Forum Topics AVH AVH Avita Medical Ltd General Discussion
Bear77
Added 4 years ago

Hi umop3pisdn, as Admin says below - that was entirely due to the consolidation which resulted from AVH moving from FPO (fully paid ordinary) shares to CDIs that are based on the AVH primary listing on the NASDAQ now (in the USA), and the associated SP (share price) rise (the AVH SP rose by a factor of 20 times, although they are no longer technically shares, they are CHESS Depositary Interests - known as CDIs - but we generally refer to everything that is listed on the ASX as shares - as a general term), which temporarily made it look like the weighting of AVH in the Strawman community had risen by twenty times.  That has all been fixed now.  If you click here, you will see that - as of right now (11:48am Eastern time), no Strawman member has added AVH to their portfolio for two months.  In fact there has been no AVH trading activity at all here for two months (buys or sells).  Plenty of discussion, but no trading, so the move you refer to was just an aberation due to the consolidation of the shares - where there are now 95% less shares on issue here - and they are now CDIs not shares - and their individual value has risen aprox. 20 times.  As explained further below, the total dollar value of each holder's AVH position remains roughly the same but they just hold a lower number of CDIs (than the shares they held before) and the value of each is now greater, but it all works out roughly the same.

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umop3pisdn
Added 4 years ago

Interesting. I placed an order that was filled on the 3rd which isn't showing up. Also my Strawman cash has unexplainably been credited ~1.8 million.

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Bear77
Added 4 years ago

If only that cash was real! You do have 230 AVH shares/CDIs in your Strawman.com portfolio umop3pisdn between your 9SP and PPH shares - and they're currently worth $1,994.10, which is what you paid for them (230 x $8.67 each). There's a 0% gain/loss, because the price hasn't moved. The trade only went through on Friday afternoon at Friday's closing price. As far as the $1.865 million of cash in your account, that is based on how much cash you would have available if all of your "sell" trades (for NEA, TNT & AR9) went through at the prices you have nominated. That will NOT happen. For instance, you have nominated a sell price for AR9 of $9/share and they are trading at less than 20 cents per share (19.5c close on Friday). That one AR9 sell would give you a $1.8 million windfall if it went through - but it clearly won't - because the sell price is rediculously high. Your sell on TNT is also at a price that is more than twice where they closed at on Friday. Those sell trade prices are the reason why it looks like you have so much cash available, but the reality is that you do not.

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umop3pisdn
Added 4 years ago

Makes sense. Thanks!

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umop3pisdn
Added 4 years ago

Andrew,

I noticed on Friday the Strawman Index added AVH at a 28.8% weighting! Im very interested in hearing about the expectations for this company?

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edgescape
Added 4 years ago

I noticed lots of people on the leaderboard have 3 digit gains because they held AVH before the adjustment. So it looks like some holdings need to be readjusted to take into account the consolidation.

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Strawman
Added 4 years ago

Yeah, an annoying problem due to some errors from our data provider. We're on it.

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Bear77
Added 4 years ago

As part of the switch from FPO (fully paid ordinary) shares here on the ASX to CDIs - due to their primary listing now on the NASDAQ instead of on the ASX - they have only issued 5 CDIs for every 100 old AVH shares that people held.  Or 1 for 20.  That was to better align the share price here with where the NASDAQ shares were trading over there.  That means that while an AVH CDI is now worth around 20 times what AVH were trading at around a week ago (43c on 23-Jun-2020, around $8.60 today), shareholders only own one twentieth of the CDI's that they held in shares.  For example, if you owned 1,000 AVH a week ago, you now own only 50 AVH CDIs, but those 50 AVH CDIs are now worth around 20 times what AVH was trading at before the conversion, so shareholders own the same value of AVH, even though the quantity and price have both changed.

This is explained further in some recent media articles:

https://themarketherald.com.au/avita-medical-asxavh-gains-approval-to-redomicile-2020-06-23/

https://www.fool.com.au/2020/06/30/avita-therapeutics-share-price-climbs-8-4-as-company-redomiciles/

https://www.sfvbj.com/news/2020/may/11/avita-move-headquarters-us-seek-nasdaq-listing/

 

And some further reading on the opportunity:

https://rogermontgomery.com/avita-medical-a-small-cap-with-big-potential/

https://www.afr.com/companies/healthcare-and-fitness/avita-tech-revolutionising-care-for-burn-patients-says-ceo-20191205-p53hbz

 

And some scuttlebut from last year:  https://www.afr.com/rear-window/bell-potter-s-skin-in-avita-medical-s-game-20191114-p53alk

 

Disclosure:  I don't currently hold AVH CDI's, but I have held AVH shares in the past, and I think they're a solid company with a bright future.  For another example of a healthcare or biotech company who has made this same move - of originally being an Australian company but moving their headquarters to the US and their primary stock exchange listing to the NASDAQ exchange in the US, you don't have to go past Resmed (ASX: RMD).  For an example outside of the sector, there is also NWS (Newscorp), who I like a lot less.  It is generally done when a company do most of their business in the USA, are headquartered there, and feel like they are going to generate more investor interest by being listed on a US exchange, particularly the tech-heavy NASDAQ which has made new all-time highs this year - in the past month - AFTER the worst of the COVID-19 news (so far) had been digested in March, making it almost certainly the best performing market in the world this year.  While many thought that tech (like the FAANG stocks) were overvalued and primed to fall hard during a crash or decent correction, most of them have held up remarkably well and many have gone on to post new highs.  The NASDAQ is thought of as the home of most of the fastest growing global tech and biotech companies and the bulls love it.  It is understandable why a company like Avita, at this pivotal point in their journey, would see a primary NASDAQ listing as something worth doing, and have done it.

P.S.  I note that NABTrade, Commsec and the ASX have all adjusted the old AVH share prices (prior to the CDI conversion) now so that their charts of the AVH share price don't spike up +2000% with the 1:20 conversion, so they've taken the share consolidation into account within those charts.  However, if you go to "Trade History" under AVH within Commsec (or the equivalent pages on other sites), you still get the accurate real numbers for the days in question, such as the 43 cps closing price on 23-June-2020.

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Bear77
Added 4 years ago

Hi Jaygill - those 555 shares that you now own are actually CDIs on the ASX, not the NASDAQ RCEL shares. Your 555 AVH CDIs are currently trading at $8.68 (as I type this) so are worth $4,817.40 right now, slightly less than the $5,000 you paid for them.

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Bear77
Added 4 years ago

Not sure exactly why the AVH CDI price keeps dropping (this FY, i.e. since June 30), but a couple of ideas are: 1. They have a lot of substantial shareholders, both individuals and financial institutions, and those guys might be selling the CDIs here and buying the shares directly on the NASDAQ. 2. Some Australian-based shareholders may not want to hold CDIs and also not want to hold NASDAQ-listed shares, so they might be exiting AVH. 3. AVH on the NASDAQ (RCEL) have fallen 26% from $30.54 on June 30 to $22.50 on July 17 (Friday's close). Our ASX-listed AVH CDIs have fallen 29% over the same period, from $9 to $6.38 (Friday's close). That 3% variance could at least partially be due to currency movements over the past 3 weeks, but could also be due to the above 2 ideas. 4. It is probably just a risk-off move. If you look at the chart of Paradigm (PAR), they have also fallen over the past 3 weeks. So have Polynovo (PNV). Many of these biotechs have been sold off since June 30 as sentiment has changed. It looks to me like it's most likely just a sector sell-off that includes AVH. That goes with the territory. Companies like these won't always go up in a straight line. There will be volatility.

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CanadianAussie
Added 4 years ago

Thanks for this Bear77 I wanted to better understand how this works so I've read through all your write-ups as well as AVH ASX announcements. My understanding is: AVH inverted listings so there was no dilution and anyone owning US CDIs could swap for AVH US shares. It seemed to have minimal effect on the ASX share price and after a couple days trading halt you could continue to trade AVH freely (up until they finalised the process in June). As you said, you were no better off or worse. Finally, if I understand CDIs correctly it appears you can transmute or swap your CDIs for Avita US shares if you like.

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