Forum Topics CU6 CU6 Regal Substantial

Pinned straw:

Added 2 months ago

Earlier in the year when CU6 shares were around $2, Phil King at Regal was shorting it. See minute 7 of Alan Taylor interview with Michael Frazis.

Clarity Pharmaceuticals, with chairman Dr Alan Taylor

CU6 is now selling for $5.60 and today Regal revealed they are now substantial. 

In a matter of months Regal went from believing CU6 was an overpriced heap of shit and shorting it, to jamming around $70m into it. No wonder the CU6 share price is bouncing around. 

mikebrisy
Added 2 months ago

@Scoonie at one level it is hard to believe that ANYONE would short $CU6 in recent times at $2.

However, several weeks ago I heard a biotech analyst interviewed on a podcast (GS, I think) and he explained that a big thing in biotech fund management is to understand the newsflow cycle (i.e. clinical trials timelines).

Pre-revenue, big SP movements happen around FDA stage-gate milestones, and not much happens in between. And the "in between" periods can be 1-2 years. So it is apparently commonplace in biotech, to short stocks after milestone events (once price action has calmed), and then to buy back in advance of expected milestones (FDA milestone dates are fairly transparent, although there is risk around them in terms of timing - obviously as well as the outcome itself.)

Understanding this have given me a new lens to consider flows, shorting and pricing for biotech exposed to approval milestones.

(Sometimes, I surprise myself about just how little I really understand about how the capital markets work!)

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PabloEskyBruh
Added 2 months ago

I think I’ve noticed this phenomenon is the US too @mikebrisy. There will still be analyst coverage, but various funds have different interests at different points and short strategies seem to form a big part of that.

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mikebrisy
Added 2 months ago

@PabloEskyBruh yeah, I think it is common practice. What made me take notice was the matter of fact way the commentator mentioned it. It was as if this was something everyone knows about. Except me, that is.

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PabloEskyBruh
Added 2 months ago

I was definitely not in the loop either. I also found it interesting that somewhat implicit in the strategy is the confidence to time that news cycle — and potentially even front-run public announcements. They don’t seem to be concerned (as I am) of good news catching them off guard. For me just holding and accumulating is the safest strategy and the only one I know.

Probably never been a less risky time for anyone who has the knowledge/skill-set to play in that gray space but. The current US Federal Administration has hardly made vigorous enforcement of insider trading laws its priority or focus — and the strong argument could be made that it is all but encouraging and incentivising it.

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mikebrisy
Added 2 months ago

@PabloEskyBruh Yes, I also prefer to make decisions based on a view of long term value, appropriately risked. However, understanding the flows better certainly helps me better understand the price action of the many shares I've held in this space over the years. I also think it might have a bearing on my timing of purchases and sales. For example, If I want greater exposure to a particular idea heading towards a decision milestone, I probably have to pull forward my buy timing, so as to beat the price action of shorts being unwound ahead of the target date. As one example.

However, as you say, it is probably worth being careful (and not too cute) so as to not get caught on the wrong side of a surprise announcement.

A class recent case is $4DX. You might have thought when the 501 approval came through for CT:VQ, ahhh no hurry, the hype will unwind because it is going to take months to get a reimburesement decision, and no-one will sign contracts until that's known. Wrong. Reimbursement came through in a few days.

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