Forum Topics AVA AVA AVA Risk Group General Discussion
fcmaster26
11 months ago

Do you guys know know why people do things like this??

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I've seen people deliberately setting a sell order 1 share more than the limited buys pre-market just to drive the share price lower and it has happened multiple times.

I have no good reason for anyone to do things like this. Do you guys know how could anyone benefit from it?

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Rick
11 months ago

@fcmaster26, this seller wants to get out for whatever reason and at 21cps they are first in line.

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fcmaster26
11 months ago

But that’s only $580.

I guess someone just really need to buy a Nintendo switch today.

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Bear77
11 months ago

It could be somebody selling out of one or a number of positions they don't want to be in now, or liquidating an entire portfolio. We don't know. I have done similar things myself, particularly when you have such a small position in a company and you want to exit, just lock in a price that should guarantee the sale. Sometimes you get lucky in the opening auction because the price matching ends up higher than your offer and your trade will go through at that higher opening price. And sometimes it goes through at the minimum price that you have set. In AVA's case, if you look at the trading through the day, prior to that 3:13:52 PM trade of 20,000 AVA @ 21.5 cps, the majority of trades went through at 21 cps, in fact $4K of the $5.2K of AVA that was traded prior to that $4.3K trade at 3:13pm was traded at 21 cps. If you look at the entire day, and include all AVA trades today, $4K of the $9.5K traded were traded at 21 cps and the rest ($5.5K) were traded at 21.5 cps. Sometimes it's not because they need the money, it's just that they don't want to be holding those shares any more. The difference between selling that quantity of shares (2,761 or 2,762 shares) at 21 cps or 21.5 cps amounts to less than $14, so if I wanted to exit a stock or wanted to buy an opening tranche of shares, I don't think I'd quibble over $14.

As far as why there are two amounts that almost match, I believe in this case it's positioning to try to influence the opening price that results from the bid/offer price matching during the pre-open auction. My understanding is that if there are more shares (even one more share) for sale at a lower price than there is at a higher price, then the shares will open at that lower price, which is where they did open this morning (at 21 cps). If the buyer had offered to buy 2,763 (instead of 2,761) at 21.5 cps, then AVA would have opened at 21.5 cps instead of 21 cps. All overlapping bids settle at the opening price, so I think that's what this was about.

That of course assumes that no changes were made or additional trades were lodged at those prices prior to the completion of the opening single price auction (since that screenshot was taken of the buy/sell spread). Many trading platforms (including "CommSec One", Commsec's premium trading platform) provide real-time monitoring of the buy/sell spread and show changes as they occur so that you can quickly respond with changes to your own trades, both before the market opens and during the trading day.

The opening auction is explained well here: Understanding the ASX opening and closing auctions – Rivkin

Plain text: https://rivkin.com.au/members/resources/all/understanding-the-asx-opening-and-closing-auctions

The 4pm to 4:10pm pre-CSPA (match) and the 4:10 to 4:12pm CSPA (closing single price auction) is explained well here: Trading Hours (ASX & Global) - Market Index

Plain text: https://www.marketindex.com.au/trading-hours

Hope that helps.

In the example that you have highlighted @fcmaster26 I'm thinking it's somebody trying to influence the opening price by ensuring there were more shares on the sell side at 21 cps than there were on the buy side at 21.5 cps, which would result in an opening price of 21 cents instead of 21.5 cents.

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fcmaster26
12 months ago

Another executive from Rapiscan joining AVA after Flo. Let's see if Mal and his old pals will impress the sharholders.

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fcmaster26
one year ago

Since Mal will be joining AVA in less than a month, I recently did a bit more research.

One thing that I found was Mal got paid seriously more than what AVA offered.

Here's what AVA offered.

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As we can see, the base salary is $330,000 in SGD ( about $356,810 AUD using today's fx rate) with 1,000,000 performance share rights spreaded over the next 3 year, which worth about $240,000 AUD based on today's price. That comes to $436,810 anually if the share price didn't change at all.


Now let's see Mal's paycheck at his previous position.

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All the figures were converted to USD.

Basically, Mal left (or got kicked out, who knows) a position making more than 1.3 million AUD anually for AVA. This seems to be very odd to me and I am still trying to find a good explanation.

Let's hope Mal actually chose to join AVA because he saw the huge potential of the company, instead of settling down for a less paid job because he wasn't good enough for the previous position anymore.

Let me know what you guys think.

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Slideup
one year ago

@fcmaster26 good digging.

My take on this is that he has gone from being in charge of a division and maybe 5th or less in the company hierarchy structure, to running a whole company. I would think the salary tradedown for this opportunity would be pretty attractive to someone who wants to make his mark and build a reputation. The commentary from AVA was that they know him and like him so it seems unlikely that he was a dud in his previous role. He might also not think the company he was working for had the brightest prospects going forward.

I also think the step down from $1.3M to $3-400K probably isn't that big of a deal in the scheme of things, as really unless you have a very expensive lifestyle $300K is still plenty of chickenfeed, even in Singapore.

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fcmaster26
one year ago

I found two articles that might help new investors to understand what kind of role Aura IQ has in the future of mining.

The first one is about using fibre optic fire detection technology to create a safer and more autonomous mine site. With fibre optic cables themselve being the sensors, an integrated system can collect data from all the critical components of the mining operation and allow the management to react quickly. I'm not saying this is the fire detection system that AVA has been working on to integrate with, but we do know that Aura IQ can be a part of a multipurpose monitoring system depend on the specific needs of clients.

(https://www.amsj.com.au/cutting-edge-fibre-optics-technology-to-detect-fires-in-mining/)

The next one is an example of a multipurpose fibre optic system from Anglo American's FutureSmart Mining initiative. Anglo American has been very passionate about fibre optic sensors. Not only they partnered with Mining3 with the Aura IQ development, they've sucessfully integrated similar technology to monitor warter flow on site years before Aura IQ was even a thing. The guy who published one of the first researches about fibre optic conveyor monitoring (he proposed DTS instead of DAS, FYI) worked at Anglo American after leaving UQ.

In this FutureSmart Mining initiative, fibre optic sensors can be used to monitor efficiency, safety and of course, movement of high value parts including conveyor belt. I'm sure more and more companies, especially the large ones will start doing the same thing if they saw huge sucess from Anglo American's operation

https://www.miningmagazine.com/chemicals-reagents/news/1410034/anglo-american-unveils-its-digital-vision

So basically, integrated fibre optic monitoring system is at this stage, where all the technologies are established, but the industry still need lots of time to adopt this concept. Some companies have done a lot in this area but most of the players have little awareness of this technology. I am personally very conservative about how quick AVA is able to promote Aura IQ, even with all the sucessful PoV trials. It probably will take 2-3 years until we see an explosive growth after Aura IQ has been installed at a major mine site and delivered great return in 12-16 months. So we probablly still need to hold onto this business for at least 5 more years to see any magic.

Or I could be wrong, who knows. I'm more than happy to have a $10m+ Aura IQ deal anounced tomorrow just to how wrong I was.

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