Hi @Nnyck777,
I've been an LT investor in RL & on SM and have seen the company consistently grow revenue and earnings despite the less than ideal market returns. The 2 biggest risks I see in CUV are opportunity cost and it being a value trap. However, they do have some very promising avenues for significant growth which I highlight below.
@BoredSaint gave a great summary of the most recent financials and shift, finally, to allowing live analyst questions on their results call. I too believe that the company is fairly valued based on it's EPP growth outlook, with a slight boost in growth available if the regulators allow for Scenesse approval in other countries along with treatment in adolescent's. I don't think the market is really taking into account for the real potential of Vitiligo and also other areas of their "House of Melanocortins" which includes ACTH, Variegate Porphyria and PhotoCosmetics.
While there are clearly risks involved with any new drug in trial phase, the updates provided, especially around Vitiligo have been positive. Being the first mover in EPP makes patients sticky, as switching to a new drug takes time and risk, multiple doses over many months/years are required before any real difference in results would be seen for a superior drug. So, I can't see many switching away from Scenesse to a newly released drug when they've already seen their quality of life improving while taking Scenesse.
The biggest reason I remain a holder is the risk averse nature of the company, the ability to fund all trials and manufacturing in-house which preserves IP, all while building cash reserves to survive an economic downturn and fully fund over 4-years of projected expenses. Many see this slow build up of cash as a lazy balance sheet, but those are often short term focused and aren't willing to hold LT.
I would highly recommend reading the MD (Dr Wolgens) address at the AGM, here. He outlines the clear mindset the Executive team and Board have on how they manage the capital CUV has and the goals they have moving forward.
Lastly, they recently released a promising announcement regarding their Singapore based research lab, who have been working since 2014 on a next generation formulation for a slow release dosage that isn't via inserted capsule and can be injected in liquid form or possibly applied on the skin as a gel, allowing for variance in dosage all the while being slowly released into the patient. Philippe spoke briefly about this at the AGM and said the potential for this is huge as it can be applied by a number of other peptide & melanocortin based drugs. The potential being a far greater addressable market than that of Vitiligo. I would suggest taking the time to watch the AGM, especially Dr. Wolgen's address and his answers to shareholder questions.
I'll look to do an update on my valuation soon, trying to take into account the possibility of Vitiligo hitting commercialisation by the end of the decade.
Held in RL & on SM.