Pinned valuation:
Valuation deleted
@KarmastI am very interested to hear your feedback after the AGM.
I confess to having been a relatively "low conviction" holder for $DUR, having initiated a position when the SP was beaten up in May 2024, and then taken the money a year later.
Why did I exit? My sense was that the Defence pipeline wasn't converting fast enough (the opportunities are there, but defence timelines are notoriously prone to delays) and the mining sector has been weaker over the last year as well. Of course that shouldn't have deterred me as a strategic long-term investor.But it did.
On pipeline (below), the Orderbook is starting to look a bit anaemic. One you get to 50-60% then you are starting to live a bit hand-to-mouth (given the lifecycle of $DUR's business). So the falling ratio is becoming a trend. Of course, increase MSA work offsets that, as I understand it is in addition to orders. (Is that right?)
Conversely, Tenders have never been stronger and, if these convert, then it could be "happy days" indeed. But of course what is the quality of the tender book? If we believe management, then it is strong due to the ECI component.
As for Pipeline - well, you can make that whatever you like, so I tend not to pay much attention to that.
So I am on the sidelines. I generally agree with your valuation. I haven't updated my model but given the numbers and the question marks on pipeline, I'd probably be marking my valuation down from $2.00 to ballpark of $1.80 - so not really the upside for me to go back in at the moment.
On my watchlist. I'll go back over the call and the annual report once I get some clear air!
