Nobel Helium Part 4 - What's it worth?

There’s a moment in a story where you realise the plan isn’t working. For me, that moment came after the first drill — not a disaster, not a breakthrough, a result that sat in the grey zone. It didn’t confirm the model, it didn’t kill it either, the company simply ran out of room to pretend the plan was still working.

Funding pressure built fast. With the share count stretched, a market with no appetite for more dilution, issuing script became a non‑starter, so they leaned on loans, momentum drained from the story, a slow stall that left the company exposed.

A reset became unavoidable, the new team stepped in with a quiet, competent posture focused on rebuilding the foundation rather than selling a dream, this is where the real work began.

Conviction didn’t arrive in a rush, it arrived through work. When the announcement came through, I wasn’t happy or sad, I just wanted to know if they could do better. So I started researching the people stepping in. The more I dug, the more I liked. A few of them poured money in as loans, the story sharpened again. They paused the rush, took the time to clean the structure rather than trying to fix everything on the fly. When you do that, you miss things, I know I do. The more I listened to their webcasts, the more reports I read, the more I liked what this team was doing, the more I trusted the direction they were taking.

In management I was always taught to build a team around you who know more than you do. The new team doesn’t just bring knowledge, they bring depth, they bring people who are experts in their field. Some look at that and wonder if we’re spending money wisely. I see belts and braces. Every extra layer of expertise, every piece of additional research, every specialist they bring in increases the odds that the next drill hits what we’re chasing.

So where are we now?

The way I read the story, we’ve almost finished rebuilding the scaffolding. The frame is stable, the plan is clear, the drilling locations and depths are fine‑tuned. We’re finally at the point where drilling is about to start. I say finally because, like everyone else, I want to see the drill bit turning. At the end of the day the drill bit does the talking. No helium, no discovery, no company‑making moment.

So that’s where we stand — a rebuilt structure facing a real test. Everything up to this point has been preparation. Not noise, not delay, preparation. The team is deeper, the plan is tighter, the targets are refined, the scaffolding is almost complete. Now we’re stepping into the part of the story where preparation meets geology. No shortcuts, no excuses, no hiding behind process. The drill bit turns, the rock answers, the truth arrives.

The opportunity I see going forward is a huge helium discovery. This is going to sound lame, it’s hard to put real numbers on it. You can try to model it, we all know the formula — W amount of helium, X to extract it, Y to process it, Z to ship it — and you end up with a figure that looks neat on paper. The problem is the numbers here are too big. They break the model — well, my model. If someone wants to have a go, please do, I’ll be very interested in what you come up with. They push past what a small company can handle on its own.

You can try and put some numbers on it. We have W helium. In this case W is 225.5 Bcf — the mean unrisked prospective. The .5 alone, using conservative pricing, is worth over $100 million. And that’s just half a Bcf. When you start scaling that across the full model, the numbers get ridiculous. As for what it costs to extract it, that’s X — another huge number. Then you’ve got Y to process it, Z to ship it. On paper it all looks neat. In reality the scale blows the model apart.

That’s why we need a joint‑venture partner who builds big things. Someone who knows how to take a discovery of this scale and turn it into a real project. How much we get to keep is unknown. I trust our crew to look after us, to do the best deal they can. I’ve tried to put a dollar figure on it, I get stuck every time.

And that’s exactly why a JV isn’t optional, it’s structural. When the upside sits in the hundreds of billions of cubic feet and even half a Bcf is worth over a hundred million dollars, you’re not talking about a small‑cap project anymore. You’re talking about infrastructure, processing, pipelines, liquefaction, long‑term offtake — the kind of stuff only a major can build. The geology might hand us something extraordinary, but the execution requires someone with deep pockets, deep experience, and the ability to turn scale into reality.

A discovery this size doesn’t get monetised by a junior. It gets proven by a junior, then built by a heavyweight. That’s the model. That’s the path. That’s why the partner matters more than the spreadsheet. You can model W, X, Y, Z all day, but once the numbers get this big, the maths stops being the limiting factor. Capability does.

So here’s where I stand going into this drill. We’ve rebuilt the structure, we’ve deepened the team, we’ve tightened the plan, and we’ve finally reached the point where the only thing left is the part that actually matters — the drill bit cutting rock. Everything up to now has been preparation. Necessary, frustrating, expensive, slow preparation. But preparation all the same.

I’m not pretending the risk is gone. I’m not pretending the outcome is guaranteed. I’m not pretending I can model a basin‑scale helium system with any precision. What I am saying is this:

The setup is stronger than it’s ever been.

The team is better than it’s ever been.

The opportunity is bigger than anything a junior can handle alone.

And the truth arrives the moment the bit turns.

That’s the posture. Clear‑eyed. Disciplined. No fantasy. No excuses. Ready for whatever the rock gives us.

If it hits, the scale is enormous.

If it misses, we take the truth and move forward.

Either way, the next drill decide the story.