Just posting this in part to get into practice of how the fourms work as I haven't started a thread before. I hope it doesn't come across as critical as it just relates to perhaps tempering expectations of another bull case post I read on SSG. Not sure if you can tag the other poster but it was just about the seasonality of the earnings of SSG. However I don't think you can hit reply to the bull case posts so making this thread here.
I am a bull on SSG so am on the same side as the bullish poster I read! I agree with the arguments made just clarifying some inputs to the valuation. So just mentioning here that doubling their latets half earnings will give an overly optmisitc view. Fathers day, black friday, Chistmas being some big factors that weight their yearly earnings to that 6 month period.
Having said that, I see the stock at EV /EBIT for FY21 at a mutiple of circa 6. Some will view the stock as just in a one off covid benficiary phase. I think they had many structural trends going on well before covid. Also in November / December I don't see that period is being too covid impacted but they still showed fantastic growth. It still could be a good contrarian buy as my feeling is the market thinks there is no extra growth in them now in the years ahead. I think their brand will lead to more market share gains, growth in the number of new male (caring more about grooming) and female (they invested heavily in store layouts / marketing to tap into this) customers, NZ expansion. They will probably delvier cost and efficiency gains from controlling their store network and being flexible on the mix they decide on between online and physical. Perpertual have been selling down the stock a lot and is capping the price of late but I don't think that will prove such a good move from them. I can see a sustainable yield of over 6% going forward.