Strawman targeted stock pump ? Who's in

Done :) all jokes aside. I believe this is undervalued due to calculated and unrelenting shorting. It does have the potential to increase quickly.

Sell $BOT buy $PNV, nice to see management opening their wallets and purchasing on market. Similar to AIM, Tony had a decent buy in the 90c range

I got on board earlier today in RL

@Schwerms I'm happy to buy your $BOT shares at $0.125!

I think a lot of investors have given up on $BOT and hence doing the kind of trades you are advocating. But I think the fundamentals of the business mean that it is seriously oversold, and there is a chance of a significant recovery when the next couple of sales reports come through. Of course, I could be wrong, and because of that risk, I am just holding my current position.

I'm curious why they didn't take the opportunity to give an 8 week sales update at the recent conference. But perhaps they are being disciplined and trying to stick to regular quarterly reporting, preferring a more substantial full quarter of data to be the next release. That said, I think the market interpreted the lack of an update as an indicator that things are not good, as there was a wave of selling in the days after the conference. Although I don't know what was said in the confernce, the slides did not introduce any new information. And as far as I am aware there have been no research updates from analysts. With the 3 covering analysts having PT's of $0.27 to $2.00 with an average of $0.89, there is a fundamental mismatch between the market and analyst views. For the record, my central view remains $0.35.

However, this is a $PNV forum, so I'll get back on topic!

I agree $PNV looks good (irrespective of shorts and DW buying), and I am in the process of trying to figure out the significance of the recent DFU announcement. I admit it caught me completely by surprise. $PNV were doing clincal work on DFU a few years back, but it all went quiet and I assumed for whatever reason it wasn't competitive against other offereings in the market. Friday's announcement made me sit up.

The issue to work through is that there are a lot of other products in the market going up against the standard of care, NPWT, for DFU. So, I am trawling through other head-to-head studies to see whether the Novosorb result is distinctive. The overall market opportunity is large, and if $PNV can access it, then it coudld give renewed impetus to US sales at a time when the business is now cash generative. So, potentially, it could take the valuation back above $2.00.

Another questoin is whether the surgeons that work on DF wounds are the same as either burns or trauma wounds surgeons, or whether it is an entirely new cohort that have to be reached. And StrawMedics know?

If (and I emphasise I haven't done the work yet) the fundamentals take an uptick, just at the same time as DW starts playing silly buggers with the shorters, then this could enter another interesting upgrade cycle. And as @Nnyck777 has rightly pointed out, once shorts start covering on this stock, the price action can be significant and abrupt.

So, I agree that StrawPeople are right to take notice.

Personally, my eggs are in the $AVH basket, for reasons covered elsewhere. I will take stock once the $AVH Q3 report is in at the end of October.

Disc: I do not hold $PNV at the moment. I hold $AVH in RL and SM.

@mikebrisy thanks for your thoughts on this, I took a very small PNV position while I do some more reading I did read all your recent PNV notes which made only open a small position

I'll just put my BOT response here , nick and Arizona both hold

I think Bot will do well long term as noted in my other posts, however near term I think there are risks of:

Seasonal slowdown, this is seen in Japan so possibly amplified in USA given the USA take-up rates appear lower than Japan

Seasonal GTN dip Jan - Mar

Also management have annoyed me a lot with the lack of information, i don't need orthocell levels of news but somewhere in between would be good.

I am Choosing to sell down and buy back in on the first good news when it comes rather than the opportunity cost of waiting, I think if they had good data they would have put something in the annual report or conference and I am thinking no news is bad news.

I see the shorters are still pushing higher on BOT as well, probably doesnt mean much though.

I do think of one thing with BOT that will stick with me on my investing journey, before nightmare on hyperhidrosis st part 1, they released the announcement to market saying sales are great join the webinar but did not release the slide deck until morning of. This should have been a sell sign I think, my thoughts were if the news is good why does it need a webinar to explain it, you release the announcement and off it goes only bad news needs explaining.

I also like the opportunity with the AIM shareprice weakness with the major holders selling down + the TLX bad news SP reaction. agree with your view on AIM it will be exciting if they pull it off and the encoder deployment last FY gets me hopeful

@Schwerms I totally understand your approach.

In healthcare stocks, I've ridden the rollercoaster so many times over the years that I really don't get bothered by the dips anymore, as long as I have a good enough handle on the fundamentals. But there are still significant risks here, and you touched on a few.

One you highlight - and I am nervous about with $BOT - is if the next part of the sob story is a "summer seasonal slowdown".

I think I have a good handle on GTN and the cyclicality of that - belatedly.

Then the next one is the "Anniversary Effect" - how many patients that tried their 12 month program perceive enough benefit from the product that they come back for another year, and what is the impact of that churn in Year 2, on the overall "net adds" (or "net decline" yikes!!).

The spectre in the back of my mind is that the other antichilineric in the market QBREXA hasn't realy amounted to much.

My thesis on this one has been thoroughly deflated, but I've learned not to be too hasty in judging drug s-curves. A good recent example is $NEU, when DAYBUE had its bad second half year. SP went from $26 to $12, and yet here we are back at almost $20 a year later.

I accept that a lot of investors trade volatility in pharma/biotech stocks, and I've done it a bit myself. But my defaul is to buy and hold to see how the thesis plays out, and in the commercial phase a lot can change over the course of the first year.

That said, I will be looking for some glimmers of light in the 3Q report at the end of October. If there is any monkey business or fancy footwork from management (i.e. narrative shifts to try and explain more bad news), then it might be the final straw for me,

And remember a share that's lost 90% is one that fell 80%, and then halved again. I hope that won't be $BOT!!

Yes I'm not bothered by the GTN I think it's been poorly communicated and better than they report when factoring in PA units, the seasonal slowdown is my biggest concern given our launch data relative to japans.

One note on that comparison though is Kaken already would have had a fully established sales team and probably with forward communication to the derms they would be launching ecclock prior to its actual launch. Maybe that makes the comparison between take up rates not like for like.

im not too worried about the anniversary effect as they reported 95% adherence for insured people (that's my interpretation of that slide from July anyway) and if growth continues the rolling over patients hopefully only cause it to be smaller headline growth not a dip, would be ugly if adherence after a year was bad and it flatline.

Other upside potential is they add something to the platform.

One think i can't decide on is Matt Callahan resigning then selling around 30m shares. Was it a resignation so he didn't need to disclose sales of shares or a genuine medical departure and sales to fund that / balance his exposure if a lot of his money was toed up there. He sold around 33c so at the point he obviously knew 15-20% GTN and the take-up rates wasn't what the market was expecting.

I did wonder the same thing regarding the 80-90% drop comment you put above.

@Schwerms yeah - management communication and behaviour have been an orange flag for me.

And what that means is that I don't have the capacity to give them any wiggle room on future communications. I'll judge everything they say at the next outing absolutely forensically against what was stated and implied before. So much so, that in the week leading up to the results, I'll go through all the old slides, recordings and transcripts, so that my bull-s*** detetector is finely calibrated.

I missed the sell down by Matt, although I think it was more like 20 million shares, wasn't it? It would be fraudulent to fabricate a health-related retirement to sell down ahead of a SP fall, and it would expose the Board and him to subsequent shareholder action. Surely not a risk many would take, morals and ethics aside. I prefer to take it on face value. If health issues make you stand down from running a business, you'd quite reasonably reduce your exposure to that business, wouldn't you? (I know I would) That said, the timing does appear convenient.

Again, applying some learning here, I was critical of the communcations on DAYBUE sales from the former CEO and Commercial VP at Acadia. Once Catherine Owen took over and appointed a new Commercial VP, the clarity of communications improved vastly. Or did they? What it just that the company benefited from the EXPERIENCE of moving from its first year in a new market to its second year? From the depths of bad news, into "its not so bad, after all"? How much was management communcation and how much was the benefit of time in the market, and relief?

Anyhoooo, I'm locked in for 3Q now.

Agree you want the bullshit detector finely calibrated for the next webinar.

Yes I think the sell down was only seen in the updated top 20 holders and you are correct it was 20m, he still holds 54m shares.

Hope I'm wrong and it's all good news in the quarterly I'll be doing a similar refresh before as there is significant upside if its going well

This discussion is very pertinent to me at the moment @Schwerms @Nnyck777 and @mikebrisy

While it pains me greatly to discuss BOT, I am not selling out just yet. This could be the wrong move, time will tell. @Schwerms I empathise with your decision to exit at this stage. The timing of Matts departure, is odd, I agree. At the same time he appears to be still holding a large parcel of shares. Arrrgh.......I flinch at the mention of BOT or the sight of the ticker code!

I have recently secured small holdings of both TLX and AIM.

But this is a PNV Straw. I have been watching PNV for sometime, watching the share price pull back and the shorters have their fun. The recent purchases by D. Williams and L Hoare have pushed me over the edge and I now hold a small position. I don't know what David is up to, but he seems to be throwing a decent chunk of his change at PNV.

Great discussion folks