mikebrisy, agree.     Today’s announcement and its speed is just astonishing.

Why I think CT:QV is different to the prior software take-up tribulations 4DX has faced is the XV products were effectively breaking new medical ground. Selling them has been a tough slog for 4DX with revenues for FY24 of only $5m.  

The difference with CT:QV is it replaces and is superior to the existing nuclear prefusion technology. You hear the word "game changer" all the time, however this looks as though it really could be. Not saying it will be easy for 4DX, but having FDA approval and now CMS reimbursement (on top of the providers chest reimbursement), with a scalable product and a 90% plus gross margin, it looks pretty good. In addition, 4DX are already active in the US market with sales, management and regulatory staff on the ground. This is not a cold start. Also they have agreements with Phillips -  and Sam Hupert sniffing around.  

However of course there are limits to the value of CT:QV: 

Very roughly, the US market is around $1b/yr. 4DX now has a market cap now of around $450m (at 95 cents and including 55m options).  

At US$650/scan and as Mikebrisy suggests lets say 4DX only gets around one third of this say $US200. (Haven't we all leant a GTN lesson in medtech/biotech from Botanix. Scoonie's BOT is still sore from the kicking). So call the 4DX maximum US revenue from CT:QV at around A$500m/yr.

Lets say after 3 years they get 25% of this revenue - around $125m/yr. It is currently costing them around $30m/yr to keep the doors open.  Lets say the organisation expands and this is more like $40m/yr. So you get around $85m/yr dropping to 4DX and after tax around $55m.   

So selling at around 8 times earnings in 3 years time. And this does not take into account the sales growth in their other software products. Even with the current share price run up, not stupidly priced.     

A further observation:

Cyclopharm (ASX:CYC) are directly in the sights of 4DX’s CT:QV. Their share price has been weak however the last few days but has not significantly moved.   A CYC shareholder register check shows Phil King’s Regal Funds Management is there with 11%.   With CYC at a market cap of around $110m the amount Phil can lose is capped at around $12m. Earlier in the year with Opthea he managed to drop $220m down the toilet.   So as some consolation at least with CYC, Phil’s record for biotech-face-plants is not in danger. Maybe for others a short opportunity. 

All the above however not without risk! These things can and do (often) turn to mud.

Add another lazy bag to that as of the opening price action today - this thing is in full-on meme mode.

@thunderhead you should read some of the rubbish being pumped on HC. We're in full HYPE mode.

Indeed (I am on there under the same moniker).

Is that a firm signal to get out?

I remember a slightly less crazy run a couple of years ago to similar levels, followed promptly by a capital raise which torched the price, sending it into the doldrums up until the latest sparks from some weeks ago.

I know nothing about it but the 5 year chart is steep upwards lines followed by very long draw downs repeated (past doesn't equal future etc).

@thunderhead watch this space. I would not be at all surprised if Andreas was in a meeting right now with BP drafting the documents for the next round! (I would if I was him.)

:)

Technically, the rally today has stalled around an area of prior resistance, though the momo is strong and it seems to want to go higher still.

Not a great close, though with a name like this, anything can happen day-to-day.