@ArrowTrades , you are probably right; if/when CTD comes on, there will likely be elevated volatility. Until you can get an accurate read, the bulls will defend it to some extent, and the bears will dump at any price. Good luck to you. Every time i try this caper, it ends up a cluster, so if you have the skills to execute, well done

i have to have a good think about this one, it is right in my wheelhouse as a likely investment, but even though i did a bit of work on it, never pulled the trigger, while several of the guys i rate and follow did. have to see if there are any useful takeaways from this.

The "tree shake" is about to strip it off all its leaves, flowers, and fruit.

Surely that's just satire?

It reads like satire for sure @thunderhead with all the usual "the share price getting smashed is even better than the share price doing a moonshot" rhetoric, with zero concern for the underlying issues faced by the company and the very negative implications for shareholders... however on some of those sites... let's just say there are people who actually appear to believe that rubbish. It's analogous to religious zeal, and anyone who disagrees is bound for hell.

I mean it is Hot Copper, So I am sure of nothing! Haha

I would have a better inkling if I saw more of that person's posts, but it's the first time I have come across him.

Yeah, HC is a sea of filth, but there are also some excellent posters there (many of whom may be withdrawing sadly because of the cesspool it is).

It is a good example of a post why they have that "great analysis" button to click on!

I know right, that's a hall of fame post

For those who were surprised by the magnitude of both Cochlear's guidance downgrade today (Wednesday 20th April 2026) and the dive in the COH SP down $68.36 or -40.71% to close at $99.58/share, spare a thought for the unfortunate bagholders who have been stuck holding CTD shares. Their Corporate-Travel-Management---Update-on-Financial-Statements.pdf announcement today was not unexpected but the extent of the UK revenue that they have to back out from prior financial years is staggering and continues to grow. It might not get any worse, but even at today's disclosed levels, it's very, very bad. Much worse than we knew of when they were suspended from trading back in August last year. The fact that they remain suspended meant their share price couldn't and didn't fall TODAY, but if and when they resume trading (one day), it will NOT be at anwhere near their last traded price - of $16.05/share.

I don't hold them, but there is a morbid fascination about a company who survives a major short seller attack and then years later it turns out that the bulk of the accusations made by that short seller years ago have proven to be accurate.

Here's some of my notes on that 7 page announcement today:

I have highlighted in red there the headline numbers and reasons. That's not even A$s, that's 118 million British Pounds.

Keep that figure in mind, because CTM have a lot less cash than that, as they disclose later in this announcement, and they are therefore trying to negotiate a settlement with their main "customer" - being the UK Government (specifically the UK Home Office), along with associated bodies like the Greater London Authority - and CTM (ASX: CTD) want to pay this "customer" back over a period of years, as you will see, because that's the only way they can pay them back without becoming insolvent, unless of course they were able to raise fresh capital to cover the hundreds of millions of dollars worth of refunds and repayments. As shown directly below.

Note that CTM were aware of the issue as early as 2022, or at least a fair chunk of it, being almost half of it, i.e. 54.6 million English pounds worth of it (red rectangle above) and they're throwing their former UK CEO under the London bus (orange rectangle above and below), which is convenient, since they have fired him so he can get blamed for everything apparently, except of course for the amazing lack of oversight by the group and the Board.

So now they are suggesting that the former UK CEO may have committed what looks like fraud, as highlighted in the two red rectangles above.

The two paragraphs highlighted in red above are the most damning, IMO, because they detail the extent of the issues as well as that the problem was not confined to the UK Government (the "customer" referred to numerous times today in the announcement) - and that there are investigations being undertaken by "authorities" that CTM intends to co-operate with. That's more than one authority, plural, and I imagine in more than one country as well, with the UK and Australia (ASIC and the ASX) being two countries in which there will already be official investigations being undertaken at this point.

That "Termination" line above, highlighted in orange, and a number of other paragraphs highlighted in orange below are examples of attempts at positive spin by the Board and current management of CTM. They have to do it, but it's laughable to expect people to accept that this was all the work of one rogue manager in the UK and that the Australian head office (for the group) and the company's Board couldn't possibly have known about it. They readily admit in this same document that they all knew about a fair bit of this UK overcharging back in 2022, yet it seemed they promoted that person from UK COO to UK CEO (Chief Operating Officer to Chief Executive Officer), as disclosed on page 2 above (highlighted in orange by me) .

The text highlighted in red above is a warning of a significant writedown of intangibles (goodwill) to come - in addition to the real-money losses already discussed.

Note their current cash and available funding position immediately below - and compare that with their disclosed liabilities so far.

I've highlighted further attempts at positive spin in orange on the pages above.

Source: Corporate-Travel-Management---Update-on-Financial-Statements.pdf [22-Apr-2026]

Little wonder that Jamie Pherous was encouraged to "retire" in early Feb:

Source: Retirement-of-Founder-and-Appointment-of-Acting-Group-CEO.pdf [02-Feb-2026]

We knew it was going to get worse, but this is probably a bigger iceberg than what most people expected back in August.

And it's not over yet.

Thanks@Bear77 some very well respected investors in this one. Dodged a bullet but not because I was clever and am watching with fascination.

yes its funny how we can come across left field stuff that becomes useful later. I was involved in a business that was very fragile, it would later crack badly. i knew this full well, and really had no discretion, and so should have others have known it was gragile, but JP was one of the discretionary investors. in hindsight we are all wise, but how perople invest on the risk/reward spectrum can be an intersting and an indication of overall risk taking, imo. so i was really tempted to invest in CTD, it is right in my sweet spot, but knowing what i did i just wasnt comfortbale. so good luck, good call, maybe a mix, as they often are, who knows.

I do hold this so of course I have picked out information from the company that puts a less-negative spin on it. I listened to the call the other day.

• Yes they did know of issues in 2022 and attempted to address them.
• They had agreements drafted to address the issues and present to affected customers.
• "Former UK CEO was responsible for discussing the letter agreements with the customer, obtaining agreement to the content of the letters and having them signed. The Former UK CEO provided CTM with copies of the signed letter agreements"
• "In late November 2025 (in the forensic review discussed below), CTM became aware of a suggestion that the letter agreements may not, in fact, be authentic. This contradicted the position understood and relied on by the Board."
• This isn't throwing the former CEO under the bus, but it does highlight a lack of governance (checks and balances)
• The UK business is still a profitable, cash generative business.
• There has been no noticeable churn in customers in the UK
• GBP$118M is an extremely large amount - but doesn't represent the cash they need to pay. They have already paid 12M and may be entitled to refunds on tax paid of 24M. Separately there will be a goodwill write down. Best case (with full tax back) the amount is reduced to about AUD$140M. They hold $115M in cash and have $75M in undrawn debt.

So yes it is going to be painful - but it doesn't sound terminal.

All fair points @Scott however do you have any rational explanation for:

• Why CTD management promoted the "former UK CEO" from UK COO to UK CEO after they were already aware of the issues in 2022?
• If they can afford to repay all of the amounts still owing from their cash and unused financing facility, then why are they attempting to negotiate settlements ("commercial agreements", as explained at the top of page 2) with "impacted customers" - "which, if agreed, will provide for refunds over an extended period aligned with CTM's current liquidity position and future anticipated earnings", i.e. they intend to take years to pay these amounts back in full?

And if those negotiations are unsuccessful and the UK Government (who are owed the vast majority of the money) want it all paid back now, do you really think that would not be terminal? 118 million British pounds (£118,000,000) is approximately 222.5 million Australian dollars (A$222,550,000). If you deduct A$12M already repaid and another A$24M in possible tax refunds, that $222.55M reduces to A$186.55 million, not A$140M. If they fully draw their debt, they would have $190m, which just covers that $186.55 million if they get all of the tax refunds they are anticipating, but leaves them with just $3.45 million of working capital. And they would have debt, including any existing debt plus the $75m fully drawn facility that they would need to fully draw to cover the repayments, and that means lending/banking covenants come into play, some of which would almost certainly be breached, particularly if and when they are able to resume trading and market capitalisation could become an issue if it's included as part of one of those banking covenants.

Also, when I say they are throwing him (the former UK CEO) under the bus, I mean that they are saying it's all his fault. That's a fair analogy I reckon.

Good luck with this one but there's a reason why the founder and former MD of this business left the business in the middle of all this. He clearly doesn't see this ending well.

And that's not even getting into their legal fees. They are racking up a huge bill with their auditors and KPMG UK - who they say is continuing to assist them, and they won't be doing that for free, and they also have to defend any criminal or corporate charges that get levied against them, and then there's the class actions from shareholders that are to come. Sure, CTM (ASX: CTD) might have legal liability insurance and/or other insurance, but their insurers would likely argue that the Board and management have been negligent and haven't done their own jobs properly and therefore this situation is NOT outside of their own control because they didn't provide enough oversight and governance over the past 6 years. Any which way you look at it, they are racking up costs right now that are going to eat into their available cash and funding.

25th June 2026: Dow Jones Newswire: 0123 GMT - Recent scrutiny of Australia's audit sector may have materially lifted the bar for Corporate Travel Management's auditor to sign off on the travel agent's accounts, RBC analyst Wei-Weng Chen warns. Chen points out that the ASX-listed company expects to lodge its accounts for fiscal 2025 and the first half of its current fiscal year in August, but has yet to provide a date for finalization of its fiscal 2026 report. He tells clients in a note that issues appear to be widening at CTM, with margins and local revenues now flagged as concerns. RBC has a last-published underperform rating on the stock and a target price of 15.00 Australian dollars. Shares have been halted at A$16.07 since August. ([email protected]) (Thanks @Jimmy)

Google summary from AFR article: RBC Capital Markets analyst Wei-Weng Chen warned that Corporate Travel Management (CTM) faces severe headwinds. He noted that recent negative media attention on the audit sector may have materially raised the bar for CTM's auditor, Deloitte, to sign off on the travel company's delayed accounts. [1]

The heightened pressure follows a deeply damaging UK overcharging and accounting scandal. The broader audit sector has faced extreme scrutiny in Australia—including ongoing investigations into former auditor PwC—making auditors especially cautious. [1, 2, 3]

See here: https://www.afr.com/companies/transport/corporate-travel-s-accounting-woes-spread-from-the-uk-to-australia-20260625-p609z3

Updated

Corporate Travel’s accounting woes spread from the UK to Australia

Ayesha de Kretser, Edmund Tadros and Sarah Thompson

Updated Jun 25, 2026 – 4.45pm, first published at 12.00pm.

Customer overcharging issues that have dogged Corporate Travel Management’s British business have spread to Australia, with the company warning it may have to repay up to $15 million to local clients.

The company confirmed to investors that it would miss a lender-imposed deadline of June 30 to return to the ASX, saying its revenue for 2024 would have to be restated lower, at between $10 million and $15 million.

Corporate Travel shares have not traded since last August.

UK customers want their money back as Corporate Travel battles for survival.  David Henderson

“These amounts primarily relate to rebates or similar payments under certain ANZ contracts, which are generally payable following receipt of an invoice from the customer,” Corporate Travel said on Thursday, its first admission that its woes had spread beyond the United Kingdom.

People briefed on the matter who requested anonymity to speak freely said Corporate Travel might have to increase its payments to customers in the UK to more than £150 million ($287 million), up from £128 million.

The exact amount will depend on how contract terms are interpreted, but Corporate Travel on Thursday said it had found new issues involving margins charged for air travel in the UK.

The company told investors it was still assessing the repayments, confirming that it would miss its deadline to return to the ASX.

Lenders have extended that deadline to August, at which time the company’s shares will not have traded for 12 months.

Corporate Travel revealed last November that it had overcharged the British government £80 million and would need to repay that money.

By April, that figure had ballooned to £128 million, with the board admitting it had known about the overcharging issue for at least four years.

If the company does not issue its accounts by the end of August, it could be delisted, leaving investors with little chance of exiting their positions.

Shares in Corporate Travel stopped trading after Deloitte – which took over from long-time auditor PwC – uncovered discrepancies in accounts dating back years, delaying the release of the last financial results.

“We recognise the delay is deeply frustrating for shareholders and acknowledge the uncertainty it has created,” said Corporate Travel’s acting chief executive, Ana Pedersen.

“As we move through the final stages, the remaining tasks are interdependent, and we are working through them carefully and with rigour, to ensure a thorough and appropriate outcome.”

Repayment plan

Corporate Travel said it would update the market when it had finalised discussions with customers, including the UK government, as it tried to convince them to agree to an 18-month repayment plan.

The company also needs HSBC, Westpac and Commonwealth Bank to sanction access to its debt facilities to repay the money. Those discussions have been further complicated by Deloitte’s inability to sign off on its audited accounts.

People briefed on the matter said auditors at Deloitte – who flagged the issues as soon as they took over from PwC – were likely to issue a highly qualified audit report drawing attention to a range of issues.

In line with the audit, Corporate Travel has written off the entirety of its goodwill in the UK for £92 million.

It also expects to impair $77 million in goodwill from its business in Australia and New Zealand and about $US49 million ($71 million) from its North American division.

“The impairments in the ANZ and North America segments reflect various factors including a more conservative forecast on growth rates, increased cost of capital and investment in governance,” it said.

RBC Capital Markets analyst Wei-Weng Chen said the likelihood of Corporate Travel returning to trading on the ASX was decreasing.

“With issues continuing to arise even at this late stage, we see the pathway to a re-listing narrowing,” Chen told clients.

“We also view recent negative media attention on the audit sector as another unfortunately timed headwind for Corporate Travel – we fear the bar for Deloitte to sign off on accounts may have now materially risen.”

--- ends ---

Source: https://www.afr.com/companies/transport/corporate-travel-s-accounting-woes-spread-from-the-uk-to-australia-20260625-p609z3

Related

Street Talk

Corporate Travel in safe harbour, wrangles with lenders over UK debts

Street Talk

Corporate Travel in safe harbour, wrangles with lenders over UK debts

Sarah Thompson, Kanika Sood and Emma Rapaport

May 31, 2026 – 2.39pm

It’s been almost nine years since VGI Partners declared Corporate Travel Management rotten to the core, and nine months since shares in the ASX-listed agency last traded after the detection of wrongdoing in its British business making it impossible for auditors to sign off on its books.

And the end could finally be approaching.

...Click here for more: https://www.afr.com/street-talk/corporate-travel-in-safe-harbour-wrangles-with-lenders-over-uk-debts-20260531-p602en

Disclosure: Not held.