Forum Topics LBL LBL FY2025 Results

Pinned straw:

Added 3 months ago

My initial thoughts on Laserbond's latest results are quite positive, although the market seems unmoved. I guess much of it was expected.

At first glance the headline figures show only modest revenue growth and a small dip in operating profit, but this was a story of two halves (as the company was at pains to point out). The first half was weighed down by OEM demand issues and higher operating costs from strategic investment, but in the second half those investments seemed to start paying off --productivity improved, and OEM ordering patterns normalised. As a result profitability rebounded strongly.

On a full year basis revenue was up 3.6% to $43.5m while EBITDA slipped 4.7% to $9.0m and NPAT rose 10.4% to $3.8m (lower pre-tax profit plus a one-off downward adjustment to prior year provisions and other deductible items brought the tax bill down a fair bit).

But looking at the second half alone, we saw revenue up 7% from the pcp, and npat up 55% -- back to the record levels seen in FY23. If you annualise the second half (just by way of comparison) you get a PE of about 12x, compared to 17x if you just take the FY numbers as stated..

So while the shares dont look especially cheap on trailing numbers, the valuation is more reasonable if the second half performance proves sustainable. The services division continues to grow strongly, the products division bounced back in the second half and the technology division delivered its first modular laser cladding cell at Gateway. These are all encouraging signs that the strategic investments are bearing fruit.

My position on LaserBond remains the same. It is a solid business that has had its share of short term challenges and setbacks, but the core earnings power and long term prospects are intact. It may not be a flashy business, but it is resilient, and in 10 years it is likely to be larger and earning more than it does today. A normalised view of earnings provides comfort on valuation, especially given the strong second-half rebound. The company has no traditional bank debt, holds a healthy cash buffer, remains cash generative, and continues to support a tidy fully franked dividend.

What do others think? I'm probably being too positive.

Valueinvestor0909
Added 3 months ago

@Noddy74 - you got the response back from them?

Anyway, my thoughts on FY25 result ( not so different from most here): https://arichlife.com.au/laserbond-fy25-results/


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Noddy74
Added 3 months ago

I did @Valueinvestor0909 - sorry should have posted the response but it was a busy week.

As you know I said I would send the CFO an email in relation to some debtor ageing queries I had. Matt gave me a call soon after to discuss.

With regard to the majority of the balance aged over 90 days:

  • Matt wasn't keen to reveal the customer but if you guessed John Deere I don't think you'd be a mile off.
  • Apparently they're on 90 day terms (plus end of month) as a tradeoff for the fact that the customer is responsible for pickup of the assets. Matt didn't say so but I don't think 90-day terms are all that uncommon in the industry when you're dealing with Tier 1 players and multinationals. The greater certainty of payment comes with a price. It does make for a working capital challenge though, given suppliers like LBL are paying for materials and wages on much shorter terms.
  • Invoices aren't subject to dispute.
  • Largely that's what I wanted to hear but the reader can make up their own mind about whether they're happy with this.


With regard to the smaller outstanding balances over 90 days:

  • Aren't subject to dispute but are subject to negotiated extended trading terms.
  • Typically applies to new customers who need to see cladding works as advertised before making payment.
  • My view is this isn't ideal and is a greater risk of non-recovery, but when you're grafting to grow a business you sometimes have to agree to less-than-ideal terms.


With regard to the figure in the table not matching the commentary:

  • Basically a stuff up
  • It sounded like there was a late change to the presentation of the provision balance at the auditors request (see FY24 versus FY25). The table got updated but the commentary didn't.
  • I think you know my views on this. It's annoying, it shouldn't happen, but it does - what are you going to do?


Also had a chat about the recent Technology licensing sale. It's an existing customer who will use the Technology on their own fleet. They're not competing with LBL but they potentially lose some business from the customer directly. However, the sale is priced accordingly, they maintain a relationship with the customer and they will continue to support the sale and receive some revenue from it.

Held IRL only - not sure why I haven't added them here. Might have to correct that.

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Noddy74
Added 3 months ago

Agreed, @Strawman

I thought the commentary was particularly strong. It seemed to suggest that 1H was the outlier and 2H was more the norm and so I don't think extrapolating based off 2H is all that unreasonable. The $2.3 million licensing agreement signed this month is a super handy free kick for FY26 also. Presumably the fact that Wayne Hooper is stepping down (although continuing as an Executive Director working alongside the new CEO) is a drag on the result.

I would note one thing I picked up in the Annual Report:

b9b1194029e2f5c018ee7827abe448f0f4e986.png

It's big increase in receivables aged over 90 days due. They do give some justification in the commentary below the table, but I'd like to know if there are specific reasons the amounts are overdue, such as if the amounts are in dispute. They haven't provided much so if a significant amount does get written off it's a big hit to the P&L. Also, they state 15% has since been paid like that's a good thing - feel free to check my maths but I believe that means that 85% is still unpaid and is getting on towards almost 150 days aged. Finally, why don't the two highlighted figures match?

I asked for clarification in the briefing but they dodged it. They did say they'd reply to unanswered questions "in due course". If I don't get an answer by the end of the day, I'll follow up with the CFO directly.

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Wini
Added 3 months ago

Nice pick up @Noddy74. My questions were also missed (not as curly as yours!) so let's wait and see how they go getting back to us.

@Strawman I agree with your view. I think you summed up LBL brilliantly on the A Rich Life Small Cap Wrap podcast the other week. Investors greatly overestimate most management teams' ability to accurately forecast/control their businesses and are far to quick to attribute guidance misses or underperformance as incompetence or even nefariousness. It's business in the real world, unfortunately things often do go as smoothly as the lines on our spreadsheets want them to!

As you said, the question we need to focus on is whether something has structurally changed for the business and I agree with your view that for Laserbond nothing really changed over the medium/long term. We had classic situation of short term operational weakness combined with a high earnings multiple which leads to a market that lets the share price performance cloud their view of the underlying business.

Anyway, rant done. These results were very good. Most of the questions on the call were focused on whether the 2H momentum can be maintained, and for good reason because if that is the case LBL will be reporting record results in FY26. Gross margins in the 2H were back to record highs:

3923203d6f6a6b6d14883e0c36f269a0bca080.png

Opex was also well controlled, and while still above FY23 levels showed a strong recovery:

ac0c7da5074614623c2cca8d8b67380e6ce57b.png

Wayne stepping down was a bit of a surprise, especially given the last time you interviewed him a couple of months ago I believe he said he had a few years left. That said, the transition looks well handled and Rob's resume is impressive.

Also great to see a solid Tech sale, bit surprised it wasn't a bit more prominent in the announcement or presentation but given the issues with delivering Tech sales in the past perhaps management being a bit more conservative there.

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Arena42
Added 3 months ago

The business has turned around. They just need to execute.

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