@Chagsy @mikebrisy I have also sold out today, the upside seems to be reduced and I see better returns elsewhere.

I will be continuing to monitor Neuren, love the company, just seems a bit asymmetrical in the wrong direction right now.

Looking forward to hearing what @mikebrisy has to say when he gets time, as I couldnt make the call

Thank you however for the gentle nudge to do some more maintenance due diligence on Neuren. My quick analysis isn't too far from what has been mentioned above:

• The do not reimburse decision in Canada really hurts the dial, and it means that the likelihood of exceeding $500m USD in a calendar year will be touch and go next year depending on growth in North America.
• EU in Q1 next year is critical now without the USD milestone, as my forward estimates account for them meeting this target by start Q3 next year. Meeting this target will likely double NPAT for next year once you factor in the expenditure for the NNZ-2591 trials.
• Next 12 months will be a waiting game for any material announcements.
• I did some scenario testing in my calculations to play around with royalty payments and timeframe for the $50m payment for exceeding $500m revenue is received. Two years in a row sub $100m NPAT will pose some definite headwinds for the current price and multiple, even though the future could be very bright.

Like others here, I have trimmed my RL position and will likely look to sell the remaining portion in a week or so when i pass 12 month ownership. Have a sell on my SM position as well.

Hi Chagsy,

I appreciate everyone’s insight here. I agree there could be a period of lull over the next 12 months if the market continues to only perceive value from Daybue and continues to ignore NNZ-2591.

The share price still lags the $25-$31 price tag in analyst reports. So on Daybue alone there is still room to lift. Numbers were largely in line with my expectations and Jon has been clear that Q4 was when the traction (or lack there of) of Acadias bolstered sales force is likely to be felt. I think that Q4 may surprise to the upside.

Further to this I anticipate that Neu may receive break through designation for HIE which will be pretty significant. It could also be a catalyst for partnering or further boost takeover talks.

I unlike others here continue to accumulate in the dips. I want to be fully invested and have my 12 months CG discount if a take over offer comes before the completion of Phase 3 which is still a possibility.

I haven’t found a compelling alternative and I have been very happy with Neuren and its management.