***Edited 09/11/2025***

There has been some good news and milestones achieved since May 2025, which I think are ultimately de-risking for Anteris. However, I was perhaps too optimistic about potential dilution. It appears the market is also concerned about this. I’m redoing my valuation to account for it. I’m assuming average capital to be raised at $7.50 USD (which is where the bulk of outstanding options have their strike price).

Assumptions by 2032 (all in USD until the end)

• Approximately 15,000 DurAVR valves sold per year (about a 10% capture of a conservative estimate of the USA TAVR market).
• Approximately $30,000 in sales per unit with a profit margin of 50%.
• Cash burn of $100 million USD per year until 2032 (6 x $100m = $600m).
• Cash obtained from issue of new capital at average of $7.50 USD per share ($600/$7.50 =80 million new shares.).
• About 120 million shares on issue (up from approximately 40 million today — so about 200% dilution).
• P/E of 15 (again conservative based on growth and runway assumed).
• Gravy not included: Europe; Valve-in-Valve; and any premium unit pricing due to clinical superiority.

15,000 x 15,000 = 225,000,000 earnings

225,000,000 x 15 = $3,375,000,000

3,375/120 = $28.125 per share price

Discounted back by 10% per year to today = $15.87 USD or about $24.45 AUD.

Again, same caveats about the large number of variables — which I maintain are all very conservative. For the record also I don’t actually expect dilution to be this bad. Rather, I’m more making the point that even if it is, there is still value at today’s prices.

*** Edited 08/05/025 ***

Assumptions by 2032 (all in USD until the end)

• Approximately 15,000 DurAVR valves sold per year (about a 10% capture of a conservative estimate of the USA TAVR market).
• Approximately $30,000 in sales per unit with a profit margin of 50%.
• About 60 million shares on issue (up from approximately 38 million today — to factor in remaining options and any further dilutive capital).
• P/E of 15 (again conservative based on growth and runway assumed).
• Gravy not included: Europe; Valve-in-Valve; and any premium unit pricing due to clinical superiority.

15,000 x 15,000 = 225,000,000 earnings

225,000,000 x 15 = $3,375,000,000

3,375/60 =$56.25 per share price

Discounted back by 10% per year to today = $28.86 USD or about $44.00 AUD.

It’s my lowest valuation for a while, but that isn’t a reflection of any wavering conviction. I just wanted to state the case for value very simply this time. My actual investment thesis involves much loftier assumptions, whereas this is just my starting point. You can see how it doesn’t take much optimistic tweaking of any of the variables to generate some pretty staggering potential outcomes.