No meetings
Consensus community valuation
The consensus valuation is for members only and has been removed from this chart. Click for membership options.
Contributing Members
Content is delayed by one month. Upgrade your membership to unlock all content. Click for membership options.
#Capital Raising and Acquisitio
Last edited 4 months ago

Boy, this company sure knows how to kill off any momentum built up in the share price with a capital raising.

This is the second we have had within a few months.

The terms are generous to the institutional buyers not not great for existing shareholders (big discount to the prevailing market price of ~18%, 1 free attaching option with every 2 shares). Existing shareholders don't get an SPP btw.

The acquisition is of US-based Imbio, which is an early stage company which is touted as a "leader" in cardiothoracic imaging. Seems alright, but is this a case of juggling too many balls too early?

Read More
#Webinar
Added 4 months ago
Read More
#ASX Announcements
Added 4 months ago

Following the stall at resistance in the 70s, we have had additional newsflow this week.

First, with the CT LVAS US FDA clearance on Monday, and then new SaaS contract wins to expand into Detroit and Michigan.

Shares are currently trading well above resistance, and if these levels can hold, will set up well to test the 52w highs over the coming weeks/months.

Read More
#ASX Announcements
Last edited 5 months ago

Nice win for the company which significantly increases coverage. Technically though, there has been a clear rejection from levels that have acted as support on prior pivots (so far anyway, we'll have to wait till the close), so this is probably as good as it gets until the next catalyst.

9babda967d063628428f2b3c03ed1e44f595a3.png

Read More
#Quarterly / Appendix 4C for Q4
stale
Added 8 months ago

The SPP and Placement combined raised $45 million (before costs) and is being deployed to strengthen and accelerate the Company’s commercialisation strategy. 

4DMEDICAL LIMITED (ASX:4DX) - Ann: Quarterly Activity Report and Appendix 4C for Q4 FY2023, page-1 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

c264159b6591e994298e2de5cd1910043f6039.png

e3ac514de074667d7f359193605c9f70b856e6.png

Read More
#wins $1.1 million CTCM
stale
Added 8 months ago

Life support for of $1.1M - 4DX will have to grow profitability eventually though.....


We are extremely excited to have been awarded the $1.1 million CTCM funding announced today. Combining both functional components of airflow and blood flow into a single analytical process represents a dramatic advancement in respiratory healthcare, providing the ideal test for phenotyping, early detection and evaluation of specific treatment responses for high-impact lung diseases such as Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), Cystic Fibrosis, pulmonary hypertension and pulmonary embolism.


a7c40711129bc70b3483230c1c813557e87a94.png



bd1341dba09d8b50d01e2c13e052b8e04b3c9f.png


Read More
#Oversubscribed $25m SPP
stale
Added 10 months ago

A total of 28,044,096 fully paid ordinary shares New Shares will be issued to SPP applicants at an issue price of $0.89 per New Share. The New Shares issued will represent 8.1% of 4DMedical’s issued capital and will rank equally with existing shares on issue from their date of issue.

The New Shares issued under the SPP are expected to be allotted on Wednesday, 31 May 2023 and are

expected to commence trading on ASX on Thursday, 1 June 2023. The total funds raised, comprising the Placement ($20m) and SPP ($25m), amount to $45m (before costs).

Proceeds raised under the Placement and SPP will be used primarily to accelerate commercialisation of 4DMedical's respiratory imaging software and significantly strengthen the Company's balance sheet. Funds raised leave the Company with a cash balance of approximately $79.6m after costs as at 31 March 2023 on a proforma basis

6af06c6037c52671476e642e9c8e6dbed0c204.png

d0da47768106e2eeb8bb5dafe52669e543dca9.png

Read More
#Fouras substantial holding
stale
Added 10 months ago

Fouras - CEO (2012) circa 23% voting power.

1 Month ago 4DMedical (ASX:4DX) signs first US hospital SaaS contract https://youtu.be/ef8j0lr2JUI

04b6c04c84b6c8008d7ab614f06006d24d2933.png

5b83a0fde135479e9ff310cc6a38ff52350b73.png

Dr Andreas Fouras

Chief Executive Officer,Managing Director (Since 2012)

Bio

Dr Fouras is the founder, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the Group. He is also the Groups Chief Technology Officer being the inventor of its core XV Technology, maintaining a direct role in its evolution and development. Andreas career in academic research has a foundation gained within the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia. This research into wind tunnel quantification garnered recognition as a young leader in the scientific discipline of fluid dynamics, developing a number of new approaches to the imaging of gas and liquid flow. Following completion of a Masters degree by research and a Doctorate (PhD), Andreas rapidly rose to the position of Professor of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering and Director of the Laboratory for Dynamic Imaging.

He received accolades from a wide range of premier research bodies including the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) and the American Asthma Foundation. Andreas applied a novel concept to clinical use through the development of XV Technology, uniquely measuring airflow within the breathing lungs at every stage of the breath, providing both high spatial and temporal resolution at very low dose.

This research has been documented in over 100 peer reviewed publications and resulted in 72 patent applications with 40 granted. In December 2012, Andreas founded 4DMedical resulting from a deeply held personal and professional desire for his work to reach and positively influence as many people afflicted by respiratory compromise as possible, through global clinical translation.

Andreas leadership is evidenced as a commissioned officer in the Australian Army (Infantry) and through the prestigious Australian Davos Connections Australian Leadership Award for 2013. The focus of Andreas substantial intellect and energy is now concentrated upon applying business acumen, drive and innovation to the successful commercialisation of 4DMedicals technologies. Andreas is a member of the Medical Advisory Committee.


Read More
Valuation of $0.700
stale
Added 10 months ago

at 18/5/2023

5ffab3360739c41684bf6fef304af84ef1b568.png

e3aa9ef5b50b3ecad0786932fd36b03e665596.png

ade4f0dd709907504da67f17057e7cb5d4b862.png


6765b3436931dd8b9a2b1159d79090942c31d2.png

d02e1897026d980012560f826eee1cea53dca9.png

Read More
#to Operate at Harry S. Truman
stale
Added 10 months ago

3253683f85fca83ee1a01f6c00c8a5c3bb71b4.png

Read More
Valuation of $0.940
stale
Added 11 months ago

THE BUSINESS

4D medical is a medical technology company that specializes

in developing and commercializing medical imaging software and visualization

tools. The company's flagship product is its imaging platform, called VX technology,

which uses advanced imaging techniques to create a four-dimensional image of a

patient's lungs in real-time.

This technology allows doctors and healthcare professionals to better

diagnose and manage respiratory diseases, such as asthma and chronic

obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). VX technology provides a more detailed

and comprehensive view of a patient's lungs, enabling doctors to detect and

monitor changes in lung function that may indicate the progression of a disease

or the effectiveness of a treatment.

4D medical offering consists of the following:

1)     XV LVAS -Software used to analyse ventilation efficacy of lungs using X-ray hardware.  This product has been released commercially.

2)     CT LVAS -Software used to analyse ventilation efficacy of lungs using CT hardware.  This product has been released commercially.

3)     XV Scanner – Is 4DMedial’s prototype lung scanner, base don X-ray diagnostics. The scanner can perform imaging, with a fraction of radiation exposure compared to conventional X-ray hardware, and significantly shorter patient turnover times.  Target market – Paediatric hospitals (where X-ray exposure is a critical consideration), and veterans affairs hospitals. Where high throughput / productivity is required.  

4)     CT:VQ – Software used for ventilation / perfusion analytics. Currently under development. 

ADDRESSIBLE MARKET

In the United States alone, 74 million respiratory diagnostic procedures are undertaken every year at a value of $13.7 Billion USD. Worldwide, 378 million diagnostic tests are performed annually.

In particular, Veteran’s Affairs presents a significant opportunity, with an estimated 3.5 million (out of 19.2 million) veterans being exposed to toxins from burn pits. It is possible that all 3.5 million veterans will need to be screened on a regular basis, with the US PACT Act appropriating $280 Billion USD over the next ten years for exposed veterans.   News article here.

At a cost of $171 USD per scan (Agreed pricing with DoD and VA), assuming 1 million scans per annum from Veterans Affairs alone, the 4DX potential revenue is in excess of $250 M AUD per annum.  Globally, the addressable market is 10+ billion dollars.  

The number of Paediatric and military Hospitals in the US is 200 and 50 respectively.  These hospitals are the target market for the XV Scanner.    

COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE

XV Technology has the following advantages:

·        Improved insights from imaging, leading to better clinical outcomes.

·        Faster, more efficient testing, using existing hardware.

·        The only non-invasive technology that can detect burn pit exposure lung damage, using existing X-ray hardware, currently available.

·        Lower cost compared to existing technologies.

·        Equipment agnostic.  

·        Management claim 4-D X-ray scanning is being legislated under US PACT ACT– this may be true, but unable to confirm this at the time of writing.   

KEY PEOPLE

Founder - Dr Fouras, who owns about 20% of business.

Advisor - Dr Sam Hupert - Founder and CEO of Pro Medicus -

owns about $1 M in 4DX shares. Great back ground in medical imaging software,

and proven experience in execution.

Advisor - Dr David Shulkin - Former Secretary of US Dept. of

Veterans Affairs. He worked with current Deputy Under Secretary of Health,

Veterans Affairs; among others in Veterans Affairs.

COMMERCIALISATION ACHIEVEMENTS TO DATE

1)     June 28, 2022 - Signed commercial, 3 year, contract with Australian radiology network, I-MED. XV Technology currently rolled out to 30 I-MED sites (up from 27 at year end 2022). Expect this to growth to 100 sites nationally.  

2)     October 19, 2022 – XV LVAS application for Category III CPT code accepted by US AMA.  These codes are a set of temporary codes for new / emerging technologies, and is the pathway towards Category I codes, which allows US insurance reimbursements.  

3)       April 5, 2023 – Signs five year SAAS contract with University of Miami Hospital. ($200-300k AUD per annum.  

4)     April 13, 2023 – Dr David Shulkin joins advisory board. 

5)     May 1, 2023 – First veterans affairs scan under commercial arrangement.

6)     May 5, 2023 – US Dept. of Defence contract – commercial pilot.  

MANAGEMENT GOALS

Management have advised goals / milestones are as follows:

1)     News on VQ trial results imminent (within weeks). Management advise the initial data / results are looking great. 

2)     Prioritise US Veterans Affairs and US Defence opportunities.  DoD pilot contract expected to end by August, with management already in discussions regarding expansion into a wider commercial agreement post August.  

3)     Guiding for significant progress with Veterans Affairs + DoD in relation to screening opportunities.

4)     Achieve Category I CPT code within 2 years (enables insurance reimbursement). This step requires further clinical trials. Management reports 12 prepares are in progress (up from 4 papers 12 months prior).  

5)     Guiding to hit profitability within 24 months, with growth beyond the US to be self-funded.  

RISKS

4D Medical is burning $8 million cash per quarter.  It has approximately 2 years of cash runway to reach cashflow positive position.  The key risks are:

1)     Delay, failure to execute Veterans Affairs / Defence Health opportunity.  4D Medical is focussing on this opportunity to achieve the sustainable revenue scale they need.  Given the pilot contract will end around August, failure to extend this pilot in 2023 would be a red flag. 

2)     Key personnel – Should any of the three key people leave, this would be a big red flag, as these key personnel hold the key networks / relationships 4D Medical need to convert near term opportunities.  

3)     Regulatory clearance / hurdles may delay the adoption cycle, and increase development costs. 

4)     Delay in achieving Category CPT I code within two years will inhibit growth beyond VA / Defence health.  

5)     Competitors may disrupt. impede 4D Medical’s progress. 

VALUATION

Number of shares on Issue:  358 000 000 (incl options) - Excl/ SPP.  

Share price as at 11/5/23: 95 cents

Market Capitalisation:  $340 M.  

Cash:                                    $56 M

EV:                                         $284 M

Guidance for gross margins: circa 85%

Assume Veterans affairs contracts result in $150 Million AUD revenue per annum in FY 2026.   Assuming operating costs of $120 million per annum, and $20 M NPAT.  This equates to EPS of 5.6 cents per share.  At a PER of 35 (assuming 20-30% revenue growth at this scale),  I come up with a valuation of $1.95 per share.   

Discounting this share price at 20% (high risk), and including a 20% margin of safety, I come up with a valuation of 94 cents per share.  

POTENTIAL UPSIDES:

1)     Broader adoption across US war veterans (potential $100 M upside).

2)     Adoption by US dept. of defence to screen existing defence force pre and post deployment ($50 M upside)

3)     Broader adoption for long COVID, industrial disease health claim paediatrics (???).

4)     Adoption beyond the US and ANZ.  

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDES

1)     VA and DoD slow to adopt technology, reducing revenue stream & delaying profitability – medium / high probability.

2)     New technology enters market – disrupts XV technology – low probability.

3)     Clinical trial results delayed / poor results delay CAT I reimbursement – medium probability. 



Read More
#Bull Case
stale
Last edited 11 months ago

Since my last Straw from a couple of weeks ago, price action has continued to be bullish, aided by another positive announcement yesterday.

Price is getting closer to levels which will now act as resistance ($1.15-$1.50). Let's see if it has the legs to chomp through that.

Read More
#Bull Case
stale
Last edited 12 months ago

It's been quite the run for 4DX on the back of their first significant SaaS contract announcement, approaching 3x in just a few weeks from the recent low under 30c near the recent highs.

While the market has been happy to extrapolate this development and the valuation looks mighty stretched given it is trading mostly on distant future potential, technically, the momentum has taken the shares above key resistance levels around the mid 70s where price broke down last year. Today's action looked dismal with the price plunging well below those levels (indicating a lack of follow through to sustain further gains), but the buyers have stepped up over the course of the session and pushed it back to support. If it can consolidate around these levels (and the company can back it up with further positive announcements), we could be off to the races again.

Disc.: Small position held IRL.

Read More
#First US Hospital SAAS Contrac
stale
Last edited 12 months ago

4D Medical has signed a 5 year contract with University of Miami Hospital to provide XV LVAS software services. XV LVAS software is applied to X-ray scanners already in use at medical facilities.

This is following a clinical trial. with Miami researchers publishing results from their trials a a recent American Thoracic Society conference. The contract is effective immediately.

Early days, but it is proof the product is marketable and builds on its recent contract for using the software on existing CT scanners with I-MED.

I recall (don't quote me), that revenue is around $150 per scan. Each surgeon has about 700 cases per annum. That is about $100 k revenue per surgeon (assuming 1 scan per patient), and there are 4000 surgeons in the US. So that is a TAM of about $400 M USD per annum.....

DISC - HOLD tiny position........

Read More
#Initial Thoughts
stale
Added 2 years ago

Piqued my interest an wanted to jot down a few thoughts:


Reasons this could be a great company!

- No capex required by hospitals can use existing equipment

- Essentially just software = ability to generate software margins

- Recent significant decline in market cap with general market conditions.

- Seems to be just reaching the point of potential commercialisation. 

- Cool new medical tech (I am an ICU doctor)


First some physiology:

Picture the lungs as giant sponges that inflate and deflate as blood is pumped through the lungs into tiny blood vessels past tiny gas pockets designed by eons of evolution to maximize surface area to ensure efficient diffusion of carbon dioxide and oxygen. Your breathing increases and decreases to match the amount of blood coming out of the heart and vice versa and the amounts tend to remain synchronised and in balance in a healthy person. This is ventilation and perfusion and is often considered together as a ratio "V/Q".


This ratio should be roughly 1. If ventilation is too low for the blood flow (diseased lung) this number goes down. If Blood flow is too low for the ventilation (blocked vein) then this number goes up. Both are bad and are suggestive of different diseases. 


4DX reckon their technology can use equipment that hospitals already have with some new software to look for this V/Q mismatch.


This is a great business model. Software margins highly likely with almost zero capital expenditure required.


Potential indications:

The big money here would be diagnosing (or more commonly ruling out) pulmonary emboli (lung clots) however, there are several issues I have with this technology and this particular indication. 

Firstly the good news; there is no way to diagnose pulmonary emboli in patients other than doing a scan. The symptoms of a lung clot are the same as many other conditions and require a very specific treatment that has significant enough associated risks that you can't really give it without a pretty definitive idea of if there is a clot or not. 

Gold standard is CT pulmonary angiogram.

Unfortunately 4DX scans wont displace this. Squirting radio-opaque dye into the pulmonary veins and then bathing the lungs in 360 degrees of radiation is always going to be a more sensitive scan. I'm not an expert but I probably look at at least one of these scans per week and can usually see if there are any clots well before the radiologist report comes through.

Other scans like a VQ scan or a contrast free pulmonary angiography as they are developing here wont be as good and because the information is somewhat inferred it will be reported as a probability which unfortunately wont instil confidence and unless its very clear will likely just make us want to do a CTPA to know for sure. 

Unfortunately CTPA isn't perfect. It may not be the imaging of choice in young people who we want to avoid radiation where possible or in people who have poor kidney function due to the supposed toxic effects of contrast on the kidneys (this isn't actually a thing but it is a widely held belief in medicine to the point where is may as well be). 

Currently in these situations we do a V/Q scan which is basically a process of photographing a patient with a gamma ray camera while they huff radioactive aerosols and also have a small dose of radioactive fluid injected into vein.

If 4DXs scan proves a viable alternative to VQ scans which can be hard to get, needing nuclear medicine facilities Vs an X-ray then I imagine that people would order them. These scans are not fantastic.

Unfortunately V/Q scans are not used for much beyond identifying PE's (and not for that much anymore) 

- Monitoring lung function following lung transplant.

- Provide preoperative estimates of lung function in lung cancer patients, where pneumonectomy (Chopping the lung out) is planned.

- Can identify shunts (blood bypassing the lungs) 

There will more than likely be some other niche indications for this scan that become apparent over time. I could 100 percent see it becoming part of an extended investigation panel mainly ordered by respiratory specialists along with lung function tests etc. This could take a really long time to permeate the industry though without a hard and fast need to do indication. Currently it seems a bit like a solution looking for a problem.


It must be noted that given the market size a bit of traction could go a long way. To quote the company's own presentation "Given the large market size even low market penetration could see substantial revenue generation with high growth margin" 


Seasoned investors will approach the old "if we could just snag x% of $$$$$ market we will make $$" with the level of skepticism it deserves.


Read More
#Successful Clinical Trial Resu
stale
Added 2 years ago

4D Medical reported successful results of Vanderbilt 'burn pit' clinical trial.

Results: XV Technology confirmed diagnosis of constrictive bronchiolitis with less than 0.001% uncertainty. The only alternative to XV Technology for a reliable diagnosis is expensive and risky biopsies.

Market Potential:

1) US PACT Act provides USD $280 billion in additional healthcare benefits to veterans exposed to burn pits and other harmful toxins.

2) US Veterans Health Administration to provide toxic exposure screening to each of the 9 million US Veterans enrolled in the VHA heatlhcare program.

3) 4DX pricing structure with VHA is $171 USD per scan.......


DISC: I hold a small position in 4DX.




Read More
Valuation of $1.500
stale
Added 3 years ago
Only taking into consideration the current commercialised SaaS product. Using the number of annual US lung tests of 73 million and 5.3 million tests for Australia and assuming 4DX can get to a 1% market penetration in both countries in 5 years. Price per scan is $175 US and using a conservative EV/S of 5 discounted by 10% gives a share price of $1.8. Add in a margin of safety for $1.50.
Read More
#Presentation/Business Model
stale
Last edited 3 years ago

Capital Raising Presentation

Applications are due Monday 29th March for those that are holding.

Presentation link

Have a feeling the Friday FOMO rally was due to people reading the recent announcement with the DoD in the USA and maybe securing as much shares as possible so they get their full allocation from the raise.

I've put in my SPP application already. I heard the $40m for the institutional and sophs was fully raised.

Disc: I hold

Read More
#ASX Announcement 25/3/21
stale
Added 3 years ago

4DMEDICAL SECURES STREAMLINED ACCESS TO U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE & VETERANS AFFAIRS CONTRACTS

 4DMedical Limited (ASX: 4DX, “4DMedical” or the “Company”), a medical technology company focused on commercialising its patented respiratory imaging platform, is pleased to announce that it has been granted a streamlined process for securing contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and Veterans Affairs (VA) through NASA’s Solutions for Enterprise-Wide Procurement (SEWP) program.

This access will allow DoD and VA affiliated healthcare facilities to contract with 4DMedical to integrate and use 4DMedical’s proprietary XV Lung Ventilation Analysis Software (XV LVAS™) to deliver valuable insights of lung health. Revenue will be generated as the Company secures supply contracts from each facility adopting the technology.

The DoD is the largest government agency in the U.S. with 2.15 million active-duty service members and over 730,000 civilian personnel. In addition, the VA healthcare system represents the largest integrated healthcare system in the U.S., providing life-long care and services to eligible military veterans and their families. The VA operates 1,255 healthcare facilities, including 170 medical centres and 1,074 outpatient clinics, offering a variety of care to over 9 million veterans enrolled in the VA healthcare program.

As part of the arrangement, 4DMedical has negotiated a fixed price for its XV LVAS offering at DoD and VA facilities without requiring separate reimbursement. This will streamline commercial engagements with these facilities by having a pre-agreed pricing structure.

View Attachment

Read More
#Presentation/Business Model
stale
Last edited 4 years ago

08-Oct-2020:  4DMedical Goldman Sachs Healthcare Forum Presentation

The COVID-19 pandemic should be giving a company like 4DX a decent boost, i.e. providing them with a strong tailwind, considering they specialise in digital four-dimensional lung imaging and data interpretation.  They rose +14.11% today on the back of this presentation at the Goldman Sachs Healthcare Forum.

Introduction to 4DMedical

  • Founded in 2012, 4DMedical Limited is a Melbourne-based software technology company focused on creating a step change in the capacity of physicians to diagnose and manage patients with diseases of the lung
  • The respiratory diagnostic sector represents a global market of over US$31 billion per annum, with over 377 million respiratory diagnostics tests performed each year
  • 4DMedical is focused on commercialising its four-dimensional XV lung imaging technology, which utilises proven, patented algorithms to convert X-ray images into quantitative scan data
  • Unlike existing respiratory diagnostic procedures, 4DMedical’s proprietary XV technology provides a non-invasive way of understanding regional lung motion and airflow in real-time
  • With FDA clearance in place, 4DMedical’s major focus is on US market commercialisation of its XV Technology
  • Australian TGA approval for XV Lung Ventilation Analysis Software (LVAS) allows 4DMedical to gain local traction quickly through leveraging existing industry knowledge and relationships
  • The SaaS business model offers hospitals access to the technology without the traditional issues of hardware integration, capex, additional staff or re-training
  • 4DMedical’s advancement in respiratory diagnostic technology is expected to result in improved patient experiences, earlier intervention leading to improved healthcare outcomes, with reduced costs of care

[I'm not a shareholder, but they look interesting.  I would need to do more work before investing, such as establishing whether they have a credible path to profitability within a reasonable and realistic timeframe.]

Read More