@Magneto This is something I have been thinking about a lot lately.

It strikes me that trust is breaking/broken in many facets of life. The rise of Trump has only accelerated this.

It's very hard to know which way is up. As a result, I wonder if people are chasing a place to hold their wealth that they can easily understand. A physical store of value that has a track record going back thousands of years.

I think that in the West, we have lost sight of the fact that there are billions of people around the world who have and continue to, store their wealth in precious metals.

I appreciate the use case for Bitcoin, at the same time, I wonder are people wanting to get back to basics. To be able to physically hold their wealth, in a value storage method that is understood by everyone.

I imagine that gold value would drop away if Trust returned in a meaningful way.

I think it's just a result of how most people view it as a "risk-on" tech stock @Magneto

It's a terrible and misguided take, but that's just how it is at this stage. Even if it does trigger all the maxis that see it as the ultimate safe haven.

Gold just has a much longer track record, much more understood, and much deeper liquidity. When traditional players need risk off, they're just going to go with what they know.

I suspect this drop in BTC will purge a lot of the tourists and degenerate speculators, and as coins rotate into stronger hands a new base of support will build and set the stage for the next leg higher. That tends to be how it has played out in previous cycles.

Given the macro backdrop, I like both. But longer term my view is that btc will do better.

Are you increasing your holding at these levels or do you think it has further to fall? Or you already have as high an allocation as you are willing to go?

The whole look it's on sale I better buy more what a bargain idea...

I’ve only just come across Giovanni Santostasi’s work on power laws and bitcoin. As a doctor I’m used to seeing people try to fit lines of best fit to all sorts of hopeful associations but the R2 values (correlation coefficients) are striking for bitcoin regarding price vs time, holders vs time, hash rate vs time. Pretty much any metric is not exponential but logarithmic (this may not be perfectly expressed for the pedants I hear you).

As a long term holder, I’m happy to buy at a price which is about half of the price predicted by the power law which has predicted the long term price incredibly accurately.

so what price? Today’s price

@lowway it was barely above USD60K when I logged in this morning for the first time. I saw some chart today that indicated based on patterns that it could hit, $14k since it hit the USD 60K mark. I've never been able to get my head around that sort of charting, but I am going to be very interested in what happens from here.