Forum Topics KME KME Valuation for Kip McGrath Education - KME

@Explore Thanks heaps for that information. (about only unprofitable companies releasing quarterlies) I really still know nothing. >_<


It possibly also shows the quality of some of the companies I'm investing in...

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Bear77
2 years ago

@Explore is correct @Stuey727 except there are a couple of exceptions, and they are (a) mining and (b) energy (oil & gas) exploration companies, who are also required to release Quarterly (Activities) Reports which usually include a development and exploration update or report. This is regardless of whether they are profitable or not, which is why you see large profitable companies like BHP, RIO, S32, FMG, WPL and MIN all releasing those quarterly reports; in fact those 6 companies have all released their March quarter reports in the past 8 days, RIO on the 20th, BHP on the 21st. MIN on 22nd, S32 and WPL on 26th and FMG on 28th April (today, and the FMG SP rose +8%, go you good thing!!).

The following shows the applicable ASX listing rules (from https://www2.asx.com.au/listings/how-to-list/listing-requirements)... I've added the yellow and blue highlights and the arrow.


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You can click on that image if it's not clear and you should get a larger and clearer version that is easier to read. Click again to return to this forum thread.

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At a brief look, the results look good here and seems to indicate the thesis playing out. I've added a small amount to my position IRL (Stocks are trading at the lower end of their trading range). Revenue has increased by 2.8 mil, with employee expenses increasing 1.9 mil, but covid makes this all messy and would expect the 2020 result to be pretty impacted by covid. Underlying profit seems to be increasing.

I think there is still a risk that the corporate centres will cause expenses to rise, meaning there is not enough of an additional profit.

I'd want to have a bit more of a look at what is going on with the admin and D&A expense.


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AlphaAngle
2 years ago

Some anecdotal thoughts from the start of term at our centre:

Strong interest and retention compared to last two years.

Around 1/2 to 3/4 opting to stay online. Reasons usually covid related or limited time after school to drop students.

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ArrowTrades
3 years ago

Thanks for posting AlphaAngle, great insight to hear from someone that owns a centre. I am curious now to know, do you own any shares KME yourself and what your opinion on it as an investment is?

Cheers

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AlphaAngle
3 years ago

When considering a position I like to consider its correlation to the rest of the portfolio. Owning a franchise and the franchisor is an interesting mix of negative correlation (increased franchise fees, takeovers with less friendly management) and high correlation (reputational damage, successful advertising). Overall it seems to me a highly correlated bet which is a negative.

In terms of insight the primary ones are related to risk which may not be apparent without running a franchise this includes the issues you can imagine around child safety with any organisation that involves kids which is usually left up to the franchisee’s as each jurisdiction is different and tutoring is largely unregulated. Lack of centre auditing and general franchisee risk such as underpayment of staff which due to recent regulatory changes the franchise holds partial responsibility for. For example advice given by head office would have potentially lead to us underpaying staff had we not sought independent legal advice. Of course I think most franchise’s struggle with this and it may never come up as an issue.

Overall I think it probably is a good investment around $1.00 but no I do not currently own any I think if I wasnt involved at a franchise level I'd be more rather than less likely to be a shareholder.

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Yes thank you for posting also AlphaAngle. Your insight is greatly appreciated! Amazing we've got a franchisee owner here. Where abouts are you btw? I'm in Newcastle, which is near head office! 


Out of interest, was the advice on the payment of staff related to the contractor/employee issue and sham contracting? 

If you feel comfortable sharing, I'd be very interested to know the internals of the franchisees. It's surprisingly hard to find in the annual reports and notifications... 

I think things that would be useful would include.
 

- What's the revenue? (Is this big or small for franchises)

- What are the main costs in terms of franchisee fees + additional kip goods/services, rent, employment, and anything else I've missed. 

- How much do franchisees typically make after they pay everyone, including themselves? 

- How many active students (at least one session) would you typically have per half year? (this will help provide a comparison with Cluey).

 

- Disclosure - Ended up buying some shares yesterday, though my order was half filled lol O_o. 

 

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AlphaAngle
3 years ago

Where abouts are you btw? I'm in Newcastle, which is near head office! - My partner runs the centre in Caufield South in Melbourne.

Was the advice on the payment of staff related to the contractor/employee issue and sham contracting? - No it was simply suggesting a per student rate which ignores certain things such as minimum wage for award and minimum hours of employment. I don't think it was nefarious I just don't think head office pay attention to stuff like how their franchisees pay their employees even though its my understanding they do bear some responsibility to ensure its fair.

What's the revenue? (Is this big or small for franchises) + How much do franchisees typically make after they pay everyone, including themselves? - Don't know I'm sure there is a spectrum. Around 60 lessons per week (averaged over 40 weeks per year) is a low paid wage, 80 gets you to a typical full time teacher salary (80 lessons ~ 70-80k profit before tax.) and 100 lessons is probably what I'd consider a successful franchise. Not sure of typical franchise size but Id guess 50 - 100 lessons per week. In terms of revenue it fluctuates a lot based on numbers which have changed a lot year to year (mainly up thankfully) but you can estimate by lessons*$63*40 weeks + (any holiday stuff you want to do maybe add 10%). We are above 80 now.

What are the main costs in terms of franchisee fees + additional kip goods/services, rent, employment, and anything else I've missed. 

Franchise fees, employment, rent, Utilities and supplies in that order - breakeven probably ~20 lessons (Not getting paid for your labour here). Note corporate centres eliminate the main cost but I guess would have to be 80 lessons to earn a decent return. If we could install a manager who was willing to accept say 80K per year and could be confident that numbers would be at least stable then after all expenses I suspect you would be breakeven. Obviously ideally you would have that person manage multiple centres and just employ casual teachers (which would put pressure on wage expense but if sessions were at least 2:1 you would probably remain profitable.

How many active students (at least one session) would you typically have per half year? (this will help provide a comparison with Cluey). - Not sure there is a "typical" as things move pretty quickly. have only owned it for 2 years most of which is covid affected. Second half is larger than 1st half though as students tend to churn at the end of term 4. From this time last year numbers are up around 80% at our centre. No idea if you can generalise this to the franchise.

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So there's the 3 of us in Newcastle and Wini. Wonder if anyone else is.

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bjbart
2 years ago

I normally reside in Newy but I’m temporarily in Darwin for 6 months.

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