Forum Topics CDA CDA Sell down after FY21 results
lankypom
Added 3 years ago

This sounds like fake news. The Asia region in which Afghanistan falls accounted for 2.5% of total revenue in FY21. 

Guidance for FY22 is conservatively stated as continuing the same run rate as the end of FY21, and the first six weeks of FY22 have validated that so far.

 

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AUROPAL
Added 3 years ago

Not fake but my source may have overestimated the portion of Codan's total revenues (as opposed to a specific divion/department's) that were expected from Afghanistan. Also note that I'm talking about FY22, not historical share.

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AUROPAL
Added 3 years ago

Just a comment on the couple of straws put up on Codan's FY21 results and today's sell off.

I don't believe that it's just due to the CEO announcing his retirment but also due to a material hit to expected FY22 earnings.

I understand that a significant portion (~20%) of Codan's FY22 revenue was expected to be from Afghanistan government contracts, which given the current situation in Afghanistan and takeover by the Taliban, are now worth about as much as the paper they are printed on.

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Bear77
Added 3 years ago

Yes @Auropal, you are right that the Afghanistan situation would also have been a factor, however I do not think it would have been a major factor in the sell-down.  I still reckon it's more to do with McGurk leaving.  He's been brilliant over the last few years.  Codan said today:

"One of the great strengths of the Tactical Communications business has been our ability to deliver communications solutions to customers in difficult and diverse environments, one of these markets in recent years has been Afghanistan. During FY21, sales into Afghanistan made up 9% of our Communications business. Given the developments in Afghanistan our sales team will continue to focus on the other markets in the Central Asia region."

OK, that's 9% of their Communications business.  Their Communications business represented only 22% of their sales in FY21, with 75% coming from their much larger Metal Detection business.  9% of 22% is around 2%, so we're talking about 2% of their $437m in FY21 revenue - which is less than $9m - came from sales into Afghanistan in the financial year just ended.  Now I understand they've now acquired Domo (DTC) and they might have been expecting increased sales into Afghanistan in FY22 prior to the current situation, and that will likely not now happen, but that's not a big problem for them in my opinion.  Here's another excerpt from today's results announcement:

"As expected, Codan Communications sales reduced by $8.5 million compared to FY20. Whilst the LMR business achieved another record performance, the Tactical Communications business continued to be impacted by COVID-19. Deferred government programs due to health spending priorities and the inability to travel freely, restricted our efforts to develop and close new business."

So their Tactical Comms business has been facing some significant headwinds already - through FY21 - and they still managed to produce the results that they did.  I would imagine FY22 isn't (is not) likely to be any harder for them than FY21 was, even considering that it is quite likely they may well sell nothing into Afghanistan in FY22.  They always find new markets, and Comms isn't their main game anyway, it's a sideshow for them.  Three quarters of their revenue comes from selling metal detectors, and Afghanistan was never going to be a large metal detector market for Codan.

However, I don't have a problem with their -8.28% fall today - down $1.46/share today from $17.64 (yesterday's close) to $16.18 today.  They look expensive.  Still do.  I paid $2.88 (average) for mine in July 2018.  They're going to be a long term hold for me.  They make the best gold detectors in the world, and they have a lot of new stuff in various stages of development.  While their share price may retrace lower in the near-term, I reckon they'll be higher than they were yesterday in 5 and 10 years from now.

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