ago!

  • XRF made a new all-time high today of $2.28, closing at $2.26
  • Following the previous high on 21 Feb 2025, the price retraced to around 60% with the low of $1.44 on 7 Apr 2025 - textbook retracement, really
  • It then went sideways around the 50% retracement line at ~$1.54-ish, before forming today's high


The XRF chart is one that tracks its results very nicely ...

As I am, unfortunately, very price anchored from my entry at lower levels, I am now seriously contemplating signing up to the XRF Dividend Reinvestment Plan, which has a 2.5% discount, as the only way I to get over this price anchoring and very slowly increase my exposure ...

Discl: Held IRL and in SM

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jcmleng
Added 3 months ago

Thanks again @UncleWally and @thunderhead ... having re-read your comments, I pulled the trigger on participating in the XRF Dividend Reinvestment Plan this evening.

My thinking around DRP's is heavily influenced by Matt Joass and Joe Magyer from MF Pro days - it is better to take the cash and apply that cash to your best idea. At the time of the DRP of a given company, applying cash to THAT company may not be the best use of the dividend income. That logic still makes a hell of a lot sense.

But the reasons why I pulled the DRP on XRF specifically:

  • XRF continues to deliver and grow - the thesis is very much alive and kicking
  • Topping up makes sound sense as XRF is only a 4.5% holding - a tad too low for a steady performing mid-to-high conviction holding
  • Can't get past price anchoring to my average cost of ~$1.07 at current levels, to actually act and top up - the price jump is too high and I continue to struggle with acting - was not prepared to top up when the price fell to around ~$1.50 either
  • Activating the DRP is a good compromise - the cash from the dividend IS being put to one of best performing ideas, it is done 2x a year, the top up volume is not big at all (far lower than if I were to do a deliberate top up), BUT it forces the top up to occur without any action paralysis
  • There is a small 2.5% discount to the weighted price, and there is no brokerage


Will review this DRP instruction as part of the half-year and full year results and adjust accordingly.

Discl: Held IRL and in SM

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UncleWally
Added 3 months ago

I commiserate with you @jcmleng and all those that suffer anchoring. Your comments are so true.

Easily the most expensive emotion I suffer.

Why I didn't buy more PME at $2 , $20, $50 I'll never know. Why I didn’t buy more WTC, XRO and Altuim over the years is still a mystery.

Even now I own promising companies like AHC, SDR & XRF and more, knowing that in 5, 6, or 7, years time they could be multiples higher and yet!

I love David Gardners philosopy, pull your weeds and water your flowers. Sometimes the best companies are the ones you already own. It's great advice and yet!

I guess if it was easy we'd all be Billionaires!


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thunderhead
Added 3 months ago

From my own experience, paying more for something you already own and have made a significant return on is always going to be hard - humans are generally wired to perceive and act on "bargains" (though quite a few of them turn out to be value traps!).

Also, if you have ever had stocks go down after you have averaged up (which also happens a lot if you are an active buyer of stocks), the hit to the returns on your average cost base tends to play on your psyche and make you gun-shy about doing that for future trades.

I have worked on it and improved over the years, often buying at much higher prices years later (I did for both RMD and ALU, two of my largest positions over the years, and profited handsomely). Some mental pointers to get better at it -

a.) You have to pay up for quality, as long as you are convicted and your investment thesis is in tact.

b.) You have to extend your time horizon to several years when considering any trade, and steel yourself to weather volatility in between.

c.) Never go all-in or full-tilt on a single trade or few trades - always leave a bit of capital hanging for making another trade in case the market offers even better terms.

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jcmleng
Added 3 months ago

@thunderhead ,@UncleWally , all extremely good advice, but bloody hard to execute, for sure!

Not sure which is harder - averaging down or avergaing up, to be honest. And I also know very well that the price you pay totally doesnt matter a few weeks later, it really doesn't, but it is that present moment inertia that creates and sustains the inaction!

Hence the thought around DRP - you sign up for it, forget about it, and your holdings rises as a result! I really am taking your points and talking myself into actually acting on this now before it slips and I rue not doing it again in a few months time!

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thunderhead
Added 3 months ago

Absolutely. I think averaging down is still the easier thing to do given the inherent bias towards perceived "cheapness" or "value", atleast for me. I find it hard to buy when things are going up, especially if they are doing so briskly.

I have improved over the years in not averaging down blindly, though I seem to be doing a lot of it with companies I already own that have taken a hit this reporting season e.g. CSL and SHL - PWH may be next.

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UncleWally
Added 3 months ago

  1. I commiserate with those that suffer anchoring. Your comments

Easily the most expensive emotion I suffer. Why I didn't buy more PME at $2 , $20, $50 I'll never know. Why I didn’t buy more WTC, XRO and Altuim over the years is still a mystery.

Even now I own promising companies like AHC, SDR &

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thunderhead
Added 4 months ago

I am in the same boat.

While the shares have performed admirably since I first reentered around the $1 mark, I am still underweight. I wish I had just held on to my original position accumulated years ago in the 20-25c range, but I was too impatient and sold to lock in relatively modest gains.

Here's hoping for some nice retracements to build a full position again.

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Remorhaz
Added 3 months ago

I feel your pain - I'm still sitting mostly on my original early buys (Sharesight says my average is $0.327 and that's including a few DRP's on the way) - like @jcmleng I may turn DRP back on

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