Forum Topics Valuation Comment/Feedback
elpaso96
3 weeks ago

The market valuation makes no sense a 10%+ gain on $1.3M quarterly revenue, like seriously??

I can’t be the only one :D  

 

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Addy1234
3 weeks ago

If you approach the market with a static view on valuation you will rob yourself of great trading opportunities. Does it deserve the valuation from a traditional sense? Probably not, but the market is supply and demand, so at the moment that is the market cap that is being demanded by actual buyers for the current projected run-rate of growth. Would I enter? Sure, with a TA based entry and exit strategy. Would I blindly hold for 5 years and think it's a safe decision to do that? No, but I don't do that for any company.

If the market cap seems ridiculous and the companies stock price keeps going up and has consolidated at "ridiculous" market caps then clearly it isn't that ridiculous is it

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Dealsmate
3 weeks ago

Interesting perspective Addy.

My process is so driven by fundamentals, so it's interesting to hear how the Momentum guys operate and think about things.

The market cap versus fundamentals makes it completely uninvestible for me personally. That said, obviously you can do well playing the Momentum/chart game. End of the day, we're not all playing the same game and there is many ways to do well.

I do look forward to the day the mo mo guys swoop in on one of my rising stars. As you say, it's a market and I may need someone to sell to down the line :D

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CHill
3 weeks ago

3DP is a company I'd love to own. Their poteintial upside is massive IMO. Unfortunately it doesn't have a spot in my real PF currently as I can't justify the valuation. In saying that, I dont fix myself to valuations and do invest in "the story" but only allocate a portion of my PF to these companies. Current companies I hold that I'd classify as uninvestible on conventional valuation metrics which I hold include: WBT, BRN, CRO, AHI.

Will be keeping a close eye on 3DP as things develop and hopefully find an entry that I can justify.

@addy1234 100% I agreee on your statement regarding missing out on great trading opportunities. Think you hit the nail on the head. Each investor has their own rules and risk tollerance and should stick to them consistently so they can learn and improve along the journey.

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elpaso96
2 weeks ago

@Addy1234 - even though it dropped 20% on Friday, it's still valued at $400M+, still overvalued in my eyes. I don't know what story you can say to justify a market cap of over $200M in the traditional sense. The best story I got is that they will eventually attain more than 0.1% of the US geospatial mapping market ~ $50M in revenues. Until they can sign large contracts, I am skeptical of the valuation.  

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Addy1234
2 weeks ago

I don't think I ever justify the valuation of any company, there are companies trade at worse multiples. The reason it fell was likely due to the acquisiton not being favoured by holders and the actual cash receipts. Eitherway if you focus on that disappointment you forget how ridiculous its market cap has been for the last 6 months where it even consolidated.

Discloser i'm not a holder 

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icecreamguru
2 months ago

Purely on the context of the chart and recent downturn in the market I would like to make two observations:

- Pointerra is still not making money, despite the fact that cash receipts are increasing;

- The rise from the levels around 50c to over 70 c has given a reason for profit taking - that was smart by those who took some profits;

Disclosure: Never held 3DP

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RobW
10 months ago

Strawman

Your latest straw on Pointerra Q4 Cash Flow report understates the cash receipts. This was reported as $0.82 m.

You also highlighted a concern that they failed to report on ACV. This is covered in the report .....

"The Company will separately report an enterprise sales update including ACV analysis prior to the end of July."

So hopefully further good news to follow next week. An emerging 'Momentum Play' in my book. Love the modest cost structure and their communication style is very much shareholder / investor aligned. No play on words, no BS and provides a concise account of the 'state of play'.

Oneards and upwards.

Rokewa

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DonWei
2 years ago

Hey Machissimmo,

I agree with your 20x ACV premise in your valuation but I thought ACV was currently up to $1.85M? 3DP's most recent quarterly cashflow update found here had it up from 1.32 to 1.85.

With that new figure (keeping all other elements constant) you'd expect a 2020 valuation of 5.6c, discounted back 10% to say 5.1c

 

I might have missed something but this is a company that has taken my fancy. Keen for your feedback.

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Michissimmo
2 years ago

Hi DonWei, you are correct and thanks for pointing it out. I was knocking out a bunch of valuations quickly and used old guidance and neglected to read the recent 4c. I'll update my valuation now. Michissimo

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