Forum Topics AIM AIM Opportunity or Risk

Pinned straw:

Added 4 weeks ago

Seeing a lot of commentary about software/SaaS stocks getting hammered because “AI is going to eat them” — particularly with regards to AIM.

Is this actually a misreading of AIM’s positioning? We have heard directly from Tony during straw meetings that AI is not a threat to the business, and that it is actually a tailwind for their company. So is this a buying opportunity?

  • AIM’s core products — live captioning, transcription, translation — have already been transformed by AI. Their LEXI platform is essentially AI at the centre of the service, and that’s where tech revenue growth is coming from, not from legacy human-led services.
  • Technology revenue has grown strongly, margins have expanded, and global adoption is increasing.
  • Analysts and investors (e.g., Mereweather Capital) have specifically noted that AIM benefits from using AI models internally, not competing as a standalone language model provider.
  • The market sell-off seems more about short-term sentiment on tech/AI rotation rather than any fundamental shift in AIM’s TAM (Total Addressable Market) or competitive advantages.


So the provocative question: Is AIM actually one of the ASX SaaS names best positioned for AI-driven growth — rather than most at risk from it?

What do we think — is Mr. Market overreacting to AI headlines here?

twee
Added 4 weeks ago

Really comes down to whether you agree with the encoder as the moat. With the proliferation of AI tools for transcription and otherwise perhaps the barrier to self-implementation is lower than ever before (example of new transcription model on hacker news today https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46886735). In my view, AIM"s customers, legacy broadcasters, are dinosaurs in a streaming age, so outsourcing part of the tech stack to someone else makes sense for them. There is definitely a consolidation risk in these kind of customers (ITV and BBC merge when?) but as long as AIM can keep pace it seems palatable for now

This is not simple to understand, the crayon level thesis is missing. Combine this with undeniable uncertainty, it's rational for the market to say show me the money/results.

Sentiment wise, this is more speculation, but I take Tony's recent webinar comments to mean EMEA growth is likely to soften as notable. This is a narrowing of the bull case pathway to just growth in new products rather than new customers and new products. Interested to see if that plays out in the HY results.

Overall, the bull case rests on new product growth, LEXI voice and AI, which are both enabled by AI. You are not paying much for this optionality at the current price.

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Strawman
Added 4 weeks ago

I added a little to my Strawman portfolio today @pubenvelope . Down 50% from the 52-week high, it seems like a decent chance to add more. (queue a further 90% drop from here..lol)

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Schwerms
Added 4 weeks ago

Wow it really has been hammered down from the 90c highs, I am still in the wait and see it actually start turning camp it feels like a slower transition than expected but they have gotten a decent amount of encoders out there, whether they hold strong as a moat is still to be seen though. Should know a lot more after the half year.

There is a lot to pick from in the discount bin at the moment though..

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mikebrisy
Added 4 weeks ago

@pubenvelope @twee @Strawman @Schwerms I've been sorely tempted to add here.

However, I have a decent enough position at 6.5% RL after the hammering, having already shot my bolt adding between $0.70 and $0.80 (oh, those glory days).

I've decided not to add more, because I want to see some evidence that Lexi Voice and Lexi AI get sales traction. We've had the vision and strategy, and we've heard about the expected sales cycle, and LinkedIn has had a constant stream of globe-trotting visits for conference demos and prospective clients (e.g., UN) and excitement.

For me, now, it is about delivery.

The US broadcast dominance and EU accessibility regulation sugar hit, don't get me to the valuation. The new products have to deliver and 2026 is the year to start to see this ... for Lexi Voice, anayway.

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pubenvelope
Added 4 weeks ago

Appreciate the responses and hearing your thoughts. After some consideration, I decided to purchase another parcel yesterday by recycling an underperforming stock (Proper Funeral Partners). Ultimately you have a market that is suddenly fearful of AI and what it can do (whether that is irrational or not regarding timing i.e. why now?), and a bunch of companies that have all been swept up collectively into the discount bin. Some belong there and others don't. AIM have started to come out of their cocoon last year if you will, transitioning into their new LEXI model with less overheads. I believe we will see increasingly better cashflows this year and the market will again re-rate AIM at least back to where it was in the 70-80 cents. What I am looking for after that is what @twee has said - if the encoder is indeed a strong moat strategy and if that will lock in customers for the foreseeable future or not.

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Bear77
Added 4 weeks ago

When the world is aggressively selling down anything to do with AI, particularly any company that could be affected negatively by AI then I would suggest waiting until the shares are no longer in a downtrend (over 90 cps 4 months ago - in October - to close today at 52.5 cps and down over 6% today), especially when AI is in the company's name (AI Media Technologies).

It's not about value right now, it's about picking your spots. Believing a company is good value at current levels won't stop it falling further if sentiment is still strongly negative. The same selling pressure will continue, until it doesn't, and when it doesn't, i.e. when the company's SP starts rising again for a few days in a row, would likely be a much better time to be topping up, or buying in. Just my own opinion based on 40 years of watching the market. But do what works for you.

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tomsmithidg
Added 4 weeks ago

I agree @Bear77 , my favourite is when a turnaround share I am interested in buying climbs in the first 3-4 days of the trading week, often there will then be a dip on the Friday where I can jump in. As they say on The Anchorman, "60% of the time it works Every Time".

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jcmleng
Added 4 weeks ago

Agree too @Bear77. I am braced for a post results smack, for the few software companies that I hold and that will report, however good it is. So have and will stay completely on the side.

Planning to prep the levels that it can fall to pre-results, let the results come out, experience the carnage, and only then start nibbling.

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pubenvelope
Added 4 weeks ago

Appreciate this perspective @Bear77. My entire investor upbringing was based around value investing and not to time the market. It's the 'buy and let time do it's thing' philosophy, resulting in my actions of buying at 54 cents. If I'm right about the company, I will have made a good decision in time. In saying that, your comments are exactly the pearls of wisdom I truly value and potentially would have made my good decision a better one. Nothing beats time spent in the 'trade' and the exposure one can only acquire through the years. I will add this to my list of nuggets I've learnt so far along the way that will no doubt continue to grow. Thank you for sharing!

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thunderhead
Added 4 weeks ago

It's the classic saying - "don't fight the trend!"

Many learn that the hard way after repeatedly getting punched in the face over time, yours truly included. Sometimes you still can't help yourself from time to time, so you better be darn sure of the investment case if you decide to dive in anyway :)


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