Forum Topics Kogan.com Ltd General Discussion
Tunnelthug
a week ago

Here's the commentary from Kogan this morning - my point being that I don't know what more a company has to do to appease the market - seems to me like there's some fookery afoot!  (not paranoid, honestly, but I'm sure eveyone's out to get me :-) )

I will let the news sink in for a bit before I do a valuation - there does appear to be some questions, but as always that appears par for the course where Kogan is concerned.

 

Kogan.com passes three million Active Customers and grows Gross Sales by over $300 million in the half1HFY21 Highlights across the Kogan Group: 

  • Gross Sales of $638.2 million, up 97.4% on prior year (1HFY20: $323.4 million)
  • Revenue of $414.0 million, up 88.6% on prior year (1HFY20: $219.5 million) 
  • Gross Profit of $112.9 million, up 126.2% on prior year (1HFY20: $49.9 million)
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $51.7 million, up 184.4% on prior year (1HFY20: $18.2 million)
  • Adjusted NPAT  of $36.5 million, up 250.2% on prior year (1HFY20: $10.4 million)
  • NPAT of $23.6 million, up 164.2% on prior year (1HFY20: $8.9 million)
  • Adjusted EPS of $0.35 per Share, up 211.7% on prior year (1HFY20: $0.11 per Share)
  • Growth in Kogan.com Active Customer base (excluding Mighty Ape) to 3,003,000, up 76.8% from 31 December 2019. Mighty Ape Active Customers grew to 719,000 at 31 December 2020
  • Cash at period end was $79.0 million with $1.4 million of the Group’s debt facility drawn within Mighty Ape
  • Fully franked interim Dividend of 16.0 cents per Share, up 113.3% on prior year (1HFY20: 7.5 cents per Share)

Kogan.com Limited (the Company; Kogan.com; ASX:KGN) today announced financial results for the half-year ended 31 December 2020 (1HFY21).After a record breaking Black Friday trading period, with 7 of the 10 biggest trading days ever occurring within the period surrounding Black Friday, the Company reported Gross Sales of $638.2 million, up 97.4% on prior year (1HFY20: $323.4 million), and Revenue of $414.0 million, up 88.6% on prior year (1HFY20: $219.5 million). Gross Profit was $112.9 million, up 126.2% on prior year (1HFY20: $49.9 million), which reflected an increase in Gross Margin of 4.5pp to 27.3% (1HFY20: 22.7%). Adjusted EBITDA increased 184.4% to $51.7 million (1HFY20: $18.2 million), NPAT grew 164.2% to $23.6 million (1HFY20: $8.9 million) and Adjusted NPAT increased 250.2% to $36.5 million (1HFY20: $10.4 million). Adjusted Earnings per Share grew 211.7% to $0.35 per Share.During the period the Company acquired 100% of the profitable, fast-growing, online retailer Mighty Ape for a headline purchase price of AUD $122.4 million. Mighty Ape is an award winning New Zealand based online retailer, with a focus on gaming, toys and other entertainment categories. Mighty Ape is progressively being integrated into the Kogan Group.As at 31 December 2020, the Company had cash of $79.0 million post Tranche 1 of the Mighty Ape acquisition in December 2020, with $1.4 million of the Group’s debt facility drawn within Mighty Ape. The Company ended the period with inventories of $225.3 million, which comprised $72.6 million of inventory in transit and $152.7 million of inventory in warehouse. This reflects the Company’s investment over the course of the half in inventory in order to meet growing customer demand — particularly of Exclusive Brands, and the internal projections of the Business of future demand from the growing customer base. More than 99% of Kogan.com and 92% of Mighty Ape inventory in warehouse at 31 December 2020 was less than 365 days old.Following the strong results in the first half of the financial year 2021, the Board is pleased to have declared an interim Dividend of 16.0 cents per Share fully franked, which represents year-on-year growth of 113.3%.

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Tunnelthug
2 weeks ago

Don't understand why share price is being so badly hammered at the moment - KGN has everything going for it at the moment, very positive statement in January. Time will tell when results come out on 26th - I'm a holder for the long term, was very fortunate to by in at less than $10, am I missing something?

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Bubbagump
2 weeks ago

I believe the reason KGN has been dropping is similar to Coles, the combination of lowering stimulus/job keeper and panic buying have people thinking their strong growth is temporary. Also, Christmas period has ended and this is obviously the period of highest demand. I'm hoping after their reporting next Friday, there will be another drop so I can top-up. Long-term potential is extremely promising.

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Tom73
2 weeks ago

I wouldn't read much into KGN's volatility Tunnelthug - nothing new for it. The market is very divided on value and the business is going through constant change so valuation ranges are large (Also it doesn't help that questions continue to be raised about company announcement hype, the timing of insider selling and options offered to the leadership). Of particular interest at the moment is the effect that the Kogan market place is having on the business model and what your view is on this going forward. KGN is becoming more than an online retailer, the move to market place owner is a large shift in the business model from a margin, growth and risk perspective. The fact that they hit 3m Active Customers gives a high amount of leverage for sales growth and hopefully the half year results will give us some more insights on how all this is tracking. I am a holder of KGN, having been lucky enough to buy at 3.60, I am yet to sell any because I still see a lot of upside - I will update my valuation and share on Strawman once H1 results are available.

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Aitch
2 weeks ago

Long time holder, did bail chunk of my position around $20 to just leave profit on table, but agree with much of below. I think a lot is around expectation of drop off post worst restrictions which might show on their rolling results.. I suspect they will do alright long term but it's always bumpy with these guys, they have become quite a complicated business too and may need some more investment or higher input costs to continue their growth and compete..

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Advent
3 years ago

I don't think it will ever be like Amazon but even if its half the size theirs money to be made

Is their any talk of KGN's next move (?) UK /Asia?

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awesomeoman
3 years ago

Daystreet, I noticed your question in straws. I might suggest the fourm is a better place to ask questions or have discussions and the straws are used for information you want to place about the company :)

 

In regards to having access to 1 million customers I think this is absolutely a large number - just over 4% of the Australian population. Not to mention most people who shop on kogan are likely to be value hunters already. Their niche is offering good value products - doesn't matter what the product is as long as they can make money. They have done an excellent job in launching their other verticals and I see no reason why, so long as it is competitively priced, that this won't be as well.

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daystreet
3 years ago

Thanks awesome :) I am new to strawman, so thanks for the tip. I agree with your assessment. 1 mio people is a lot in a country this big, and in addition to launching good value products, making money etc, the verticals they are launching into are capital light, so they keep most of the profit and probably need little more than their website sales platform as all the backend heavy lifting will be done by the actual service supplier. A good business model!

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