Forum Topics HPG HPG Bull Case

Pinned straw:

Added one year ago

Great 24 results released today… cashflow positive, decent growth.

8d86be7f1d0b3c7b9a42f26a1ecca4006a5bf1.png

RogueTrader
Added 3 months ago

Some interesting commentary on Hipages Group from Investors Mutual in the AFR yesterday:

Which stock in your fund has the most near-term upside?

Hipages Group is Australia’s largest platform for trade services, connecting homeowners and trades people in a more efficient manner. Strong network effects are driving more consumers to post jobs on Hipages because that’s where the tradies are, while tradies subscribe to find the jobs. As we have seen with Carsales, Seek and REA Group, online marketplaces are typically a winner-takes-all proposition and Hipages is well on its way to being the dominant platform for the trades sector.

The founder-led company has now passed the critical inflection point of generating sustainable cash flow while still growing its top line at double digits, notably guiding to 50 per cent growth in free cash flow in the current financial year. As seen with recent success stories like Catapult and Life360, reaching cash flow breakeven is often a watershed moment for small cap tech stocks.

Hipages’ guidance for the 2026 financial year implies a roughly 15 times price-to-free cash flow multiple, very reasonable for such a fast-growing and dominant business.

https://archive.md/Rlntw

16

DrJP
Added 2 months ago

Hipages looks like it’s reaching an important inflection point. The platform has strong network effects with more homeowners attract more tradies, and vice versa and this dynamic has played out successfully in other online marketplaces like REA, Seek and Carsales.

Importantly, the business is now sustainably cash flow positive while still delivering double-digit revenue growth. Management is guiding to significant free cash flow growth over the next year, which gives confidence that the model is scaling well.

The founder-led team and relatively fixed cost base mean incremental revenue should increasingly translate into higher margins. If execution continues, Hipages could cement itself as the go to place to get trades to your home, replacing Google searches and waiting for quotes. Of course, churn and consumer spending are still key risks to watch, but the trajectory is encouraging.

My main concern is that I wasn't even aware of this company and we recently started down a process of some renovations. It didn't even come on our radars. I only found this company from browsing through Strawman.

10

GazD
Added 2 months ago

As a former holder I'm keeping an eye on this business... I suppose the fact that you weren't aware of it as an option despite renovating could be viewed in a glass half full or empty capacity... Is it cashflow positive despite being so early on its path and you're onto it early? or is it struggling to create any kind of brand awareness and therefore network effects...

12

DrJP
Added 2 months ago

The fact they’re now generating positive cash flow suggests the brand awareness challenge might not be as big a hurdle as I first thought.

But it is almost like there’s a paradigm shift required; most people are used to calling around for “three quotes” rather than posting a job online.

But the underlying model makes a lot of sense for both tradies and consumers, and that’s where the long-term opportunity lies. Definitely worth digging deeper to see if the network effects are starting to really take hold but how do you do that? Google reviews? Speak to tradies?

9

DrJP
Added 2 months ago

9c18dae422db53be647eaaf8b877a722e441e5.png


As of June 2025, hipages had 36,600 subscription tradies on its platform. So 1:10 trade business are using the platform. Maybe this is the number to watch??

Total Subscriptions per year:

FY18 23,000

FY19 24,000

FY20 28,000

FY21 31,200

FY22 35,000

FY23 35,700 (incl. ~3.4k NZ)

FY24 36,700

FY25 36,600


What Hipages said about the decline from FY24 → FY25

  • The company noted that although subscription tradies were broadly stable (~36.7k in FY24 → ~36.6k in FY25), there was some attrition in New Zealand tied to the transition to a full subscription model there.


  • They said this drop in NZ was expected because tradies on success-fee or hybrid models, upon migrating to a subscription fee model, might exit or not renew. The move to full subscription had higher pricing and lower “leakage” but also some loss of imperfect-fit tradies.


  • In Australia, there was a small growth in subscription tradies (about +1%) which helped offset the NZ decline. 


10