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Added 3 months ago

Lithium stocks rip amid warning of more China disruptions

Gus McCubbingMarkets reporter

Aug 27, 2025 – 5.46pm

ASX-listed lithium stocks ripped higher on Wednesday after UBS warned that the disruptions to Chinese supply, which have triggered a spike in the price of spodumene, would likely continue for longer than expected.

The suspension of production of a major mine owned by Chinese battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology earlier this month had already triggered a huge rally in lithium stocks, with the price of the white metal soaring about 70 per cent from a June low of $US575 a tonne.

ASX-listed lithium stocks rocketed on Wednesday after UBS warned disruptions to production of the white metal in China could continue for longer than first expected. Tony McDonough

CATL, the world’s largest manufacturer of electric vehicle batteries, said on August 10 that its lithium mine in China’s Jiangxi province would only be temporarily halted for at least three months after it failed to extend a key mining permit, according to Bloomberg.

But UBS analyst Levi Spry published a note on Tuesday which said the investment bank’s China team had now concluded that the CATL mine could be closed for 12 months because of the ongoing licensing issue.

This meant lithium prices could jump another 32 per cent in the next year.

As a result, UBS has upgraded PLS, Australia’s largest pure-play lithium company, from a “sell” to “neutral” and revised short-term share price target to $2.30, up from $1.60. It also upgraded fellow lithium producer IGO from “sell” to “neutral”, with a revised short-term share price target of $5.75, up from $4.80.

This came after PLS chief executive Dale Henderson on Monday said he was confident the lithium market would turn in his favour over the long run, after an extended price slide for the battery metal dragged the miner to a near $200 million annual loss.

“Exactly how long-lived [the delay] is remains to be seen, with higher prices potentially solving permitting issues more quickly and incentivising some latent capacity,” Spry said in the note. “Nonetheless, we see material upgrades to IGO and PLS earnings per share.”

UBS has also upgraded Mineral Resources to “buy” from a “sell” with its short-term share price target rising to $40.40 from $37.40, based on the expected disruptions.

“We upgrade Mineral Resources to buy following upgrades to our lithium price forecast, reflecting expectations for strict execution of Chinese mining right investigations, and resultant supply disruption,” UBS analyst Lachlan Shaw said in a separate note.

The upgrades unleashed a broad-based jump in ASX lithium stocks on Wednesday, with PLS jumping 8.8 per cent to $2.34, IGO up 3.9 per cent to $5.35, Mineral Resources 6.8 per cent to $37.45, and Liontown Resources 9.5 per cent to 92¢.

CATL’s mine, a key source of China’s supply of lithium, has been closely monitored by traders, who reportedly flew drones over the project last week as speculation mounted about its permit renewal.

Lithium prices surged in September last year when CATL suspended production at its project in Jiangxi, but swiftly reversed in February when the company announced it would restart the operation.

Wednesday’s share price jump comes after a burst of short covering in lithium stocks last week, with Perennial’s Natural Resources Trust portfolio manager Sam Berridge saying lithium had formed part of a broader rotation into resources stocks.

“There’s a preference from a number of funds to directing flows into the most shorted stocks within the resources sector – so lithium certainly ticks that box,” he said.

Randy
Added 3 months ago

Yeah @lowway

Been following the press - and it's getting to a really exciting point in things in terms of the still very large short position in PLS (14.85% & still 3rd most shorted on ASX), versus the rapidly improving pricing & sentiment in Lithium markets. End result could be explosive if shorts' get forced to exit all together.

I've trimmed position slightly at low 2-30's to take a little profit, but still got reasonable position to see how things unfold from here.

Even perma-bear UBS just updated its price target from sell to $2.30+ neutral this week.

Couple of interesting other articles / recent press on this & recent press for you...

PLS ASX: Short sellers unwind lithium bets – and one uranium stock

Short sellers unwind lithium bets – and one uranium stock

Gus McCubbing

Markets reporter

Aug 26, 2025 – 5.16pm

The rebound in lithium prices and a key equity raising have triggered a burst of short covering in some of the most heavily targeted stocks on the Australian sharemarket.

But as shares of lithium miners from Mineral Resources to Liontown Resources rocketed over the past month, hedge funds have been rapidly unwinding their short positions, which make money when a stock declines.

Lithium and uranium producers make up four of the top five most shorted stocks on the ASX, alongside student language and placement testing business IDP Education, which has been whacked by immigration curbs in Australia, Canada and the UK.

The rising price of lithium in August has triggered a burst of short sellers unwinding their bets. AFR

But it is the lithium producers that have long been targeted by hedge funds after the price of spodumene, the type of lithium that is mined in Australia, crashed more than 90 per cent from a peak above $US8000 a tonne two years ago.

That was until Chinese battery giant CATL suspended operations at a major mine earlier this month, which unleashed a rally in lithium prices and led to a number of fund managers including Argonaut’s David Franklyn and Jun Bei Liu’s Ten Cap to take on the short sellers, betting that the rebound will force hedge funds to cover their positions.

The white metal has rallied 70 per cent from a June low of $US575 a tonne, aided by Beijing’s move to curb overcapacity, providing a much-needed boost to lithium stocks that helped Mineral Resources to double in value from its June lows. PLS rocketed about 90 per cent, IGO 40 per cent, and Liontown Resources roughly 50 per cent.

The spike in stock prices has coincided with a burst of short sellers unwinding their bets that lithium stocks would continue to fall.

The big unwind

Around 13.3 per cent of shares in the Gina Rinehart-backed Liontown were held by short sellers in early August, but that has since dropped to 7.1 per cent, according to the most recently available data.

Similarly, the level of shorting in IGO has nearly halved to 4 per cent in the month to August 20, while the shorting interest in MinRes has dipped from a peak of 15.4 per cent in June to about 12 per cent last week. Shorting levels in PLS, however, have remained largely steady over the past month.

Argonaut’s Franklyn said the recent outflow of short sellers in lithium stocks could reflect the market’s sense that spodumene prices had bottomed out.

This comes as Dale Henderson, chief executive at Australia’s largest pure-play lithium miner PLS said on Monday that he was confident the lithium market would turn in his favour over the long run, after an extended price slide for the battery metal dragged the miner to a near $200 million annual loss.

“Spodumene has gone from a peak of more than $US8000 a tonne to $US600, and has now bounced back to just shy of $US1000, so the market is probably saying the trade is over, let’s close the shorts,” Franklyn said.

Perennial’s Natural Resources Trust portfolio manager Sam Berridge said while the rising price of spodumene had broadly boosted the ASX-listed lithium miners, the key driver of short covering in Liontown was its $316 million equity raise.

He noted that shorting levels in the ASX-listed uranium stock Silex Systems dropped from a peak of 14.6 per cent on August 11 to 8.9 per cent last week after the company’s $130 million equity raise earlier that month.

“Where companies have raised capital, you’ve seen the most dramatic short covering,” Berridge added.

In contrast, hedge funds are sticking with their negative bets on the uranium sector. Short interest in Boss Energy and Paladin – the two most heavily shorted stocks on the ASX – increased by 8 per cent and 2.2 per cent in August, respectively.

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lowway
Added 3 months ago

Fascinating stuff to watch and engage when the momentum is right @Randy.

I don't particularly enjoy the "Shorters" messing with the market, but then again, they do create an opportunity for a contrary viewpoint when they come in heavy.

I jumped out of uranium (specifically $BOE) in May and rotated into $PLS in July in my SM portfolio.

I've had $PLS for some time in my RL portfolio having purchased a longtime holding back when they traded at 80 cents. Still holding in SM and IRL for further upside, while sleeping with one eye open!!

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