Forum Topics Janison Education Group Ltd General Discussion
elpaso96
2 weeks ago

Some questions to clarify with Management 

  • Russia/Brazil - The early contract stipulates on excess student test volumes > 20,000, has the contract changed to per school basis? 
  • How many US schools are expected to participate in PBTS exam this year? Which school districts would be targeted by D2L/Brightspace this year and the expansion strategy for following years?
  • How is partnership with Benesse progressing after the initial pilot in Japan?  
  • The really big question for long term investors
    • Does Janison have to recompete for the OECD contract in 2024? 
    • If Janison lose the contract to Pearson, would those customers effectively leave the platform forever? 

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Noicewon11
2 weeks ago

Great points.

I think most importantly, the number of schools for those committments with the NSP. [Please note the disparity between the IPP & NSP providers].

US, & UK/Australia updates with updates on school participation.

Particularly in the US, where schools have been closed for extended periods, thus negating the need for sign up until now.

Here is a thread with somer good discussion, particularly on the post about the ICAS business - https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-jan-investor-presentation-wilsons-advisory.6077822/

 

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elpaso96
2 weeks ago

That discussion is literally my research for like the past 9 months :D

I have been going on and on about th $700K ICAS acquisition being one of the smartest I have seen during my brief time investing. Yes I agree with NSP and IPP countries being 2 very different kettle of fish for Janison. One is more valuable than the other, hence my concern if they lose the OECD PISA renewal contract, would all customers leave the platform? This is for Janison 2024 to figure out, not a major issue at the moment. However, it would be great Janison 2021 investors know ahead of time. 

I actually think ICAS might plateau at $15M p.a. in revenues. It is $15/test and they aim for 1million tests globally. They could technically add new subjects to the test. Right now it is English, Math and Science, but what about electives such as music, history, programming etc... It would not be as popular as the existing tests, but it would not cost much to add a new module. Honestly that's wishful thinking on my end, Janison reiterated in their presentation deck that $15M p.a. is the most they expect to get out of ICAS. 

Janison Presentation ASX Small & Mid Cap - Really good watch       

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Alpha18
2 weeks ago

Might be worth emailing investor relations for the company and asking them directly. Last question in particular relating to the OECD contract in 2024 is very important ofcourse. Don't know myself whether it's a very likely they get it again or whether it would go to tender and JAN would have to reapply  

IR@janison.com

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elpaso96
a week ago

@Alpha18 I have asked like a month ago and they have not responded. I think they are keeping their cards close to their chest - for now. I don't want to repeatedly ask as that's not fair to the IR team. 

Those are my questions for the next earnings call, what about yours? 

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Alpha18
a week ago

@elpaso96   Fair enough, I've just emailed them with the same question and will let you know if I get a response. Don't have any other questions off the top of my head. I've only bought them very recently, but was very impressed with management execution - over the last 15 months in particular. Looking forward to seeing what they can deliver going forward 

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Alpha18
a week ago

@elpaso96

Got a response. In relation to whether Janison would have to recompete for the OECD contract in 2024 : 

The exclusive platform partner (IPP) contract would be subject to a procurement process for 2024 as determined by the OECD. Our focus is to provide an exceptional experience for the OECD and for countries, and we have made significant investments to provide the feature/functionality that the PISA for Schools program requires - which would be very challenging for other providers to be able to match.  

 

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elpaso96
7 days ago

Thanks Alpha :) 

So reading between the lines, they will have to recompete if OECD chooses. Janison is saying that since they built out the features for the platform it would be difficult for competitors to win the bid - in other words, they claim to have a moat. I am not sure about the last part but we will find out how strong the platform would be in the coming years. From my understanding, in terms of the technology advantage it would be Janison Replay. Where you can replay the exam without an internet connection. 

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Did you guys also know that PISA, not just PISA Based Test for Schools (PBTS), is also up for retender in 2024? [eyes emoji]

If the OECD is satisfied with JAN's current performance, they'll also be a frontrunner to win the technology component of that contract. PISA is currently a much bigger deal than PBTS.

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elpaso96
7 days ago

The PISA exam I believe is every 3 years. If they also win that tender, depending on how big the technology aspect, it should also be material. Although, I see it as a one time boom in revenues every 3 years. Pearson I believe won that tender. It would be interesting to see if OECD goes for an all digital delivery of the actual PISA exam in 2024. 

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2 months ago

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Hands
2 months ago

I'm predicting the PISA student assessment to replace the NAPLAN going forward for the following reasons:

1) more valuable assessment information because it is instant - test regularity is determined by classroom teachers rather than govt authorities.  NAPLAN is once every 2 years, results take 3+mths to return to the school = untimely and lacks relevance

2) more generic across different curriculums, can be compared internationally

3) PISA has the opportunity to replace regular classroom testing because it is self-marking and provides the ability to assess students at different levels 

 

Janison also administers ICAS tests (suited for extension students) which are highly respected in many countries as a consistent measurement across different schooling systems.

 

Education is heading online.  Homeschool movement is growing.  Globally recognised standardised testing and qualifications are the way forward. 

 

Janison is on a clear runway if they can take advantage of their headstart and win those sales contracts.  Their SaaS is developed, already proven and windely accepted.

Disc: I own

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mushroompanda
2 months ago

@Hands

Did you know that Janison is also the technology platform provider for NAPLAN?

So if what you suggest happens it might be a neutral, if not detrimental, outcome of JAN. Especially considering NAPLAN is compulsory in Australia for years 3, 5, 7, and 9. While PISA based test for schools (PBTS) is only relevant for 15 year olds.

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elpaso96
2 months ago

PISA is a test for 15 year old kids so NAPLAN would still be compulsory for Year 3,5,7. I don’t know if Year 9 NAPLAN replaced by PISA is a bad outcome considering Janison gets $7k per school. Bottom line Janison is integrating with Global Education systems which itself is a competitive advantage. Really hope they don’t get bought out by large education players for anything < $1B

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mushroompanda
2 months ago

@elpaso96

I agree. I was mainly trying to frame the opportunity realistically for investors that were not aware of JAN's NAPLAN relationship.

The biggest upside is getting their act together in the USA - for which they're also the PBTS NSP with the same $7k/school economics. If they can get anywhere near the early traction they have so far in Australia - watch out! The strategy over there is mainly via the Brightspace LMS partnership and integration.

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elpaso96
2 months ago

Update on the PBTS rollout in Australia: 

  1. As of 15 April 2021, in excess of 200 schools have now signed contracts to sit the assessment over the next 12 month
  2. Schools which have signed up already are a mix of independent and government across several states in Australia, and at a cost of $7,000 per school, Janison expects to receive a minimum of $1.4m p.a. plus GST

PISA for Schools is an online assessment that supports individual school improvement efforts using benchmarking based on the OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). It tests a sample of 15-year-old school students with two components:

  1. A cognitive test in reading, mathematics and science using scenario-based real-life questions - testing the application of knowledge.
  2. A questionnaire about a student’s situation at home and school, reactions to the learning environment, and confidence and motivation for doing well at school.

Community validation from heavy hitter @Rapstar adding Janison to his strawman portfolio yesterday :) 

 

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Rapstar
2 months ago

elpaso96, thanks for the mention, but I just want to clarify - Janison has piqued my interest, and I have a small starter position, but I am still trying to get a handle on its valuation, future prospects, management.   

At the moment, I can't justify (to myself) building a large position at this price - but this may change as I learn more.

Hope it goes well for you.....

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