My bull case is:
(1) Management is good. I have a lot of respect for Graham "Screw" Turner and the way he runs this company, and what he has achieved.
(2) Balance Sheet is very solid, with no net debt, and their ROE is around 18%, so they're profitable enough.
(3) They pay good dividends, especially the last one. And their balance sheet and ROE can support a high dividend.
(4) They consistently manage to not only survive (when most people have declared them dead and buried, or at least heading that way) but continue to grow.
(5) In direct contrast to PGJM's "Risks" straw where they claim that FLT, WEB & CTD are all highly valued - by the market I assume - meaning that their share price is high, I contend that the share price of FLT is NOT high. I believe the market is UNDERvaluing Flight Centre. More about this point below:
DB - Deutsche Bank's latest call on FLT is "Hold" with a $46 price target (PT) (updated on 19-Mar-19)
MS - Morgan Stanley's latest call on FLT is "Overweight" with a PT of $51 (22-Feb-19)
OM - Ord Minnett's latest call on FLT is "Buy" with a $55.47 PT (22-Feb-19)
Morgans' latest call on FLT is "Hold" with a $47.37 PT (22-Feb-19)
Macquarie, Citi & Credit Suisse all have "Neutral" calls on FLT according to FNArena.com - and PTs of $43.50, $47.50 and $43.40 respectively
UBS have a "Buy" call on FLT with a $61.20 PT.
Commsec say that of the 5 brokers that they've polled, 3 have "Strong Buy" calls and 2 have "Hold" calls - and those 5 include Bell Potter, Credit Suisse (US), and Morningstar Australia.
Shareanalysis.com (formerly Skaffold.com) which has a valuation method based on Roger Montgomery's method (as explained in his book, "Value.able"), says that FLT is worth $55.10 now (in 2019), rising to $60.40 next year, and up to $66.70 in 2021. I find their valuations to be pretty conservative. They value Corporate Travel (CTD) at $13.65 this year, $15.45 next year & $17.43 in 2021, and CTD closed at $25.71 today (02-Apr-19). (See what I mean?)
FLT closed at $42.67 today. Nobody appears to have a "sell" or even an "Underweight" on FLT, and everybody has a price target that is higher than the current share price. Many are substantially higher than the current share price.
And Flight Centre isn't regarded as a sexy stock/company. They've got a great website that I used yesterday to book a return flight to Sydney (with a price-drop guarantee, so if my flight gets advertised cheaper between now and when I fly, they'll refund me the difference) but they're still thought of as an old-world bricks-and-mortar store chain of travel agents. There's a lot more to them than their Australian "Flight Centre" physical stores. They're a global company and most of their growth is now coming from outside of Australia. I just think they've been written off prematurely. Profitable, well run, no net debt, still growing, and undervalued. That's my bull case Strawman. What do you think?