Forum Topics PPH PPH Founder selldown
Jimtama
Added 5 years ago

Andrew WHY pose the Pushpay question to the 2 most conservative guests IMHO on the call LOL I think the could make The Call far more interesting splitting them so they dont appear together.

Three questions I have regarding the annoucement 

1 Does the 5% figure sold equate to only 1% pre split.

2 How much does their selldown take into the consideration that unlike Aussie NZ has no capital tax 

3 Neither are substantial holders although a founder

I am a holder

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Strawman
Added 5 years ago

Haha, I did try to see if I could get ANY positivity out of them :) The amount sold is on a post split basis. Tax considerations probably not a big factor, but only they would know. A substantial shareholder is one that holds >5% All told Id prefer they kept their shares, and it's not great that they have sold as quickly as possible given escrow conditions, but I'm happy with my current holding.

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Strawman
Added 5 years ago

FWIW -- the last time Chris Heaslip sold shares in 2019, he ditched 12m (over 40% of his holding) shares at a price of NZ$3.70 (pre-split), which equates to 87c on an adjusted basis at the current exchange rate.

Just worth pointing out that big insider selling isnt always the portent of doom that most usually expect. That decision to sell cost Chris over $12 million in forgone capital gains.

 

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umop3pisdn
Added 5 years ago

As far as I'm concerned, based on the most recent results, the PE has dropped today to around 24.

Using PE as a basis, when is this type of company considered a bargain?

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Rapstar
Added 5 years ago

24 is pretty damn good value IMO.

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Rapstar
Added 5 years ago

Pushpay have guided for $58 Million USD EBITDAF. Assuming NPAT is 50% of EBITDAF, this equates to $77 million AUD profit, or a PER of 25. This is cheap if PPH can continue to grow profits above 20% per annum for the next few years.

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Addy1234
Added 5 years ago

Glad I topped up during the dips. Great investment so far.


If they can meet their guidance and continue to show signs of operating leverage (not really dependent on gross revenue growth

anymore as the business transitions from SaaS to a more standard company) then this will re-rate again.

Always a slow re-rater though.

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Rapstar
Added 5 years ago

Dealsmate, Yes, I stand corrected. I stuffed up. PER will be around 45 based on forecast 2021 earnings. Not cheap by any measure, but good businesses never are.

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Bear77
Added 5 years ago

That might be true to an extent Dealsmate, however I agree 100% with Rapstar in that high quality businesses with great management with proven track records usually tend to trade at a premium to lower quality businesses, and if you ONLY look to buy such businesses when they look cheap, you will likely NEVER own shares in them. Such businesses include CSL and ARB Corporation. They don't look cheap, and never look cheap, however their returns for shareholders over most significant time periods have been really good, particularly if you look at total shareholder returns. In ARB's case they have paid a number of large special dividends over the years in addition to their ordinary dividends. Choosing to ignore such businesses and concentrate ONLY on cheap businesses is a perfectly valid strategy that can certainly work well. However, so is buying such companies when they do have a significant pullback and holding them for 5 to 10 years or longer. Horses for courses. I understand what Rapstar is saying there, although I don't have the same opinion of PPH that I do of companies like CSL and ARB. I don't follow PPH closely as I don't see that they have a sustainable moat - a growing competitive advantage. They may have, but I don't see much in the way of barriers to entry for potential competitors. I don't expect Churches would have any particular brand loyalty if a competitor to Pushpay offered them a similar product at a lower price point. Perhaps it is the network effect, or the first mover advantage that will be enough to keep competitors at bay. Perhaps... Also, every time I look at PPH, they do NOT look cheap. Yet their share price has invariably risen higher than the last time I looked at them. If I was convinced of their quality and longevity - I could pay a higher multiple - the quality premium - but I'm not... yet... Don't get me wrong, I do not think they are rubbish. I just don't have a high enough opinion of them to pay the current multiples. That said, I can certainly see why people might, if they did view them as worth that premium.

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Bear77
Added 5 years ago

All fair points well made Dealsmate. I also appreciate your input, as I'm sure many others do also.

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