Pinned straw:
I have been having a look at NAN today for the first time, so take this with a pinch of salt.
This looks like a classic razor-and-blades model, with a large percentage of revenue coming from high-margin consumables and servicing, as well as upgrading and maintaining their machines over time. They’ve only rolled out one machine commercially so far (Trophon), and it’s been mainly concentrated in the US (~32k out of 37k units sold worldwide).
The core Trophon business is now mature in the US and is defensive, high-margin, and probably only low single-digit growth going forward, even with the untapped markets in Asia and Europe. (In their FY25 annual report they literally describe Trophon as their “established platform” and “core recurring revenue engine.”) Even if they sold no new units, they’d still likely do ~$150m+ revenue at >75% gross margins, which makes for a very solid cash-generating base.
Nanosonics is now clearly positioning CORIS as its main growth engine, while treating Trophon as the cash cow. This likely explains their low ROE, as they are heavily investing in a product they can’t sell yet (well they can but they are waiting for broader FDA approvals). For context, Trophon development started in 2001 and the first sales weren’t until 2010 so this might still take time, with the company projecting 2026 for commercialisation. CORIS has a much larger TAM, and the FY25 report explicitly says:
“CORIS represents the company’s next major growth platform” and
“a transformational market opportunity… significantly larger than ultrasound probe disinfection.”
This probably explains why the market is comfortable giving NAN such a high PE. They’ve already built a new US manufacturing facility and are recruiting a dedicated CORIS commercial team in Europe, Australia and the US. With ~$160m cash on hand, no debt, and positive cashflow, it seems unlikely they’ll need to raise capital or take on debt to launch CORIS.
While the valuation leaves little margin for error, the company does appear well set up to succeed if they can navigate the FDA process. And given they’ve already done this with Trophon, you’d think they have the experience to pull it off. It’s not a screaming bargain, but if they maintain the current multiple, Trophon keeps funding the business, and CORIS delivers anywhere near the TAM they suggest, a share price of $10–15 by 2028 isn’t hard to imagine.
$4 to $15 by 2028 is a CAGR of ~50%.