As a counter point, I sold (I never actually held them in my Strawman P/F because I never saw a good opportunity to buy in). I have lost confidence in management for the following reasons:
1) They fudged EBITDA number on the half year results (as they has a habit of doing), to exclude chinese marketing expenses among others (LOL). With these costs thrown, in EBITA was virtually flat.
2) In late August, they forecast strong tailwinds, with COVID-19 accelerating digital transformation. But it hasn't turned out that way. Why? Management say the sales cycle has lengthened, and/or clients working from home are less productive.
3) They knew in October that they would not meet guidance, but only reported the bad news yesterday - Meanwhile the share price tanked 25% since early November (insider information perhaps leaked? - Plenty of time for this to occur).
Appen may recover and do well from here. But I am not sticking around in the hope they do. Looking at EBITDA growth trends:
2017: $28 M
2018: $68.1 M (Up 154%)
2019: $87.9 (up 29%)
2020: up 2%????
pre-COVID-19, EBITDA grew 29%, including the dilutionary Figure-8 acquisition. All this management talk of underlying or adjusted EBITDA - Is it just a smoke screen? I dunno, but in my mind, the weight of probability is falling over to the wrong side of the equation, and the EBITDA growth rate trend is heading in the wrong direction.
I consider Appen a turnaround investment now. I hope it works out for you all, but I am not sticking around to find out when there are other businesses that are executing, aren't fudging results, grow organically, and report changes when they become aware.
Sean