Forum Topics MAQ MAQ MAQ valuation

Pinned valuation:

Added 3 months ago
Justification

Scroll Down - latest update is at the bottom:

My 21-Jan-2020 12-month PT was $27.72. Old one was 22.77. Data Centres. Cloud Services. Cybersecurity. Customer Service Focus. Very high management ownership. Lots to like!

The MAQ SP is now double my original $22.77 price target, and well above my latest $27.72 PT. I think they are riding the cybersecurity and data centre megatrend wave currently, and there could be a pullback. They may have run too far too fast.

22-July-2020: My new 12-month price target for MAQ is $40, below the $46 level they are at currently, but if they go higher, I'll take it. I do hold MAQ shares. Realistically, they could pull back from here. But I have in the past sold out too early, so I'm just trimming my position up here and letting the rest run. Just because a company looks expensive does not mean they won't get even more expensive when they are in a hot sector.

Update: 17-Dec-2020: And that's exactly what happened. They just kept getting more expensive. There's no denying that MAQ are a great company that is very well run by two brothers with a massive amount of skin in the game (David and Aidan Tudehope own 54.63% of the company), however I don't know if they are worth over $50/share... Anyway, let's call this a momentum trade, and I'll make a not-very-brave forecast of $55 within 4 months, and $60 within 12 months. However, this is definitely a price target, not an intrinsic valuation. Same as my $330 PT for CSL. I think they'll get there, however I'm not sure if they're really worth that much... They'll get there because of the quality premium in the share price, and in MAQ's case, because they're in a hot sector - in fact TWO hot sectors - being (1) data centres (and cloud computing) and (2) cybersecurity. I do hold MAQ shares, however I've been trimming the position as they've been steadily rising, to lock in profits while still maintaining exposure.

18-June-2021: $60 is still OK for a PT (price target) for MAQ. Since I set it 6 months ago MAQ has mostly trades between $50 and $54, and the lowest they dropped to was $44.70 very briefly in March. So $60 isn't too much of a stretch. They are operating in a good space, and they are very good operators within that space, so I'm still a happy MAQ shareholder and I believe there is further upside from here. I would not be buying any more MAQ up here, but I did say that at much lower levels also.

12-Jan-2022: Update: Just got sent home from work as I'm deemed a close contact of someone who has tested positive for Covid-19. My RAT returned a negative result, so I have not got it myself, but I have to isolate at home for 7 days now and get paid for it, and take another RAT on day 6 (next Tuesday). I'll take it!

Perfect! OK, I'm raising my PT (price target) for MAQ, since they've been trading above my old one for the last 6 months. They look like they are struggling to push through $80, and they do look like they've got way too much upside priced in up there to be honest, but I think they can settle a little below $80, such as at $77, once they provide us with their next report, or otherwise announce some new decent data centre contracts.

I feel that MAQ get overlooked most of the time when people are considering DCs, cybersecurity and cloud computer services (web hosting, etc.), but they have a good presence in the space, and are doing very well.

I was originally attracted to the company by the founders (the Tudehope brothers, David and Aidan) still being heavily involved in the management of the company - David Tudehope is an executive director and MAQ's CEO, and Aidan Tudehope is also an executive director and their Managing Director- Hosting Group. They also each speak for just over 11.6 million MAQ shares, which is worth around $787 million at today's closing price of $67.90/share. Part of that 11.6 million shares that each of the Tudehope brothers control is their family company Claiward Pty Ltd, which holds 11m of those shares (just over 51% of the company). Plenty of skin in the game!

Macquarie Telecom also have/had a Danielle Tudehope listed as a Senior Vice President based in the USA, and I think she is their sister, but I'm not 100% on that, could also be a daughter of one of them; She doesn't show up in the Annual Report. She may no longer work for MAQ.

Further Reading:

AFR Story: Rich Lister David Tudehope on the keys to success (afr.com)

How Macquarie Telecom Group creates the world's best customer experience - UNSW BusinessThink

History: Macquarie Telecom Group: Cloud hosting, voice, mobile & data services

(10) David Tudehope | LinkedIn

(10) Aidan Tudehope | LinkedIn

FY21 Annual Report: https://macquarietelecomgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/MT_AnnualReportPT_FY2021.pdf

Excerpt from David Tudehope's "Chief Executive’s Message" from the 2021 Annual Report (on page 8):

"Seven consecutive years of profit growth reflects our commitment to our purpose of making a difference in markets that are underserved and overcharged, and our consistent strategy of investing in the growing data centre, cloud and cyber security markets.

"During FY21, we successfully completed development of Intellicentre 3 East and Intellicentre 5 South Bunker on budget.

"In FY22, the Group plans to make significant investments of between $121m and $133m primarily in our Macquarie Park Data Centre Campus, as well as for new cloud and cyber security platforms to enable growth.

"We are investing in Macquarie Data Centres’ staffing and technology to support our leading corporation contract win and continued growth, as well as investing in the fit out of two floors of IC3 East. We expect billing for the leading corporation contract will commence in the second half of FY22. The Australian Government has named Macquarie’s data centres as Certified Strategic, a designation meaning we are able to provide the highest level of security compliance available to support government data. In combination with our 200 Australian Government security-cleared specialists, Macquarie Government is well positioned to meet the cyber security and cloud needs of government agencies.

"We are investing in new staffing to drive growth in cyber security in our Government and Cloud Services businesses.

"Macquarie Cloud Services has shown strong revenue and profit growth through a hybrid offering that allows customers to utilise the cloud that is best fit for their software applications, whether colocation, private or Azure public cloud. We believe that their new cyber security offerings will complement this and drive further growth with corporate customers.

"Macquarie Telecom has seen continued strong demand for SD-WAN and new SD-LAN technologies that allow customers to monitor and optimise their site based network performance and utilisation with AI technology.

"Our outstanding customer experience, which is at the heart of our Company purpose, has been even more important to our customers as they rely to a greater extent on telecom, data centre and cloud services whilst their staff are predominantly working from home.

"In August 2021, we announced plans for Intellicentre 3 Super West, a new data centre which takes the Macquarie Park Data Centre Campus to 50MW IT load over time. This global scale campus will attract investment from multinationals looking to expand into the Asia Pacific region, appealing to both hyperscale and SaaS customers."

--- end of excerpt ---

So I hold MAQ here on SM and in RL - first added (in RL) at $15.20/share in late 2017, then bought more at $15.05 about a fortnight later in early Jan 2018, then bought more in March 2020 at prices ranging from $22.90 to $23.11/share. I've trimmed the position 3 times on the way up. As I said before they've been as high as $82/share on 31-Aug-2021, but I didn't managed to trim any way up there. They were only there for a day. They were a pretty small company when I bought my first MAQ shares, but they're a $1.5 billion company now. $77/share sounds good to me.

6b98456698aa110b786aea289b07da3992d54e.png

c5efb0029e769b3d2bca892d7b3271d9a8e612.png

9143cc8b34c39692fbb0124f608f54a86cdbf4.png

efd596d7dea410df9f32011264b32cb963d18d.png

8620c517ce2b583df0c346c4c3fc3369219e6c.png

55139e7aaef5946a2b5b1ba187ea6848e4074f.png

6b6fb86c72e8e3c375929d4354e55da420a74d.png

603e74ef4f8decc99bb220cde1a217ca2b500e.png

54573d45fa15d1d51e7ccdb8179aefbe51945f.png

9e3ec7f3bacd3124347aa85a8883d9e66d9a43.png

778c8c7a862eaa60916379e9405bdbeb5ceca9.png

40929d8e1eaef11cab5e2087963a08a662ae92.png

41394f55b1c0cb62f4e3d2937a7152eb4bb03c.png

05-Mar-2023: Update: I have posted a straw (see below this valuation) regarding MAQ's excellent H1 of FY2023 results. They've been over $80/share, and they're going back there at some point. Meanwhile, happy to stay with my $77/share PT.


27th August 2025: Update post-FY25 Results:

MAQ-Full-Year-Results-Announcement.PDF

Full Year Results - Investor Presentation

Full Year Statutory Accounts

f4e5c36423cbdb6779045c5b242563bf2eb45a.jpeg

Low growth, but still growth, and more profit growth on less revenue growth is good growth. EPS was flat. Nothing too exciting. Hence the market's muted response.

6911729f0960a0ee37e1f2250b94b95e811c9a.jpeg

4926f9995b038f33c9f49b55ac0b187e580161.jpeg

cd8685ee4620751d700a9430d7ab306cea8059.png

5b075e8742931fe89113ff1c54ac4f645869bf.jpeg

4c1a58de0d06d6806898dee9440dda59d53671.jpeg

522a4627e53df1f737d44f43a02766947ef083.jpeg

7b0c3e5ee46a7faaeec36a377079f341c16164.jpeg

https://www.macquarietechnologygroup.com/investors/

https://www.macquarietechnologygroup.com/about-us/

https://www.macquarietechnologygroup.com/

Disclosure: Holding here on SM, was holding in my SMSF, sold them to buy something else a few weeks ago when they approached $70/share, having previously bought back in at closer to $60/share.

Not shooting the lights out, but good management with plenty of skin in the game - the Tudehope brothers own 41.32% of the company in their private investment vehicle, Claiward Pty Ltd (10,650,990 MAQ shares). David and Aiden Tudehope continue to run this business as owners, which is hardly surprising considering they do own almost half of MAQ.

Cybersecurity. Data Centres. Cloud Hosting Specialists. Heaps of Government clients, particularly in Canberra and Sydney. Lots to like!

Dangles
Added 3 months ago

I think the market's muted response may have been because the report was released at 6:47pm yesterday! @Bear77

Revenue in line with expectations, but a small NPAT miss, I suspect the market won't love it, but we will see shortly.

11

BoredSaint
Added 3 months ago

MAQ are another company that always release after hours so don't think it would have had too much effect on the market movement.

I do agree though that results are mixed and guidance is weak. Another one to judge in a few years time when the investment cycle is over.

Disc: Held IRL and on Strawman

11

Bear77
Added 3 months ago

Yes @Dangles and @BoredSaint I certainly missed those timestamps last night when I was searching through who had reported yesterday - very hard to react to a report that hasn't been released yet. But the market got to react today, and the reaction was fairly negative - at least it has been so far (at 11:35am Sydney time) - they're down -8.5% - but like I said, growth, but not much growth, and a slight margin improvement, and they're still building out their data centre network, so as long as they're not going backwards, I reckon they're still good for a longer term hold for people who don't want too much excitement from their holdings. They looked overbought to me when they got up to $90 in November last year, so I wasn't surprised that they retraced back down to around $70, but I thought when they briefly dropped below $60 they were looking like a reasonable buy again around that $60/share level. But something better came onto my radar so that's why I took a small profit and sold out again recently. Small position held here only.

12