Forum Topics AVR AVR RE #Breakout
PabloEskyBruh
Added 6 months ago

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I’ve woken up to this price jump which is seemingly unattached to news. Volume is about half of Anteris’ normal NASDAQ trades. Only about 2% jump on the indexes so no obvious macro reason either. Possible FDA news leakage maybe? It will be interesting to see if ASX follows suit today.

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Goldfish
Added 6 months ago

Up over 17% on the ASX so far today. As you say, no news

Some sort of announcement from the FDA seems overdue. Supposedly they submitted the application before the end of Q1 and supposedly the FDA has 30 days to respond

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PabloEskyBruh
Added 6 months ago

Yes @Goldfish. That’s the Investigational Device Exemption (IDE). That’s basically the exemption from the FDA for Anteris to use — and sell — DurAVR during the pivotal trial. Pivotal trial won’t start until Q3. My understanding (based on Paterson interviews) is that the FDA has already responded direct to Anteris and there is back-and-forth at present. Still, I imagine there will probably be announcement once the IDE actually is actually received and there could well be leakage in the interim between decision and official announcement.

Volume picked up to average levels before end of NASDAQ trading. Volume there tends to be about 10 x that of ASX. I also think there is some short interest — and probably just some more sophisticated hedge fund activity in general — for Anteris in the US. I think it was some of Michael Frazis’ coverage where I heard that one of the funds took profits either just before, or at time of, the Trump Dump, which could have contributed to share price depression of past two months.

The upshot of which is I have no idea really why the 30% jump last night. I just hope the momentum continues to trend that way. Good news would be a massive bonus — but we may have to wait until first trial patient in Q3 before we see the re-rate I was expecting pretty much immediately post-IPO. Market seems to asses the risk as much higher than I do. I’m expecting prices to fluctuate between now and then.

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PabloEskyBruh
Added 5 years ago

Storge makes a good point in relation to the recent breakout in share price being unattached to news - bullish investor presentations could only get Anteris so far.  A more important factor is perhaps the current scarcity (relative to the past) of its shares.  Anteris/Admedus has a long history of desperate capital raises where institutional shareholders have had incentive to dump into a pumped share price post-raise for a quick and generous profit.  The current bullish sentiment is likely both a cause and effect of a reversal of this trend.  There are presently 6.6 million shares outstanding with another 2 million and change in options being now in the money (as at Tues 2/02/2021 at least) at the $8 mark - a legacy of a previous captial raise.  There are further options at the $10 mark which were issued to the most recent insitutional shareholder.  With this tighter share registry, a re-alignment of institutional shareholder incentives, the fading spectre of an imminent captial raise, and some key announcements on the horizon the recent reversal of Anteris' share price fortunes seems less illogical.

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