Forum Topics TNE TNE TNE valuation

Pinned valuation:

Valuation deleted

Karmast
Added 4 weeks ago

Very detailed and rational update as usual @mikebrisy

Of all the valuations I’ve done, TNE is probably the easiest re confidence in the input numbers given how incredibly consistent their business performance is and for such a long time.

Of course some kind of black swan could come along but in the absence of such I’m aligned with you on what price range I’d be adding or trimming this year.

14

mikebrisy
Added 4 weeks ago

@Karmast thanks. I agree. Given the long track record as well as the runway ahead and the nature of the customers, you really do need to think about how both revenue and margins will evolve over the next decade, at a minimum.

I like the way the lower revenue growth/lower margin DCF scenarios line up with the lower P/E calculations, while the higher revenue growth/higher operating leverage cases line up with the high P/E calculations. Doing the DCF model has got me really comfortable with the P/E scenarios for 2030 (35/40/45).

I also think it is remarkable how $TNE has shaken off the recent Agentic AI valuation funk. There's no doubt in my mind that it was was over-valued at $40, but it has bounced quite hard from its $20 "SaaSsacre" lows. I put that down to 3 things: 1) the recent guidance upgrade and 2) $TNE comes out really strongly on the various frameworks for evaluating AI moat strength and 3) they are leaning heavily into "we are the Agentic AI tool for governments and education."

(Oh, and while I am at it, I just spotted that the 4th row of my Outputs Table in my Valuation (2035 EPS) was pointing to the wrong place in my model; 2040 not 2035! (The error was obvious when you look at the numbers - which is how I picked it up - but in a few seconds, it will be no more!)

18