Forum Topics KYP KYP Interesting company

Pinned straw:

Added 3 months ago

Have opened a position in Kinatico (KYP) - IRL and here. Another company converting from traditional software to SaaS. They do compliance software for workplaces - think certification checking when onboarding staff and ongoing monitoring. Eg mining drivers, aged care, etc. “RegTech” is a growing area with compliance requirements only getting more complex - their product integrates with most HR systems and handles this complexity for clients. Some nice enterprise clients and adding more as time goes by.

My theory is that they are at an inflection point and with moderate growth and a lower R&D / development bill in FY26 and ongoing they could start a much more profitable trajectory as the operating leverage starts to kick in.

Balance sheet is solid with $10m cash, positive cash flow and no debt. About $120m market cap and at current numbers a very high PE (just over $1m profit this year) but expecting that PE to drop to the 20s on FY26 results and more beyond.

I’ve not met management but the 3 key execs have good pedigree and skin in the game. I really like the chief revenue officer - seems to know his product very well (and gets more airtime than the CEO at briefings!)

In summary my thesis is:

  • growing SaaS revenue into a market that is growing - they say TAM is $2.8b and growing
  • pricing is ok if you look forward (and squint back :-)
  • solid balance sheet
  • Should get lots of leverage from growth and capex bill has peaked (at least CEO thinks so) - just turning NPAT profitable in FY25
  • product is sticky and gaining in acceptance / child care is a interesting opportunity off the back of the inquiry also
  • shares on issue have stabilised and even a little buyback last year - there’s no major dilutive options or like out there
  • management have good pedigree and are well aligned


Downsides/question marks/risks:

  • that money burns a hole in their pocket and they do something stupid like M&A
  • management take increases - it’s been big as a %age of profits but my theory is it’s front ended and will fall as a percentage of earnings
  • The big ERP players figure out reg tech and start doing it for themselves
  • it’s scalable here but limited / costly if you go overseas
  • liquidity of the stock isn’t ideal


Thats about it - would be interested in other straw folks views…@Strawman - would be great to get them on for a meeting too…

Rich





Stevie_B
Added 2 months ago

Although 6 months old this is worth a look prior to the meeting on November 3…

https://ausbizcapital.com.au/news/kinatico-asx-kyp-investor-presentation-0196e15f-d5c4-7262-b567-26b794d4fa12


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nessy
Added 2 months ago

https://canaccordgenuity.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=10ad3067-c13a-4a50-bbf7-315059dc61cb&mime=pdf&co=Canaccordgenuity&[email protected]&source=mail

Not sure if this link will work well but if it does it contains the Canacord review of Kinatico, a solid 18 pages of info to digest

Nessy

not held but interested.


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jcmleng
Added 3 months ago

@rh8178 , thanks for this. Had a quick look at the FY25 results - it looks like it is in a very nice financial position with an offering that fixes a somewhat easily understood problem ....

Some immediate thoughts, so upfront apologies if this is incoherent!

I think I get the issue that KYP is trying to solve. I had to find IT solutions to track certifications, registration tickets, permits, training compliance. Each system that the company has does some part of the tracking, but there isn't a central place/tool to manage the complexity across ALL types of compliance requirements. A nightmare if a company has its hand in different industry pies or a workforce which has diverse skills and compliance requirements. A central system which manages the compliance across all and any compliance, makes really good sense.

The risks you flag make sense. 2 risks jump out:

Scalability beyond ANZ is the one that jumps out at me most - evolving the software to manage the compliance requirements of other jurisdictions is not the biggest concern. The challenge will be to have the detailed skill and knowledge of that jurisdiction to define the requirements, across a wide-enough-range of industries, to be able to go-to-market in a new country is probably the bigger issue. It will then have a Xero-like problem - how to expand beyond ANZ accounting practices/requirements and gain traction, and at what cost.

The big-ERP risk is an interesting one. KYP is focused on the SME's, most of which will probably have a Xero rather than say, an SAP. There won't be enough in it for someone like SAP to spend energy building this. So am not concerned with the big ERP's. Not sure a XRO would want to build this from scratch either - too much trouble and cost. I suspect the risk would be whether KYP gets acquired by a XRO-like business which has the SME target customer, as an adjacent add-on.

I'd be keen to have a poke around, some key questions to address, as a bit of a frame for a deeper-dive, off the top of my head

  1. What exactly is the moat and how strong is that moat? Is the moat actually the regtech domain knowledge, staying on top of changes and proactively changing the SAAS solution to address change, which is then codified in the SAAS solution, rather than the SAAS solution itself? If the moat is regtech domain knowledge, then how is this moat maintained?
  2. Who are KYP's competitors and how far is the gap from that competitor to KYP's solution/moat?
  3. What is the pricing model and how do they upsell?
  4. What is the growth strategy from hereon over the next 3-5 years
  5. What integation to other systems capability does KYP have?


Seconding the request for a meeting with management @Strawman !

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Strawman
Added 3 months ago

Agreed, looks interesting. Leave it with me @jcmleng @rh8178

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mikebrisy
Added 3 months ago

@rh8178 and @jcmleng there are a whole bunch of HRIS SaaS businesses, several of which have compliance modules. Several years ago I used to own one of them, ELMO. It eventually got taken private.

I haven’t come across $KYP before. It looks like it is being well run. Is the low apparent revenue growth rate due to the transition from capital sales to SaaS, in which case it could be at an interesting point? I guess the SP progression of the last year is indicative of it both re-rating as it comes through the inflection point, and coming onto more investors’ radar screens as a SaaS transition.

I have no idea about its products, however, generally I’d note that there are several offerings out there doing HR compliance. And if it is focused on compliance, then it is probably a candidate to be taken out by one of the broader HRIS SaaS firms (more so that $XRO, maybe?) to round out their offerings, unless of course it can sustain a high multiple. With a forward EV/EBITDA of around 16, it is not expensive in the SaaS sector, where multiples of the larger high growth SaaS players after often north of 40.

I’d be interested to hear their story too. HRIS is quite a crowded space, so I’d be keen to understand if they are differentiated in any meaningful way.

Disc. Not held

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rh8178
Added 3 months ago

Thanks @mikebrisy and @jcmleng - exactly what this forum is for - testing my ideas. @Strawman if you can't get the CEO try the CRO (Chief Revenue Officer), I reckon he'd be as good to get on (or better still both!).

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twee
Added 3 months ago

Just had a look at this on, I agree it is interesting/

I recall the CV Check business from a while back - new CEO, rebrand, and a shift from one-off checks to a SaaS platform. The SaaS growth looks promising, with 60% of revenue from new customers.

As a detail person, I liked the product demo to help understand the product: https://youtu.be/j6lfuZJShUQ?t=2268. The new compliance platform integrates with existing HR systems and targets the SME market, which they see as underserved. They argue enterprise solutions are overpriced for SMEs, while their product offers a cleaner UI and mobile integration. The strategy seems to be: get customers onto the platform, then cross-sell.

Criminal checks remain ~50% of revenue and are flat, but compliance SaaS is growing ~$5m a year over the past two years. Valuation is around 4x sales and 7x ARR. Looks worth a deeper look.

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Magneto
Added 2 months ago

@RogueTrader not sure Claude would want the official buys shared here right after he’s just posted them on the website — it might seem a little unfair to his subscribers


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RogueTrader
Added 2 months ago

@Magneto true except for the fact he's been calling it a buy since 2 Aug last year (when I first jumped in at 11c.) DMX also were loudly calling it a buy at the time.

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Magneto
Added 2 months ago

@RogueTrader fair point — though I think there’s a difference between highlighting something as attractive and posting the official buy alerts that subscribers are paying for. But all good.


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Schwerms
Added 2 months ago

Might even drum up a few new subscribers.. it's like free advertising

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Bear77
Added 2 months ago

Yes @Schwerms that's the approach I take with using MarcusToday tables and charts in some of my forum posts here, gold price data from Goldprice.org, data from FNArena, etc. As long as the sources are correctly attributed/referenced, it can only drive traffic to their websites where people want more of the same. After all, we are only ever sharing a very small portion here of what paying subscribers get access to, and are raising awareness of their offering.

In this case, @RogueTrader provided the link to the reccomendation, which, when clicked on, denies access to non-subscribers, so it's one thing to know that Claude has called a company a buy, it's another thing to know why, and paid subscribers get those details, i.e. why he thinks it's a buy, the risks, what he's watching with this company, when he'd sell, all of that.

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