Such a good point @Bear77

I do beat myself up on the 'sold too early' mistakes, but it's often the right move to reweight things when the value proposition changes, and especially if the investment thesis is looking shakey.

14-May-2024: If anybody still likes Envirosuite (EVS), they're getting cheaper and cheaper - imagine how cheap they're going to be by the end of June !!

They made a new 12-month low (and a new 5-year low) today - of $0.048, before closing one tenth of a cent higher than that at $0.049. The last time their share price was down here was 6 years' ago - in late April/Early May 2018.

I'm firmly on the sidelines with EVS until they become profitable and start growing profits at a good clip, and until that happens I'm not jumping back onboard no matter how cheap they get. I might miss out on a multi-bagger by setting such rules for myself, but I'll lose less money also if it keeps me away from stocks that have charts like that one.

To be clear, this is not just about the share price declining - it's about the business failing to deliver on its promises and potential - and pushing out that profitability inflection point further and further. On that basis I don't feel this is a management team I can trust, so not a management team I can back.

That said, for those who are nowhere near as bearish as me, if you think they will come good, imagine how low they could go over the next 6 to 7 weeks!

Excellent post @Bear77. Riding 3DP from 4c to 75c is an incredible trade - most dream of such excellent buys and sells!

VYS. Seems to have sold off since recent highs on an average update. Could be a few taking a loss. But did finish up today maybe on the back of IO prices.

Others include 29M, DVP and CYC. 29M is more a turnaround proposition with a new CEO and seems to have turned pretty quickly.

It's good to have a shopping list ready, but realistically I reckon we're at least 2 months too early to do much in terms of taking advantage of tax-loss selling, as people won't be doing much selling before the latter half of May and through June. And a lot can happen in 2 months.

With regard to 29M. The environment regarding copper is moving towards undersupply with mines in Panama and Chile closed or suffering labour issues, removing a significant % of production. No slow down of EV manufacture which consumes 8 times whats required for an ICE vehicle. None of the issues around being replaced by another type of battery technology (Lithium has some emerging headwinds). No development of large stockpiles by China or elsewhere and indications copper smelters in China are processing more than last year. 29M have the funds to get their mine back running per previous production, and have demonstrated their ability to achieve their plans by and large to do so since being flooded at their Capricorn Copper mine. Seems to me they will get back to normal production at least. Historically they traded above $2 when operating normally. Their seems to be some momentum in conditions therefore that indicate the SP will return to that kind of level. There was a large short position exhausted by the recent fall, now largely extinguished I think as the recent trend higher in SP continues forward off a low water mark. Buy/sell pressure continues to be on the buy side, when looking at number of buyers, sellers and shares involved.

I am developing the experience to be able to better value businesses, so forgive me if I have been light on figures here but my value proposition is based on the above and I am confident of upside. I'm holding for the longer term.

Generally speaking copper looks to have better medium to longer prospects than most other metals commodities.

I own 29M in RL and SL.

When price went to 20c, 29M was priced for failure and it was probably the best time to go in if you are a betting man.

But they are mainly underground mines in some of the roughest country.

BMT and the forced selling by Bombora is another one. I see almost the same parallels with CU6 when GenesisCare had to exit and the price went from $1.50 down to 70c. Only difference is BMT is operating in a more competitive market (Cerner I believe is the main player as I saw the hospital I visit using it) and there is much much less insider ownership than CU6. If BMT goes under 20c again or if the CEO buys a few on market (even if it is $500 which is the min requirement) I'll take a risk.

Former ESG favourite CXL. Looking attractive now at $1.55

Straker STG is another I'm looking at.

CMP Compumedics

But even after Wini's summary I'm not sure I will buy here given the CEO has been in the job for 40+ years and his performance has been below average.

I guess the long term investors felt the same and decided to sell sending the share price spiralling back down despite the green shoots of sustainable profits.

Only thing I can think of that will do the trick is a refresh of the board to change sentiment

I suppose if you can look past the disappointments and see a positive in the last update them might be worth a look?

Nb: just put the sell thru on my SRL portfolio. Another case of not doing DD on management even though others may feel differently.

Elders down 20+% to $7.43 today 8 Apr..

Think there might be a few unfortunately nursing some losses if they bought over $8 recently.

Could be a few holders now contemplating whether to do some tax loss selling here.

Worth taking a closer look at what spooked the market and whether or not this is an overreaction.

@edgescapeit’s worth taking a look at Lindsay Australia (LAU) as another tax loss opportunity in the rural sector. I think its future prospects are better than Elders and it has a higher ROIC. I’m working on a straw for LAU, and have taken a starting position IRL.

@Rick I'm very interested to see your upcoming straw on $LAU.

It had a spectacular 2023, as some brokers started following it and promoting it - obviously in addition to the tremendous underlying metrics. The CEO change to Clayton Macdonald (ex-Aurizon and Toll) looks a good move, particuarly given the push into intermodal rail. It has pulled back around almost 30% from its highs, and I am wondering how much the wet summer/early autumn and some of the transport disruptions and rural sector disruptions are going to hit 2H - whether this is baked into the SP weakness and an even better entry might be achievable. Also, I observe that $SOL have been trimming their position a little, but given they've done so well, I wonder if that is just freeing up some capital for other ideas. Its now trading at a heavy discount to the 5 covering brokers I can see and historically on a low forward P/E of 8.7. Certainly, an interesting company in the small cap space.

Disc: Not Held (on watch list)

Had a quick look at the Elders trading update … definitely down in the first half and they attribute a lot of that to El Niño alert and depressed meat prices. I can understand Elders’ customers being cautious on their purchases if they thought a big El Niño drought might have been coming … doesn’t look like it with last weekend’s rain up and down the East Coast.

I should try and correlate El Niño to Elders share price at some point when I have spare time.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/

Certainly there quite a strong correlation between Aussie wheat production and El Niño.

I think these agriculture services companies are much like a farm … some good years some bad and I’ll continue to hold. I’ve got to have a look at the numbers and see if this is possibly an over-reaction and opportunity to top up.

DISC: HELD IRL (but not in Strawman as it isn’t in my small cap portfolio)

@Rick thanks for calling out LAU … I’ll have a look at it (my current knowledge of them is seeing their trucks out on the highways but looks like they are a bit more diversified than that). Wondering how they compare with Linfox and other big freight players. Quick look at their most recent results looks like they are just coming off a bit of a high capital expenditure cycle. I’ll keep an eye out for your further analysis.

@RhinoInvestor I think their higher capex last year was buying up truck of Scotts, which went bust. That industry change really boosted 2H FY23 and 1H FY24 and also gave pricing power as customers wanted to secure their supply chains. There will be some ongoing benefit of increasing market concentration in the rural, refrigerated trucking segment. So, in looking at $LAU's future growth it is important to understand both the organic and inorganic components.

Interestingly, following 1H FY24, several brokers nudged down 12m price targets, but only by small amounts and nothing like the SP reaction we've seen.

@mikebrisy I think you are right … half year report indicated they bought $22m of stuff from Scotts and will depreciate at an accelerated rate.

Looks like the Scotts purchase has allowed them to rebalance down their capital projections for FY24, but it will be interesting to see how their need for maintenance capital continues to grow over time (especially given their comment that the Scotts fleet was pretty old and will be on accelerated depreciation)

@Strawman , is there any way we can move posts across to the appropriate company when we go off track and down a rabbit hole. Will make it easier for others to get all the straws in the right place?

SHL is the lowest I've seen it since May 2020. I am wondering if it's tax loss selling.

@Seasoning I am a holder of SHL and looking to add at current levels. my thoughts on their slide on SP are based on a couple of things:

• markets assumption maybe that their revenues are not growing without COVID revenues (last report was 15% increase in base revenue)
• have increased their debt levels due to acquisitions and have a much higher interest expense whilst rates remain relatively high..
• CSL, RMD potentially better value given their pull backs
• losing franked dividends..

I'm wanting to add now as eventually rates will fall and if they can continue grow revenues via their acquisitions, the there is a dual kick to come from progressive dividends increasing at around 3-4%. Its a long term hold for me in my super fund

Anything whose SP goes top left to bottom right. Like most of us (hopefully) I wouldn't change an investment thesis due to tax...but there's a good argument to crystallise a loss by selling and immediately rebuying some companies who have experienced some tough love recently

NST and GOR (Both solid gold companies) could be worth keeping an eye on, though they haven't dropped that much. (Disclosure held)

@Rapstar was looking at CSX, NXL, EOS and JIN as possible opportunities to buy in May/June 2021 due to tax loss selling, so now, 3 years on, with the benefit of hindsight, we can see if they were indeed opportunities 3 years ago or not:

CSX wasn't, EOS wasn't - until mid-2022 or last year (2023) perhaps, and NXL wasn't either (in 2021), but probably was in May/June 2022, although I personally wouldn't touch NXL due to their management.

However, JIN (below) would have been a good pick-up 3 years ago, or an even better one 2 years ago (in June 2022):

Source: Commsec.

It can be hard to pick the good ones from the value traps and the rubbish, but looking at the quality of the company, their management, their business model, and their industry position, are all reasonable places to start.

I may have been misunderstood.  I am looking for buying opportunities that may arise as companies are oversold due to tax loss selling.......

Speaking of tax - if you're registered as a share trader, can you still be eligible for the 50% CGT discount if you hold a majority of shares for longer than one year?

Yes, for most Australian's who have a primary income unrelated to investing, capital gains on shares are a part of your 'capital' income. This portion of your income is usually eligible for a 50% discount if you've held that specific share / asset for over 12 months.

If investing is your primary income, then you may not be eligible for the 50% discount as gains on shares are considered to be 'revenue' income.

It might be best to speak to a professional tax adviser for more detailed advice.

That seems to be the problem, that after many years of doing a mix of long-term and short-term trades, in the last couple of years I've switched over to making primarily long-term trades (longer than one year) apart from the occasional instance where something major occurs to my thesis and I decide to sell before the year is up.

(Investing is my entire income btw.) My accountant however still lists my occupation as 'Share Trader' on my tax returns, and advises me that as such, "you are not eligible for the 50% CGT discount."

In view of the following quote I've just come across, I'd be curious to know how many Strawman 'investors' (and thus claiming the 50% CGT benefit) might potentially be considered as 'traders' by the ATO:

"The ATO has also stated that if you are buying shares in companies that are not well known, or are trading in penny stocks, you are more likely to be considered a trader."

Since I'm currently switching over from trader to investor status, and many of my stocks aren't "well known", I find this quote more than a trifle concerning.

https://abas.net.au/are-you-a-share-trader-or-share-investor-here-are-taximplications/

I had a conversation about this with an accountant a couple of years ago @RogueTrader and he assured me that the main things that defined a trader as opposed to an investor was (a) the number of trades, (b) the frequency of trades, and (c) the length of trades.

So he said that people who traded regularly and had short holding periods for those stocks they did hold were often considered traders, however if you hold stocks for a year or more, on average, and didn't turn your portfolio over too often, then you could safely call yourself an investor. Whether stocks were large, small, worth a few cents per share or a few dollars, or were well known or not well known has nothing to do with it - the well known bit is completely subjective anyway - I've known people who have invested in private companies - so not well known at all - and they're not considered traders.

Trading in Penny Stocks, by definition, is trading, but investing in penny stocks is investing, and it really comes down to holding periods and how many trades you place and how often. Generally speaking, anyone investing for short term gains is likely to be considered trading.

If you are doing both, trading and investing, the ATO would likely to consider you a trader with respect to all of your trading AND investing, but if the majority of your positions are held for months and years rather than days or a couple of weeks, then you'll probably be able to argue succesfully that you're an investor.

IMO. However, are there any accountants out there who have a different opinion?

The ATO has a page on trading vs investing here

Share investing versus share trading | Australian Taxation Office (ato.gov.au)

It seems to boil down to whether you treat your investing as a business or not, but it does mention that the courts have made decisions in the past based on what @Bear77 has said, being the number of trades, frequency of trades and the length of time held. Another main point is investors invest primarily for dividends, but the page appears to be focussed on how you would classify yourself. It lays out a number of points which you must satisfy the be able to call yourself a trader and hence claim gains and losses as income.

The focus seems to be on whether you classify the capital gain or loss as a capital gain or loss (investor) and as such can only offset any loss against other capital gains, or revenue (trader/business) and hence can claim a loss as an expense in that financial year.

I did see on another page on the ATO site a definition of a "not widely held company" which might be the "not widely known company" mentioned above. This was interpreted as a company or trust with fewer than 300 members.

Hi @Bear77 you ask "However, are there any accountants out there who have a different opinion?" My impression (from asking a similar question on another forum) is that accountants, and presumably whoever might handle such a case in the ATO, would differ most in their interpretation of the number of trades made (and how often.) For instance, if you had to choose a number of trades during a year that made you a trader (rather than an investor) what would that number be, 30, 40, 50+?

Personally I made 21 purchases and 5 sales during the current financial year (two of the sales were held less than one year.) Investing is also my only income (I'm 61 and have done this for the last 20 years) so that would also be a factor to be considered. I also had an ABN which I cancelled recently (don't want to look like a business if I'm going to be an investor.)

I'm not sure about the definition of penny stocks - at what price does a penny stock cease to be a penny stock? (I'm guessing it's more than a penny.) :)

I think there are plenty of self-funded retirees who live off income generated from investments, alongside those who consider themselves full-time investors rather than retired - however you can retire from work at any age - and you can also be semi-retired - so working a lot less. It sounds like you are either a self-funded retiree or a semi-retired investor @RogueTrader based on the frequency of trading that you have mentioned. A trader would make more than 5 sell trades in a financial year for sure. I don't think you have any issues with being classified as an investor rather than a trader. The ATO would be very hard pressed to prove that you were a trader.

In terms of trades per year, that has to be viewed in combination with holding periods. The easiest way to look at it is probably: What is your average holding period for which you generate either a trading/investing profit or loss? If the average period is greater than 12 months, then you can certainly call yourself an investor and the ATO should not have any problem with that.

The shorter the average holding period is, the more likely they would be to consider you a trader. The longer it is, the more likely they would consider you to be an investor. Anything beyond 12 months is in "investor" territory.

DDR might come in for some tax loss selling. Also AD8? Just some ideas I will be watching for weakness in June.