Forum Topics OCC OCC Bull Case

Pinned straw:

Added 3 months ago

Just a quick update from the latest news. Usage is growing fast. 200 doctors using now at 165 different hospitals and great success rates compared to existing technology. I own in RL and Strawman.


mikebrisy
Added 3 months ago

@Muttty82 I agree this is good news, although it is less about the 200/165 and more about the success rates in the Real World Evidence (RWE), or market surveillance trial.

For example, $OCC cite success rates in the US for Peripheral Nerve Repair procedures as 50% - 70% (Source: $OCC August 2025 Canaccord Growth Conference, Boston), so headlining with numbers of 81.1% and 89.5% with no cases of complications or repeated surgeries in a real world setting, is going to really help the marketing in the US, currently underway.

My only comment would be that as the number of cases in the ongoing RWE trial grows over time, there will probably need to be some further detailed characterisation of the patient dataset and comparator endpoints. That is because success rates in nerve repair surgery vary both according to the specific type of damage being treated, as well as the "endpoints" for how outcomes are measured. So, while the headline precentage numbers look impressive to a retail investor, I am not sure how they would be viewed by a clinical specialist. (Personally, I am starting from quite a low base of understanding in this area.). For example, the 50%-70% is a range across 700,000 procedures across a range of publications, and it is impossible (for me) to tell on reading the release how the population in the RWE trial compares with the global population.

Of course, in getting stuck on that detail I am missing the point, in that this comparison was the focus of the clinical trial, and the RWE study is more about showing whether the impressive results from the clinical trial stand up in real world conditions. It seems that they do.

$OCC is a stock I am watching very closely.

Although it is fully priced at 35 x FY25 revenue of $7.6m , the 2-year CAGR is 34%, and there is a real possibility that US Remplir sales put a rocket under revenue, if not in FY26 then likely in FY27. And of course, there is the potential for further momentum once the EU/UK approvals come through which - given the trial data (both clincal and now real world) and approvals in an increasing number of markets - seems to be a very high likelihood of success.

It is far to early to be calling success for $OCC, but there seems to be no reason why the sales ramp we've seen in Australia over two years, should not be repeated elsewhere, particularly if there is growing evidence of clinically differentiated outcomes.

I added 20% to my RL holding this morning on market open at $1.16. My intention is to progressively add to my current 2.3% RL position over time, as $OCC continues to execute.

21