The Aussie $ falling back down is a headwind as well.

@Francis, agreed mate. 

Product review is also not a good indication of customer satisfaction. In fact, I typically get more concerned when there are overwhelmingly positive reviews because it makes me think the reviews have been manipulated by the business. 

@SpectralRider, I have no connection to Motley Fool and have never paid for their services, but I don't think that is an unfair representation about how they operate. While their marketing sucks, I don't think Scott Phillips would ever screw over MF paying customers in the manner you describe. 

Rapstar good points and to add to the current rice a yield of 5% fully fraked simply adds to the attractivness .

Not something i hold but looking to add at current prices.

If growth in online revenue moves in the 30% plus direction as per Adairs appeal further increases.

SpectralRider, Motley Fool don't operate like that. They are very strict on analysts buying and selling recommendations - they are forbidden to front run, and are very strict restaints on selling.  Pumping and dumping simply cannot occur. 

francisfogliani, in relation to dividends, it is important to note Dusk has very high oerational leverage, as they have high fixed costs.  A 10% fall in revenue can translate into a 25% fall in profit.  A 30 cent dividend equates to a 70-75% payout ratio. That may not be sustainable.  I think 20 cents is sustainable - and thats a 6.7% fully franked yield. 

Hopefully we will gain a greater insight in like for like sales.  I am particulalry keen to understand how the LFL sales compare between pre-Globe 2.0 and post-Globe 2.0 stores. 

Hi gents. Putting my thoughts on the topic of product reviews. I agree that reviews arent the be all and end all. I think what Francisfogliani states is true that if you have a good experience you arent likely to leave a review unless prompted. But i think it can make people think twice about buying from you in the first place. So i think it can materially affect the amount and rate of new customers. If there are positive reviews, you are less likely to think twice about buying a product or service.

My boss Kel Varnsen is extremely happy with the reviews ive achieved from my latex salesmen skills.... 

SpectralRider working seinfeld analogies into investment chat. My hero!

I was intrigued by the idea of Product Reviews providing a source of insight, so I though I'd test with some data using known good performers in the Aussie product retail space and compare it with Dusk (Rating=2.4). My method was to select the peer group and not filter on results, i.e., it is a blind sample.

RebelSport (2.3), BCF (2.2), Supercheap Auto (2.1), Adhairs (2.3), JBHiFi (2.3), Harvey Norman (2.2), Temple & Webster (4.1), Nick Scali (4.5) Shaver Shop (4.0), Myer (1.9), David Jones (1.6)

While not a retail specialist, I am aware of the first 9 in the list being well-regarded in the investment community (SUL being the parent of the first 3). On the face of this analysis - such as it is - a rating for Dusk of 2.4 would not scare me off.

As for Rapstar's initial question, I have no view on how either the roll off of the COVID base effect or the Delta wave will impact results. It would not surprise me if the combined uncertainty of NSW and VIC lockdown periods, and unknown retail behavious in the category post-COVID (H2FY22?) means that forward guidance is uncertain, if provided at all. (I think ADH who reported Friday did not offer guidance given the uncertainty, and SP closed up 1.9% having fallen with the market ahead of the result.)

On most comparison's across the retail sector, the forecast P/E for 2021 is cheap. So, when you also factor in the very high operating margins and head room for new store growth, I imagine that SP movement risk is assymetric to the upside. As I said, I tend not to invest in the retail sector, but I am mulling this over as a short term punt, thanks in part to this thread for stimulating the thought process.

[Disc: not held in RW or SM]

Reminded me of LOV too. I will say I am wary of recent IPOs as its unlikely PE let's go at an attractive valuation but given they offshored manufacturing to China and rolled out a new store look maybe they felt they had little more to add. Interestingly/surprisingly they left the bank balance relatively intact from what I can see.

I agree it looks very cheap. I'd just add a cautionary point as well as a more bullish point to what has already been said: - Retail does tend to always look cheap. I'd put Baby Bunting, Shaver Shop, The Reject Shop and even Nick Scali - despite its recent runup - into the same 'cheap' bucket. That's somewhat justified because when it unravels for retail it can do spectacularly. However the financials and growth story are extremely compelling. - I'd be amazed if they haven't held something back if they have even the slightest uncertainty into the future. If you can exceed expectations and still hold something back for a rainy day why wouldn't you and if they have other levers to pull that makes the result even better and gives more confidence of future prospects. [Disc: Held]

Some great analysis thank you all. I had taken the net cash position in the latest announcement at face value given it stated that was how 1HFY21 would finish. I will look into the information that you have all provided as a learning point for the future to look deeper on these types of statements. The PE sell-off factor is quite fair. What is hidden given PE don't often give away things cheaply but in saying that they have maintained a significant stake. I guess the IPO allows much greater liquidity for them over time and to take advantage of opportunities as they pop up. Dick Smith after IPO is a reminder for some maybe? I couldn't agree more about the market discounting female products. A good (but very sad) observation. For disclosure I hold in Strawman and personal portfolio.

A few thoughts on why Dusk is so cheap: 1) The business is seasonal, with 60% of revenue 75-80% of profits generated in H1. Perhaps Mr Market is looking through to H2? 2) 4.7% of shares held not subject to escrow being sold down immediately after IPO. Minor shareholders may have taken profits at release of IPO. I can't see any other reason why the share price would fall below the listing price. 3) At face value, the business is not very sexy - Fund managers don't buy candles / vapourisers (although their wives and daughters may). I noticed a small cap fundie pumping it last week, and WAM microcap has built up a 6.7% position over the past couple of weeks, and brought 322k shares at around $2 per share on December 29. Mr Market may be right - perhaps there will be less spending on Dusk products post lockdown, reputational damage if product quality does not improve, increased competition. Issues to watch closely.