Forum Topics DUR DUR DUR valuation

Pinned valuation:

Valuation deleted

mikebrisy
Added 7 months ago

@KarmastI am very interested to hear your feedback after the AGM.

I confess to having been a relatively "low conviction" holder for $DUR, having initiated a position when the SP was beaten up in May 2024, and then taken the money a year later.

Why did I exit? My sense was that the Defence pipeline wasn't converting fast enough (the opportunities are there, but defence timelines are notoriously prone to delays) and the mining sector has been weaker over the last year as well. Of course that shouldn't have deterred me as a strategic long-term investor.But it did.

On pipeline (below), the Orderbook is starting to look a bit anaemic. One you get to 50-60% then you are starting to live a bit hand-to-mouth (given the lifecycle of $DUR's business). So the falling ratio is becoming a trend. Of course, increase MSA work offsets that, as I understand it is in addition to orders. (Is that right?)

Conversely, Tenders have never been stronger and, if these convert, then it could be "happy days" indeed. But of course what is the quality of the tender book? If we believe management, then it is strong due to the ECI component.

As for Pipeline - well, you can make that whatever you like, so I tend not to pay much attention to that.

So I am on the sidelines. I generally agree with your valuation. I haven't updated my model but given the numbers and the question marks on pipeline, I'd probably be marking my valuation down from $2.00 to ballpark of $1.80 - so not really the upside for me to go back in at the moment.

On my watchlist. I'll go back over the call and the annual report once I get some clear air!

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Lewis
Added 6 months ago

Example #9000 of why I'd make a terrible day trader and an even worse insider trader. I was pretty underwhelmed with yesterdays results, not terrible, but just treading water. I'm an owner and was steeling myself for a share price draw down and a few months of "meh", but share price is up 7% or so since they released results. Short term noise but I seem to have a 100% inverse success rate with predicting the stock price movement the day after results across my portfolio.

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Karmast
Added 6 months ago

Couldn't agree more Lewis. A 25% uptick in the price since results is a real noodle scratcher for me!

I'm happy of course but trimmed a little yesterday, as it's now trading on it's highest ever multiple despite it's weakest year of growth since listing 5 years ago. I'm still hopeful FY26 will be a return to double digit growth and a stronger order book but there's not much room for error now at this multiple.

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Lewis
Added 6 months ago

Glad you agree @Karmast, I was starting to think I'd missed something obvious. Wouldn't surprise me if it all gets wiped back off, or it's flat for 12 months. (Although, as discussed I cant pick share price movements to save myself).

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