Consensus community valuation
$2.11
Average Intrinsic Value
35.1%
Undervalued by
Active Member Straws
##sitefeedback
Added 5 months ago

Is there a way to sort these straws newest to oldest? pretty annoying to scrol up and down to make sense of things

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#HY21 Results
Last edited 3 months ago

Pushpay has reported results for the HY ending Sep 30, 2020 -- and once again has delivered exceptional numbers.

  • Total revenue up 51% to US$86.6m
  • Gross margin increased from 65% to 68%
  • NPAT up -- wait for it -- 107% to US$13.4m
  • Operating cash flow up 203%
  • Cash and equivalanets on hand up 221% to US$23.1m
  • total customers up 38%
  • Processing volume up 48%
  • Average revenue per user down 1% (cant win 'em all! THis is due to the CCB acquisition)

The business is gaining material traction, has a market leading offering and continues to have a long runway for growth.

FY guidance has been increased (again) -- company expecting EBITDAF of US$54-58m, up from US$50-54m. A lift of roughly 7.5%.

You can read the results presentation here for more detail.

For me, the business is of an extremely high quality. I'll revisit my valuation in the coming days.

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#HY 2021 Presentation
Added 3 months ago

Key takeaways:

  • COVID-19 accelerates transition to digital payemtns, with TPV increasing 48% on PCP.  The CEO advised share of donation spend increased from 40% to 60% over the half year.  
  • ARPC (excl. CCB), increased approx. 16% on PCP.   
  • Customer count was relatively flat, with a bit of churn in CCB customers.  CCB tended to have smaller customers, which tend to be higher churn. 
  • 16 new product launched over the half, with ChurchStaq launched - its all in one church amangeent solution.  
  • Management report cross selling is exceeding expectations, which they say validates the CCB acquisition, and they are seeking to build their platform with further acquisitions.
  • Great operating leverage, allowing debt rasied to acquire CCB to be paid off over the next 12-18 months, with payments running at $2.4M per month. 
  • Maanagement report sales pieline is lengthening due to COVID-19 with potential customers reluctant to switch platforms at such a critical / uncertain time.
  • Analyst raised the question of shareholdings of the founders, and their plans.  A vague answer was given.  Thsi may weigh on the share price short term. 

 

 

 

 

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#New CEO Appointed & Targeting
Added 2 weeks ago

Along with the profit upgrade announced today, Pushpay announced the appointment of their new CEO, with Bruce Gordon stepping down as the interim CEO after 18 months.   

This is significant news for the business, and I like the fact they have promoted someone from inside the business.  CEO, Molly Matthews was the Chief Customer Officer, and has had a rapid rise in her 4 years at Pushpay.  To rise so rapidly within a business, she is learly a high performer, and she will know the business culture far better than an outsider.  Given her current role, I would say Molly understands Pushpay's customers better than anyone else.  

Capital allocation skills, strategy, execution are unknowns, but I would prefer an insider, who knows the business and it's customers, is appointed, particularly in the faith sector.  

The other significant announcement is Pushpay's pivot towards the US Catholic sector.  This has the potential to significantly increase Pushpay's TAM, however, it remaisn to be seen how successful their offering will be, given the older demographic, and centralised decisionmaking.   Sales cycles will be quite long, and a lot of implementation support will be required.  Catholic faith sector is a completely different to evangelical christians, as the Catholic sector has traditions that are centuries old, with decisionmaking usually made at a diocian level, rather than parish level.......I am a little sceptical of it succeeding.  

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#Insider selling
Last edited a month ago

PushPay is in a trading halt as they do a bookbuild to facilitate a sell down by Chris Heaslip (founder and ex-CEO) and Chris Fowler (founder of Church Community Builder, acquired by PPH last year).

In total almost 55m shares will be sold, of which 42m belong to Chris H and 13m belong to Chris F. After the transaction, Chris Heaslop will hold only 0.2% of PPH. Chris Fowler will retain a 1.2% stake.

The bookbuild floor price is NZ$1.75, which is about AUD$1.64 (compared to the last close of $1.78.

Trade is expected to resume trade tomorrow (16th Dec).

We can't know the true motivations of the sellers, although it seems most people tend to assume the worst. I'm reminded of the saying "insiders sell for many reasons, but buy only for one".

Still, it's a huge sell down -- especially by Chris Heaslip who has been progressively selling for a while and has now essentially fully exited the business. Not what you like to see.

We saw the Huljich family sell down around 14m shares about 5 months ago, at a (adjusted) price of $1.98.

More info here

 

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#ChurchStaq
Added 5 months ago

PushPay announced a number of product developments this week, the most notable being a new, fully-integrated platform called ‘ChurchStaq’, which seems to combine all their tech into one seamless product. 

https://pushpay.com/churchstaq/

Difficult to say what effect, if any, this will have on the current financial year, but it looks to me like a decent long-term strategy to streamline further acquisitions and integrations into the one solution moving forward, whilst making the value proposition easier for customers to understand. Without a doubt, the dev teams have been busy over the last 8 months!

I see that they are also advertising some data migration positions for CCB, which makes me think there are a number of existing CCB customers who want to ‘upgrade’ to the new platform and access giving and engagement tools. Looks encouraging for upsell numbers, and could be evidence of the acquisition going well, though admittedly I’m drawing a long bow here.

Finally, a friendly reminder that PushPay upgraded their EBITDAF guidance by $5m on the 20th September last year…  Just sayn'! ;)

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#Runway
Added 5 months ago

In response to Foolednomore (not sure how to respond to your straw) they reference in the report they are targeting 50% of the med-large church market which represents  $1bil revenue. 

I thought I'd seen previously they had only been around 5-10% of target market. As such, with gross margins/operating leverage there still seems a runway for growth before having to fish in the smaller lower margin small church pond.

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#ASX Announcements
Added 2 weeks ago

Pushpay have provide futher guidence to expected full year earnings. Due to a better than expected December month they expect full year EBITDA to be between $56-60M. This is the 3rd time they have upgraded guidence this year.

Full announcement here

They have also announced Molly Matthews to be taking over the role of CEO from interim CEO Bruce Gordon. Molly has had senior roles at PPH for 4 years most recently as CCO. Im happy they have appointed someone from within the company that has a much more deeper understanding of the business than an external recruitment. 

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#ASX Announcement 12/1/21
Added 2 weeks ago

Pushpay provides operational update and guidance upgrade

Pushpay Holdings Limited (NZSX:PPH, ASX:PPH, ‘Pushpay’ or ‘the Company’) is pleased to advise that its performance for the month ended 31 December 2020 exceeded internal expectations.

Previous guidance for the year ending 31 March 2021

• EBITDAF of between US$54.0 million and US$58.0 million Updated guidance for the year ending 31 March 2021

• EBITDAF of between US$56.0 million and US$60.0 million

View Attachment

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#Analyst View
Last edited 4 months ago

Analyst update around 18:30 mark 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uWjiMeFF3xs&t=2197s

 

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#New Product Launch
Added 4 months ago

New Product Launch Video 

https://grow.pushpay.com/lp-ty-replay-webinar-summer-launch-2020.html?utm_medium=email&utm_source=pushpay&utm_content=product-webinar&utm_campaign=summer-launch-2020&utm_term=faith--all--all

 

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/122757547/kiwi-company-pushpay-set-to-double-profit-thanks-to-digital-giving-us-churchgoers-analyst-says

 

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#Pundits
Added 5 months ago

Froxy. Thanks for the reply. Perfect response. That was why I was confused by the call. This seems to happen a fair bit. Where by pundit/s seem to  display an over confidence in their knowledge of a business. 

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#Analyst View
Added 2 months ago

Opinions on PPH in the link here from Adam Dawes, Julia Lee and Michael Gable.

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#Risks
Added 5 months ago

Scott from motley fool and Tim from teaminvest are very cautious on PPH. They seem to think they have saturated the mega church market and are having to refocus on small and medium churches. Is this correct as it could seriously affect profit margins going forward? More risk to the downside?

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#Fund Managers' Views
Added 9 months ago

14-Apr-2020:  FSI Shareholders' Quarterly Report - March 2020

"INVESTMENT ACTIVITY:  During the quarter, we removed Pushpay Holdings (ASX: PPH) due to concerns regarding their competitive environment and an uncertain future regarding profitable growth."

--- click on link above for more ---

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#COVID-19 Update
Added 10 months ago

Pushpay has updated shareholders on the impact of the coronavirus and actually INCREASED guidance. 

The cessation of church gatherings has created an increase in demand for their offering.

EBITDAF now expected to be roughly 8% higher at between US$25-27m for the year ending March 31.

 

ASX announcement here

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