Forum Topics LBL LBL Rona
DonWei
Added 6 years ago

G'day @wini (or anyone else keen to add),

Thank you for being the impetus for the most recent market update.

I found it slightly ambiguous given the seemingly contradictory statements surround 'no material impact' and 'sales performance has fallen short of the company’s stated target of double-digit sales growth'. Perhaps I am too keen to form a causal link between then two?

I see that you have revised your IV down (pre-COVID) in response to early indications of the 'sales performance' statement. I was initially hesitant to penalise LBL on their 1H results given they reiterated their $40m target, yet have chosen to do so now given the suggested <10>

The purpose of this post was largely to get your take on the most recent market update. Was there anything in there that took you by surprise or am I jumping at shadows?

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Wini
Added 6 years ago

Hey mate, I interpreted the statement to mean they had seen disappointing sales for the 1H period to Dec 31st but had seen no material decline in business since the emergence of coronavirus in Feb and were re-iterating the medium term guidance they stuck by at the 1H report. I revised my target down on the back of guidance being "double digits growth". I had originally expected that to be roughly 20% based on the recent past and the CAGR to hit their target of $40m revenue by 2022. They fell short of that trajectory in the 1H but stated they were confident of achieving it for the full year. Nonetheless I thought it was prudent to assume they hit the lower end of double digits and forecast 10% growth. I see some downside risk to that though particularly if a Tech sale was budgeted for the 2H. While I believe in the long term viability of the division, no doubt it will be hard to close a Tech sale in the current climate as businesses close their wallets except for the most necessary of capex. To answer your question directly, I saw nothing in the latest update that changed my opinion post the 1H report (which is why it was probably marked non-market sensitive). I'm still a big believer in the business and the management over the long term but I do agree with you that downgrading expectations and waiting to see runs on the board is the best way to go. The road of micro caps growing internationally (which LBL is trying to do) is a graveyard littered with lots of great stories that never materialised.

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