Hi @Schwerms, no I don't, as I haven't seen the report, and it is a bit hard to unpack as $OCC have become less transparent in their revenue reporting, as I think they don't want the market to be able to slice and dice and figure out how much is coming from each product.
Of course, I accept that as a challenge, as ever. :-)
All I can see off Tradingview.com is that the "consensus" revenue forecast for FY26 is $14.1m.
If we look at ANZ, Remplir was launched in FY23, it was used by 65 surgeons over the year, and the distributor purchased 682 units, delivering $0.457m in revenue, implying a unit price then of $670 per unit from the distributor to $OCC.
Now FY26 will get a full year of US sales, and they started with 1,000 units to the distributors with another 1,000 on their way.
Let's assume prices to the US are up 25% on the FY23 number, so $840 per unit. And now let's say that only 2,000 units to the distributors is all we get for FY26, Now I'm not sure how much of the 1,000 units occurred in FY25, but we're just sketching the order of magnitude here amongst friends. 2,000 units at $840 per unit is $1.68m,
I've only just done this calc. and I had $1.5m (low case) and $2.0m (high case) in my model for US Sales in year 1, FY26.
So, what I am intrested in is how much heavy lifting Remplir in ANZ and Singapore needs to do in FY26. (Assuming Canada, Thailand and Hong Kong aren't much ... although if Canada gets going like ANZ did, it could get close to $0.5m with FY26 pricing!)
Striate:
Now let's back Striate out of the revenue.
$2.304m relates to revenue recognition of the BioHorizons upfront payment.
But I believe that I can guesstimate the unit component of Striate.
Here goes.
In FY23 total revenue from sale of goods was $1.9m of which $0.5m from Remplir, meaning that $1.4 was unit sales of Striate.
In FY24 total revenu from sales of goods was $3,0m of which $1.0m was from Remplir, meaning that $2.0m was unit sales of Striate, a growth of 43%.
Assumption - the global dental market into which Striate is playing is massive, so let's assume Striate achievd 40% growth into FY24 and FY25, meaning it makes up $3.9m of FY26 sales PLUS the $2.3 contract revenue recognition.
Bingo - Striate revenue would then by $6.2m in FY26.
That then leaves $14.1 - $6.2m = $7.9m for Remplir.
Remplir:
Let's recap, FY23 = $0.5m and FY24 $1.0m.
But what was FY25?
Well FY25 Sales of Good was $5.2m, but under my assumption this includes $2.0 x 1.4 = $2.8m from Striate.
So Remplir in FY25 was $2.4m.
Let's look at that with some other numbers, to see the trajectory:
FY23: $0.4m, 652 units, 65 surgeons, ANZ
FY24: $1.0m, unknow units, 120 surgeons, ANZ (+150%)
FY25: $2.4m, 200 surgeons, ANZ + Singapore (+140%)
So FY26 of $7.9m would be growth of 230%
But what does that mean for ANZ + Singapore?
Top end: US = $2.0m, means ANZ is $5.9m, which is +145%
Bottom end: US = $1.5m, means ANZ is $6.4m, which is +167% growth
Conclusions
I am trying to get my head around this, given the incomplete disclosures, and I am not sure of the above. It it possible that BioHorizons is actually building momentum for Striate. Afterall, it continued to add new markets during FY25. And if its rate of growth expanded, which is possible, then there is less heavy lifting to be done by Remplir in ANZ.
I am still in the process of playing around with this, to see what I can squeeze out of the company disclosures.
But in the ballpark, I'm guessing $1.5m to $2.0m in the US for Remplir in FY26.
NOW what we really should be focused on is FY27, because the US market for this product is something like 20x ANZ, and if it gets traction in the US, then we could see a massive step up in FY26 to FY27, and that's before we even add UK/EU.
This is why $OCC in the success case has really potential that the market hasn't recognised, in my view.
Still working on this. All numbers above are quick manual calcs. So let me know if you find an error!
Disc: Held