I know right @SudMav , where is @Bear77 when you need him? He's going to be pumped that all the stuff he sold out of has fallen so he can buy back in cheaper I'd reckon. What about you @BkrDzn , you're a gold mine aficionado, can you shine a light on what's going on here?

With an estimated annual revenue of $468.7 million (Calculated as 65,000oz x $7,211 AUD/oz) and a market cap of $507.4 million, yeah I'd reckon it's undervalued.

Here’s what AI reckons

As of 13 March 2026, Meeka Metals Ltd (ASX: MEK) shares are experiencing a significant sell-off, dropping 14% to $0.172. 

Key Reasons for Today's Sell-Off

• Gold Sector Weakness: A broader downturn in the gold industry is impacting miners like Meeka Metals.
• The US Federal Reserve recently elected not to cut interest rates, strengthening the US dollar and putting downward pressure on gold prices.
• Macroeconomic Volatility: Escalating Middle East conflict has triggered a "furious" global market rout, with the ASX losing billions in value over recent days.
• Investors are rushing for safety, leading to an exodus from equities, particularly in the materials and mining sectors.
• Institutional Placement Effects: The stock continues to feel the pressure from a recent $60 million institutional placement conducted at a discount of 15 cents per share.
• Such placements often lead to short-term share price dilution and downward adjustments toward the placement price.
• Quarterly Rebalance Anticipation: S&P Dow Jones recently announced that Meeka Metals will be added to the S&P/ASX 300 Index effective 23 March 2026.
• While inclusion is generally positive, it can lead to increased volatility as funds rebalance their positions ahead of the effective date

As of 13 March 2026, Meeka Metals Ltd (ASX: MEK) has transitioned from a developer into a cash-generative gold producer, though it continues to invest heavily in expanding its operations at the Murchison Gold Project.

Cash Position and "Burn"

Strong Cash Reserves: As of 31 December 2025, Meeka reported $67.4 million in cash and gold.

Shift to Positive Cash Flow:

The company generated $23.9 million in mine operating cash flow during the December 2025 quarter—a 91% increase from the previous quarter.

Net mine cash flow turned positive at $4.1 million, recovering from a $9.2 million deficit in the September 2025 quarter.

Reinvestment ("Burn"):

Meeka spent $19.8 million on growth capital expenditure last quarter, primarily targeting underground development and mining equipment.

Exploration spending remains lean (approx. $125,000 per quarter) as the focus shifts to in-pit grade control and immediate production.

Murchison Gold Project: 2026 Milestones

The project is currently in a "rapid ramp-up" phase following its first gold pour in July 2025.

Plant Throughput Expansion (March 2026 Quarter):

Installation of a larger mill feed chute and new screen deck is currently underway.

These upgrades aim to lift processing capacity from 550,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) to 600,000 tpa.

Underground Development:

Andy Well Mine: Underground development accelerated by 136% last quarter. Ore extraction is steadily increasing to feed high-grade material to the mill.

Turnberry Mine: Preparations for a second underground mine at Turnberry are currently advancing.

Production Targets:

The company is targeting an average of 65,000oz per annum over the first seven years, with a peak of 76,000oz expected in year five of the current 10-year plan.

Toll Processing:

A toll processing agreement for 200,000 tpa is scheduled to commence in late March 2026, providing an additional immediate revenue stream.

At current spot gold prices (approx. $7,211 AUD/oz on 13 March 2026), Meeka Metals (ASX: MEK) is predicted to generate approximately $339.9 million AUD in annual pre-tax free cash flow at its target production rate of 65,000 ounces per annum.

Annual Earnings Breakdown (Estimated)

• Annual Revenue: $468.7 million AUD
• Calculated as Calculated as 65,000oz x $7,211 AUD/oz

• Operating Costs (AISC): $128.8 million AUD
• Based on the project's All-in Sustaining Cost (AISC) of $1,982/oz.
• Annual Pre-Tax Free Cash Flow: $339.9 million AUD
• Estimated margin of $5,229/oz [Calculation: $7,211 - $1,982].
• Sensitivity: For every $100/oz increase in the gold price, annual pre-tax free cash flow increases by approximately $6.5 million AUD (based on 65koz production). 

Key Financial Context

• Project Feasibility Comparison: The original December 2024 Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) assumed a gold price of only $4,100 AUD/oz, which projected an average annual EBITDA of $136 million AUD.
• Current Margin: At today's record gold prices, the project's operating margin has expanded by nearly 75% compared to the original feasibility study assumptions.
• Profitability Horizon: Analysts expect the company to turn its first full-year profit in 2026, with forecasted earnings of approximately $43 million AUD as production ramps up.

I have heard a rumour (i.e. production challenges) that comes with no details that make it sound likely. At this stage I wouldn't have a confident fundamental reason to explain the sell off. I managed to speak to Tim from MEK this arvo and no indication of anything going wrong from my queries. Some apparent rain challenges which can slow things down a bit but nothing that would appear to move the dial. Beyond on that, the expansion study remains on track for release this quarter.

Technical wise, chart broke down so selling can beget more selling in that instance. $0.20 was support and the 200dma so both quite critical. Volume says some one of size driving it. Another speculation is that MEK might get pushed out the GDXJ. Tiny holding in the ETF at <0.1% but still ~77m shares in MEK. Rebal is out overnight and apparently the ETF operator can execute ahead to avoid front running.

Overall, I have nothing overly insightful or useful to add lol.

@BkrDzn both the commentary around your discussions with Tim and the GDXJ are both insightful. Will be watching to see what happens with the news flow on both items

I'm much the same, and unfortunately don't have much of value to add to this one. I saw it as cheap in the low 20s so topped up existing holding at those levels.

Have noticed their flights filling up lately as they fly in and out of the same terminal as the one I FIFO from. Increase in contractors (and costs), however this shouldn't be of surprise given they have noted an increase in ops and projects to drive growth.

Hi Guys, i think Meeka got belted primarily as a sector wide sell off from the sector flagship NST Northern Star shocking the market with yet another production downgrade in space of few months.

Very cranky market in general, let alone for any dissapointing news.

Reckon Meeka just collateral damage from general "gold producers production forecasts can't be trusted" thematic of the day.

Agree with you all that see more upside risk than downside at these levels, barring a complete gold price meltdown (which seems very unlikely in a world that feels like it's going to sh*t!)

I'm going to do a little honework but looks like good value

https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/gold-giant-northern-star-crashes-to-earth-after-another-guidance-cut-20260313-p5oa50