Pinned straw:
Nice Release confirming RECELL results in 36% shorter hospital stays vs traditional skin grafting.
Won’t move the dial on the share price as the market is clearly in show-me-the-revenue mode, but this is pleasing as it makes the real-world evidence-based case to use RECELL that much more compelling for Burns hospitals, trauma centres and surgeons.
The objective would surely be to get to the point where the AVH bods can say to the hospitals “Why on earth are you NOT yet using RECELL”?
- A greater proportion of RECELL-treated patients were discharged directly home, indicating improved recovery trajectories
- Analysis had:
- 741 adults from the Burn Care Quality platform registry
- 247 patients treated with RECELL experienced an average 5.6 day reduction in hospital LOS
- 36% decrease compared to those treated with split thickness skin graft, 494 patients
- Economically impactful:
- Based on an average daily inpatient bed cost of $7,554, use of RECELL is associated with potential per patient cost savings of $42,000, exclusive of procedure and rehabilitation costs
- Reduction in LOS may enable hospitals to treat 13 more patients per bed annually compared to treatment with STSG alone
- In 2023 alone, US burn cases consumed more than 110,000 ICU days, costing in excess of US$676m
Chart Review
The AVH price has drifted downwards as expected and seems to be forming a reasonable base around $1.32 to $1.33, a tad higher than my expected low of ~$1.28, which goes back to the last June 2022 low. Daily volume has stayed flattish, so its all been pretty orderly thus far.
I topped up last week at $1.355, probably a wee bit impatient, but I have one more top up ready to deploy if it gets below $1.30.
Director Top Up
Sorry, forgot to add this.
The top up of 10k shares on market was 15% of his prior holdings of 63,291 ... not much, but this was in isolation, and with his own US$45k coin ... can't be bad!
Discl: Held IRL and in SM
@jcmleng I wondered why this was NOT marked price sensitive, but then I realised that it is the same data from the British Burns Association Conference that they rolled out at the last investor presentation (2Q).
There are a couple of points to make about it's significance.
First, this plays into the same US Healthcare issue with RFK going after the price of dermal substitutes (The event that led to $PNV to make their "non-announcement" which was market price sensitive, and their unbelievable trading halt. WTF!!) Data like this is exactly what is used to justify pricing decisions. (Spend $10,000 on a treatment to save $40,000 in fewer days in hospital etc. etc.)
Second, $AVH are "rolling the pitch" in the EU, ahead of the expected granting of the International CE Mark for Recell and Recell Go in Q4. This data could not come at a better time for $AVH to negotiate pricing and reimbursement for when they launch in EU/Australia.
(I much prefer Jim Corbett's low key approach of keeping the market informed, than the constant dramas about nothing from DW.)
My almost 3% RL position initiated in May has now fallen 30% to a smidge over 20%. I thought we'd seen the bottom in May, but that was before the CMS coding debacle. My gut is telling me that I should be taking a bigger position here, but I have been resisting. I mean, EV/Revenue is a crazy at <1>
Maybe this is where I should be directling the rest of my $4DX windfall? Talk about short term multi-bagger potential. .... but oh, what a serial disappointer ... until it doesn't!
@mikebrisy, I did wonder about the source of the data, but why it got my attention is that it is data US National Burn Registry data, with a much smaller pupulation size of 741.
The BBA data was a much bigger dataset of 6,300 patients.
I didn't think much of it not being marked price sensitive as the 36% LOS reduction is the exact same finding as the BBA study, so in that sense, nothing "new" from an outcome perspective. But that a totally different dataset is comfirming 36% is great news!
It would seem I now need to dig into RFK's rubbish - I was trying to ignore the noise, but that sounds unwise!
I think this reporting season, I have decided to pay more attention to the robustness of the "underlying product" in my look back. I am still liking what I am seeing with AVH as nothing has really changed other than more evidence that RECELL works and works well ...
Discl: Held IRL and in SM