I am not sure what the exact definition of “long-term” is here, but fundamentally the chart is showing that those holders are realising profits by liquidating their BTC holdings with the realised profits at the highest level in all but one bull cycle (2016-17).

Your question about the blocks beginning at 0 for each period is interesting, unless they measure “new” buys that hold long enough to meet the definition of “long-term” for each cycle in the chart. Typically, industry parlance for long-term is atleast a year.

Is a good pattern for sure.

Although I do wonder if this is causation or correlation?

Namely, I would lean toward the view that there is a correlation between Bitcoin going up and folks taking profits along the journey, as shown in the graphic, which can be (and often is) different to the causation that changes Bitcoin’s price over the money printing–debt cycle. While general adoption in its various forms provides many advantages, the money printing–debt cycle is still a major (some would say the primary) contributing factor to the price, and the money machines will continue to be in overdrive for a long, long time yet.

Does the above mean prices will go higher or even lower in the coming period? Who knows. Although I do lean toward the view that the money printing–debt cycle still has some way to run. Exciting times :)

Nice chart there @thunderhead . Interesting to see that there was loads of excited chatter here when BTC burst up through the $110k USD level back in July, but now that it's re-entering the atmosphere at terminal velocity with the heat shields glowing white hot I'm only hearing crickets :)

Honestly, these are all just irrelevant fluctuations imo.

It's either going to be several orders of magnitude higher as it embeds itself as the foundational layer of global finance.. or it's not.

So it's either insanely cheap, or significantly overvalued.

All the nonsense numerology over short term price movements misses the point entirely.

If you think, as I do, that this is a transformational tech whose impact will be as significant as the Internet, the only rational play is to steadily accumulate and hold. And just accept the volatility.

Speculating (gambling) on every dip and rally may work out well for you, but the odds are high you'll not only lose money trading, but will miss the on the really big moves, which will be sporadic and unpredictable.

It's going to be a long grind. With lots of false starts and scary corrections along the way. Much like the stock market.

Act accordingly.

There's always gold

I think your point, is actually the key point there @RogueTrader

Namely, the price has come down, and yet there’s no real major commentary around it. In fact, compared to historical volatility, this is just a bump in the road. Does that mean we’re guaranteed to see massive price increases in the coming period? Of course not, who knows where the price goes in the shorter-term, but volatility has always been the name of the game and, at the risk of repeating myself, the fact that we now don’t see pages and pages of media coverage when there’s some slippage is very noteworthy.

PS Even with this recent dip, Bitcoin is still up 83.5% over the last 12 months! But that is probably nothing :)