Forum Topics CSL CSL Business Model/Strategy

Pinned straw:

Added 3 months ago

CSL has always seemed like a black box to me as I couldn’t really properly connect with its business and economics, beyond amazing performance metrics. Just started looking into it and look forward to reading all your reviews. What’s simplifying the early analysis is that whilst there are different divisions doing different things some beyond my capacity to understand, most of CSLs business is collecting blood and selling the stuff they make from it. Maybe it can be thought of as a vertically integrated wholesaler. I took a bit of a look at the prices they charge for what they make from the blood they collect. For example a single dose of certain treatments can cost hundreds of dollars and some patients need them regularly. That simple realisation has me interested in the economics. The contrarian in me is keen to understand it further given the loss of interest in it in the market. It’s currently priced more like an industrial than the high margin seemingly moaty company that it is.

PhilO
Added 3 months ago

I’m getting more comfortable with CSL and taken a small position in my real portfolio. I’ve landed on/applied a broader investing rule for companies I don’t fully understand. If the division I can get my head around is potentially worth close to the current market cap then the other divisions can be viewed as free options and I don’t need to understand them at outset.

The other thing that matters is that debt isn’t such that it can bring the whole thing undone if a division that I do or don’t understand underperforms. This is a similar rationale for my small holding in mineral resources where debt is more of an issue.

This approach opens up a lot of investment opportunities.

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Mujo
Added 3 months ago

I understand the 'blackbox' feeling as it is in biotech. I doubt the institutions, let alone the army of mum and dad investors truly understand everything CSL does, the differences in each treatment, the difference in the health systems in each country they sell into, the quality of the R&D pipeline or whatever risk is being worked on by the competition (synthetic blood etc).

The financials are pretty straight forward to understand though and to me it looks relatively attractive.

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PhilO
Added 3 months ago

Yes. Good point about nobody really fully understanding it. The tricky thing for me when researching a company like this is most of what’s talked about from the company and analysts is the recent marginal changes to earnings. Starting from near scratch, it took me a while just to understand what they broadly do and how they collect and spend money. Even in the plasma collection business, there’s all these collaborations that go on to simply collect the input (ie the blood), which in Australia for example they largely do through the Red Cross, and then turn it into a marketable product which they sell through what seems like an account management approach via hospitals at a solid margin. Beyond their scale, it’s hard to pinpoint exactly what their moat is.

The long term financials certainly paint a glowing picture but I don’t want to invest on that alone. I think this is broadly understood by the market and feel I need to dig deeper. I think I get the major division enough though to feel ok about a small investment. A work in progress.

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