Thanks, Stevie. Interesting, but quite outside my orbit. Every time I attempt to play these hype stories, I lose money, so it's someone else's game. its funny, apparently 90% of day traders lose money, but i must interact with the other 10%. lol. The 8020 invest CW talks about here, I believe, is Angie Ellis, a very active day trader (and successful if you listen to her). i had the pleasure of talking with her about 4-5 years ago. after listening for a while, i had to ask, how often do you trade? as in turnover your portfolio a year (im around 30-40%pa), she didnt know, ok i asked how many trades would you do in a day? she said she didn't know but counted the trades that day (it was early afternoon if i recall correctly), and she said 17. 17 trades a day! i asked whether that was unusual, she said Not really. so that is what we have here. is this investing? well, not in my galaxy, but there are other galaxies, of course.

the only reason i came across her was that the ASA had her present to the group, adding some kind of legitimacy.......yeah, I don't know why either.

the point is that these types of hype stories attract these day traders who are there for pure momentum and can turn on a dime (intraday), so beware.

CW gives a more sober assessment lol.

That's a bit over 4,000 capital gains events per year. Even if you had some sort of edge the accountant would take a fair chunk back untangling it all you would think.

Interesting article and thank you for posting  Stevie_B.  

From the Rich Life article:

“Overall, I think the sociological signals currently seem to suggest 4DX has either passed the peak of this hype cycle, or else we are close to it.”

I think Claude is correct with his summary of the current 4DX situation.  I also think he has done a wonderful job of highlighting the market ratbaggery that has gone on to get it to the present share price and highlighting the role to date and potential role of PME.   

However in support of 4DX I would say :

•  CT:VQ™ is now FDA approved and a reimbursable product well placed to replace the existing workflow for nuclear VQ.  The size of this nuclear market (and further) is debatable, however maybe $US1.1b.
• The CT LVAS™, XV LVAS™, LDAi, LDAf products have been to niche to date, with FY24 total sales of around $4m. This month’s announcement of the Brazil lung health screening is evidence the addressable market may be much larger. It takes a long time for the new medical technology to become mainstream no matter how good it might be. The now commonplace heart calcium scoring started back in the 1990s.   
• It has an established management and sales team in the US
• The relationship with PME is important in promoting the product and in an advisory role navigating US regulatory and sales environment.   Also PME at a m/cap of $29b may just take out 4DX at some point.

Maybe I will be shown to be wrong, however unlike most of these speculative medical fuglies I think 4DX is one that could further surprise.  If it does it will however be a bumpy ride.   

Maybe the safest trade is to short Cyclopharm (ASX:CYC) whom if even 30% of the CT:VQ™ 4DX story comes to pass is about to get kneed in the nuts, poked in the eyes and gets its radioactive arse kicked to the gutter. 

Agree with you @Scoonie that $4DX has potential. However I’m not yet convinced that Andreas is THE person to lead the company through the next phase of growth (even if he continues to be kind to his Mrs!!)

After reading the article I think it is likely that $PME will take out $4DX sooner rather than later to add to their suite of offerings.

Based on the above I continue to hold positions IRL and in SM and will look to add on significant pullback - not exactly sure what that means at this point in time.

@Stevie_B I agree with most of today’s discussion.

As @Scoonie notes, there is value in this business, though Claude’s article didn’t really cover that. Its main point—that $4DX’s price is driven by hype and shouldn’t be compared with $PME (except via its smart partnership with PME)—is fair enough.

The big uncertainties are:

1. How much of the addressable market $4DX can capture and how quickly? Adoption by clinicians and payers is a major unknown.
2. What it will cost (in sales effort, margins to partners, etc.) to do so.

Claude also makes the useful point that SaaS medical imaging companies are not all alike. $PME operates at a very different level of quality and economics than $VHT or $M7T. Where $4DX sits between these extremes is pretty unclear at the moment.

For $4DX, the key issue is how costs will scale as revenue grows. My bullish valuations suggest $1–$2 per share is plausible, but execution and market response remain highly uncertain. For example, how would the market value $10m–$15m revenue in FY26?

There’s a good chance we are seeing a hype cycle: today’s “Peak of Excitement” followed by a “Trough of Disillusionment” before growth resumes. And peak to trough and then the steady "climb of enlightenment" (to get back to today's peak before going on to exceed it) could well span 1, 2 or even 3 years.

That’s why I’ve sold down in RL over the past two weeks and, to properly reflect my actual RL behaviour in my SM portfolio, that's why I've put the "sell" on SM today.

I’ll keep monitoring $4DX closely, but short-term risk/reward favours taking most of the gains off the table.

The real challenge is always whether or not 4DX momentum will continue beyond a year and hence become an investment rather than just another quick trade.

@Stevie_B, @mikebrisy After reading Claude's take, here is an opposing view which I have pulled from HC to illustrate how ebullient some HC posters have become and this article only feeds the frenzy.

The author of the following article, Paul Nojin, has always come across to me (whether rightly or wrongly) as very smug. Back in the early 2000's I subscribed to one of his newsletters called Key Levels and I remember some of his share price predictions, based mainly on technical analysis, were so unbelievable that it had me questioning his credibility (despite his resume outlining all his achievements). I vaguely remember him pumping a stock called Ventracor (with price targets probably akin to 4DX) that ultimately went bust but he is back at it again with 4DX. Anyway I have no idea whether Nojin will be right or wrong so 4DX is just a very speculative hold for me.

4DMedical (4DX) – From $1 to $100

Paul Nojin

September 14, 2025

Last: $1.76

I hold 4DX

4DMedical (4DX), founded by radiologist Andreas Fouras, has developed a patented lung imaging platform that uses X-ray technology and proprietary algorithms to create functional four-dimensional scans. The company can diagnose respiratory conditions earlier, faster, and with more precision than traditional CT scans, and is on the cusp of revolutionising respiratory diagnostics.

The company’s flagship product, XV Technology, provides physicians with a detailed, four-dimensional view of lung function. Unlike traditional methods like X-rays (which show structure but not function), CT scans (which involve high doses of radiation), and spirometry (which is effort-dependent and often inaccurate), 4DX’s technology offers a non-invasive and highly accurate map of how a patient’s lungs are performing.

Respiratory disease is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide, with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) alone impacting hundreds of millions. The global respiratory diagnostics market is valued in the tens of billions of dollars and 4DX is positioned to capture a significant share.

4DMedical’s technology is on target to become the new global standard. The science is proven, and the problem is urgent.

US FDA approval was received on September 1 for 4DX’s lung-imaging technology, CT:VQ, the world’s first and only non-contrast, CT-based ventilation-perfusion imaging technology.

This FDA clearance was described as “a historic moment in respiratory diagnostics”.

CT:VQ addresses critical clinical and operational challenges inherent in traditional nuclear VQ imaging. The elimination of radiotracers streamlines scheduling and improves patient access by removing the associated complex handling requirements and regulatory constraints. Traditional nuclear VQ imaging workflows are simplified through CT:VQ by seamless integration with existing CT protocols, requiring no additional infrastructure or specialised equipment. CT:VQ delivers superior image resolution and precise quantification while eliminating artifacts commonly associated with radiotracer clumping or contrast leakage.

Most significantly, CT:VQ will leverage the extensive installation base of approximately 14,500 CT scanners across the U.S. healthcare system. This broad accessibility extends advanced VQ imaging capabilities to rural and smaller healthcare facilities that may lack nuclear medicine infrastructure, democratising access to this critical diagnostic tool, and offering improved patient outcomes.

In other words, the onboarding process for new clients is straightforward, so adoption will be rapid and widespread.

The addressable market in the US alone is $1.6 billion per annum, so that is the initial revenue target, because the company expects to rapidly win a significant share of this market, and eventually 100%. The global market is worth $4 billion per annum.

To put this target in context, Pro Medicus is forecast to have revenue of just $480 million in 2028. Pro Medicus has a market cap of $31 billion, while 4DX is just $860 million, so there is a huge disparity in the respective valuations that will narrow rapidly.

There is the prospect that 4DX will have a free cash flow margin above 50%, better than all other ASX companies.

I believe 4DX will be celebrated alongside Pro Medicus as Australia’s highest quality company in the not far distant future. It is the epitome of what we seek as investors and has the potential to deliver life changing returns.

Not only does 4DX look like the next Pro Medicus, it looks like achieving this in faster time. 2025 revenue rose 56%. Underlying SaaS revenue rose 95%. SaaS products are now available at 388 sites globally, up 60%.

On September 3, the U.S. Centre for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) confirmed reimbursements for CT:VQ, which was the final piece to the puzzle, and will obviously accelerate the path to market adoption.

When the ASX 300 is reweighted in March, 4DX is almost certain to be included, and I believe that will be the catalyst to set the share price on a course towards $100.

The next target is $14.60. Within 5 years, I believe the target for 4DX is $100. That being the case, it is massively undervalued at current levels.

4DX is on the cusp of commercialising a technology that will fundamentally change respiratory diagnostics. This isn’t an incremental improvement; it’s a paradigm shift.

Over the years I’ve had success identifying high quality small caps at an early stage. Examples include Pro Medicus, Nvidia and REA.

Pro Medicus rose from $4.12 to $336, REA from $1 to $276, and Nvidia from $2.76 to $180.

Nevertheless, I hold the strong view that 4DX will outperform them all.

If you bought when I first recommended 4DX on August 1 at 30 cents it is already a great outcome, but in my view, this is just the very start of a multi year bull market that is set to shoot the lights out and deliver massive returns to shareholders, in particular those buying in at this very early

You're right to be sceptical @OxyBBear. I am not sure if Mr Nojin will be right or wrong (I actually think 4DX is onto something interesting), but I think you need to be pretty circumspect about anyone who talks with that degree of certainty about any stock. It's a probabilistic game and I could never imagine a Buffet or a Munger ever saying anything like that about any stock they own....

If you're in the "business of share trading" @Lewis I'm reliably informed (by an accountant) that sells are no longer CGT events. Buys and sells are treated like inventory adjustments, stock in and stock out, and you pay tax on the net profit for the reportable period after deducting costs, so in terms of taxation it's treated differently to investing, and because there are no CGT events (gains or losses), you can also NOT claim the 50% CGT deduction for shares held for over 12 months, but traders don't generally hold shares that long anyway, so that doesn't matter to them.

Ah, that makes sense @Bear77. It would be an admin nightmare. Thanks for the knowledge.

I listened to a podcast about her and she mentioned having accounting qualifications. Not sure if she said she was chartered or CPA.

She also mentioned in the podcast she tries to avoid mining companies and yet I still see some mining and rare earth coys such as WA1 resources in her X feed.

She got quite popular from winning the SMH share market comp against the likes of other investing personalities including Roger Montgomery!