Forum Topics MAQ MAQ Business Model/Strategy

Pinned straw:

Added 3 months ago

I noticed that MAQ hasn’t announced any major new customers for a while (happy to be corrected), so I wanted to check if that was a red flag.

What I found is that Macquarie’s data centres are already running at ~96% utilisation. In other words, they can’t sign new customers until fresh capacity comes online. IC3 Super West will more than double capacity (21 MW → 47 MW) over the next 12–18 months, with another 200+ MW in the pipeline. The real question is how quickly that gets leased once available?

Worth noting too that there’s currently a shortage of DC MW in Australia, with demand from cloud, AI and government workloads outpacing supply. MAQ also has some barriers to entry working in its favour; sovereign credentials, strong government relationships, and the stickiness of bundled services (DC + cloud + cyber) make it harder for competitors to dislodge existing clients. If the new MW fills, you’d expect all three segments to lift together.

Curious what others think about the demand side. Will new capacity get taken up as soon as it’s live, or is that too optimistic?

Disclosure: I hold MAQ in real life and on SM.

twee
Added 3 months ago

I hold in RL.

Re your question on how quickly capacity get filled for IC3 superwest when it comes available. I was watching an interview with Paul, standing ontop of it, (link to timestamp ) where he claimed that it's expected for capacity not to be sold yet at this stage in construction and that last time they sold it 4 months before opening.

Data centre demand may be easing from its recent boom, but it’s still set to grow over the long term. Adding new capacity is expensive and slow, leading to a lumpy investment cycle. I also hold SKS in this space also which is involved in construction of data centres and much more concentrated on just data centres where MAQ is much more diversified. Leasing capacity should be the leading indicator so something to watch for me for them.

I really like the other non-data centre parts of the business which I see as highly defensive.

Overall though, I agree with Bears points, they have a history of execution so willing to trust management. Lack of dividends suits my situation and I see it is as a good business.


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Bear77
Added 3 months ago

I'm bullish on MAQ also @DrJP and I hold them here (small position, as I kept taking profits as they rose from much lower levels), and I also traded them recently in my SMSF from around $60 up to around $70 before they reported. I see better opportunities in the gold sector currently, otherwise I would still be holding MAQ in my SMSF. The only two companies in my SMSF that are not gold companies are NRW Holdings (NWH) and ARB Corporation (ARB). ARB and MAQ have similar management, plenty of skin in the game and managers who run the business as owners rather than managers, so make all the right calls. ARB have more near term upside with their expansion into the USA and UAE, plus other growth, new products, and very loyal customers here in Australia as well.

The issue with MAQ, as good as they are, and they are good, is that building DCs takes a long time as we can see by their Proposed-Land-Acquisition.PDF announcement back in July where their price spiked on their announcement of their intention to buy more land for a future "Data Centre Campus" in Sydney. However they haven't even made a FID on that, they've just paid for the option of doing it - their wording was that they have: "entered into a put and call option with a large, long established property investment and development company based in Sydney to purchase a large parcel of land for a new data centre campus in Sydney (Option)". So they still have to make that final investment decision, then get the land rezoned, and then get the thing built - so that new DC Campus being in operation is indeed many years away.

Don't get me wrong - their track record so far is superb - but it's a slow grind that pays off over time. Or to put it another way, they can do nothing for a few years and then go on a good run (in terms of their share price). They do have very strong tailwinds behind them as you have pointed out, and their focus on cybersecurity and cloud hosting and bundling that together with local (Australian) data storage has certainly won them a lot of government contracts in Canberra and Sydney, and I do see that as a competitive advantage that they have. I can only see MAQ getting bigger and better as long as the Tudehope brothers continue to run the business, but I felt their share price had run a bit ahead of itself when they were trading up around $90/share in November and then again in January, then I felt that around $60 they looked like they were worth a punt, but then a better idea came along with what I perceived to be more near-term upside, so I took profits in my SMSF and moved on again.

In terms of your specific query, yes, I reckon they'll fill their new DCs to capacity quite quickly; in fact in the past they did fill at least one of their Canberra centres before it had even been built - so they do sign up customers in advance for capacity once they have a firm date by which they know that capacity will be available for their clients.

Yeah, if I wasn't such a gold bull, I'd be holding MAQ - they are probably an ideal SMSF stock - they'll just keep reinvesting their profits back into their business and growing at a good clip and becoming more valuable. They have more enconomies of scale as they grow, and they probably don't need to announce many new customers when the customers that they already have are so big - like the Australian Federal Government - I'm pretty sure MAQ aren't allowed to announce that they've been awarded the ATO and ASIO and other government departments - many of those departments don't want everybody to know where all their data is stored in terms of a specific location, for obvious security reasons. MAQ is a company I don't get too worried about when I don't hear much from them in terms of regular newsflow, because they always report well.

Eleven consecutive years of profit (EBITDA) growth says it all really. They don't pay any dividends and we don't need dividends from them when the company is making such good returns on capital reinvested from their profits. Now that they've pulled back to below $60 again, I might sell half of my ARB - which is currently one of the larger positions in my SMSF - and reinvest that capital into MAQ. A few bob each way. Two very well run companies, and while ARB may have nearer term upside, MAQ has stronger tailwinds longer term I reckon.

TL;DR: Yep, I reckon they'll fill those DCs as they come online through both existing and new clients, and yes, I reckon that will also boost their cybersecurity and hosting revenue as well over time. Those DCs won't come online very often, because they take so much money and time to buy the land, get the permits, and build them, but as each new one does come online, it's going to significantly boost MAQ's revenue and earnings.

Discl: Holding MAQ here, and will probably also be holding MAQ again in my SMSF soonish - if they can stay below $60 long enough for me to free up some cash and buy some.

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DrJP
Added 3 months ago

@Bear77 Thanks so much for taking the time to write such a great reply. Definitely helps me understand the company better. I have taken a small RL position to motivate me to learn more so I really appreciate the help.

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Bear77
Added 3 months ago

No worries @DrJP I did go ahead and do what I suggested I probably would do: that ARB sell down in my Super (SMSF) and bought back into MAQ while they were still below $60 - on Tuesday - then I did the same thing here on SM (on Wednesday). And today MAQ rose +4.68%, closing up +$2.80 @ $62.61, so I'm glad I didn't waste too much time thinking about it.

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