@Jimmy there is no doubt in my mind that $TLX has copped negative sentiment over the last year. However, in this case, I believe the sentiment is company-specific and only partly coloured by wider market risk-off sentitment. The sentiment has been well-earned, although is probably over-done.

Almost a year ago I posted a valuation of $30 ($25-$40 as a "guesstimate"), and in my haste to put something down, I regret underplaying the risk and reward profile around this business.

In my view, it has liittle - if anything - to do with whether the company can hit to US$800-US$820m revenue guidance - it surely will.

First, although the global biotech sector has had mixed performance over the last 2 years, $TLX completely decoupled from the recovery in this sector that occurred in the last few months of 2025, where the sector almost recovered the peaks last seen before the rate Fed hiking cycle.

Why? There are four reasons:

1) Where to from here for Illuccix/Gosellix?

2) Pixclara/Zircaix - management credibility on the lione for future developments

3) The market doesn't buy into the integrated supply chain model

4) Theranostics - high development risk

1) Where to from here for Illuccix/Gosellix?

Illuccix growth is maturing quite rapidly, and it is unclear the extent to which Europe and RoW sales growth will be powerful enough to sustain growth declines as US faces ongoing price compeition and regulatory uncertainty. As for Gosellix, to what extent will this expand the combined market share versus cannibalise the existing Illuccix share? No data as yet.

In a bearish view, the segment will see increased competition and pricing pressure, and if Gosellix primarily cannibalises the existing Illuccix share, then perhaps the combination will see revenue climb from US$610-640m in 2025 to perhaps achieve a peak of US$750m in 2027 or 2028 and decline thereafter.

Of course, in the bullish view: Gosellix exapnds overall market share and addressible market, Illuccix/Gosellix gain material, new indications, and - most importantly - the BIPASS trial allows the products to be used earlier in the patient journey (this is the biggie). In this bullish case, you could see Illuccix/Gosellix continue to grow for another 5-8 years, perhaps even reaching combined sales of $1.5 to $2.0 bn, with a strong plateau.

So, solely on the basis of Illuccix/Gosellic, $TLX could have a value of anywhere from c. $7 to c. $20+ - a pretty wide range.

There's a lot of newsflow/data to unfold on the commercial products this year which can drive the SP either way.

2) Pixclara/Zircaix - management credibility on the lione for future developments

The 2025 knock-backs for Zircaix and Pixclara have, in my view, led the market to take a bearish view on the value of the entire pre-commercial portfolio. Management credibility is on the line because they are adamant that both imaging agents will be approved by the FDA after resubmission.

Pixclara: The FDA issued a Complete Response Letter (CRL) saying the original NDA couldn’t be approved as submitted because it wants additional confirmatory clinical evidence and revised analysis to support approval. Telix has since agreed with the FDA on a resubmission pathway and is preparing an updated NDA with the requested data. They believe that have all the necessary data. We'll see.

Zircaix: The FDA also issued a CRL for this kidney cancer imaging agent, citing manufacturing and chemistry, manufacturing & controls (CMC) deficiencies and the need to demonstrate the commercial production process is comparable to that used in clinical trials. Telix is working with FDA on remediation and expects to resubmit once the additional data are provided. Management have been pretty positive on this, but I have been unable to glean any insights as to what is involved. If they can't prove equivalence, then it will be a long road ahead!

Each of these products, if approved faces a US TAM in the order of $US500m, so potentially, could achieve sales in the low US$100m's. Approval this year and early sales in 2027 would be a boost to the revenue trajectory and, importantly, underpin the market's faith in management ability to commercialise new products.

In the event that both are approved in 2026, I believe we would see a strong postive re-rating of the company, out of proportion to the actual modest value of these products, because I believe that market would ascribe increased value to the overall development portfolio. Management credibility is at stake.

3) The market doesn't buy into the integrated supply chain model

$TLX has invested heavily in the last two years in its integrated supply chain. This capital intensive part of the business has materially reduced margins while adding only modest revenue. It is a preinvestment to give $TLX the global footprint to be able to produce and supply its products. In the short term, it is a drag on the valuation, IMO. The investment will pay off handsomely IF $TLX achieves greater commercial success.

4) Theranostics - high development risk

The Theranostic platform is - as yet - unproven and subject to the normal development risk. When the market is bearish on management and the company prospects, it is likely undervalued, and when the company is aglow with approvals and positive sentiment, it is subject to speculative froth. At the moment, negative sentiment is weighing heavily.

Conclusions

@Jimmy I agree with your overall view that $TLX is likely materially undervalued at the moment. But in agreeing, this is in the context that there is a very wide range of outcomes for the company from here (which is why it is in my portfolio).

For such a speculative position, my 4.5% RL holding is about as much as I am prepared to hold. I'm not adding more capital no matter how "cheap" it gets.

One thing is for sure, 2026 is going to be a very interesting year, as the chart below showing the key catalysts for the year, shows. The ones I am focused on are:

• Illuccix sales
• initial Gosellix sales through 2026 - probably focused on H2 2026
• Illuccix/Gosellix revenue guidancee
• Illuccix China decision
• Newslfow on BiPASS (not so much enrolment, but anything about results - potentially a very material catalyst)
• Pixclara FDA decision
• Zircaix FDA decision
• TLX5910Tx Phase 1 data readout

Many of the other "catalysts" are softer, and I think unlikely to move the needle (start of a trial, site activations, patient enrolments etc.)

How the market views $TLX at the end of 2026 will, in large part, rest on the balance of these. In the event that all are positive, the upside is huge, and from $11 today, there is downside potential back down to $5-$7 if the news is more bad than good IMO.

In any event, that's how I'm thinking about it.

I probably should update my valuation for $TLX and I will do this after the HY results. Importantly , I will try and do a better job of reflecting the risk/reward profile around any expected value.

As for the Shorts @Schwerms ... "...haters gonna hate..." but it underscores that there is a plausible bear thesis, as I've tried to make clear.

Disc: Held (RL 4.5%)

Only thing I see is the shorts up at 11% have been steadily climbing for a while...

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=TLX