@bjbart well done on making 120% so far.

I bring my knowledge of neuroscience to the table. That knowledge isn't the same knowledge base as needed in investing, and you know what, there is every possibility that I might be wrong.

Without going into a long-winded rant about health funding and politics, the TLDR version is that neuroscience and psychopharmacology have been the next big growth areas in medicine for the last 25 years. I am sceptical that we will see it achieve parity in funding with other areas in my lifetime. This has implications for a company that sits squarely in the neuroscience field.

My purpose in bringing up the bear case is to keep highlighting that one needs to keep in focus what the company does (cognitive testing in clinical trials) and what it might do (end user screening), and whether the latter is meaningful.

A lot of the commentary here and elsewhere seems to be that because we are all getting old and dementing, Cogstate is a sure bet. I'm not convinced as most here seem to be. That's ok, because disagreement makes a market.

I've previously compared Cogstate to a mining services company, and you know what, mining services tend to do better than the miners over time. Cogstate may well be the same. Or it may not.

If I'm wrong, I've missed out on an opportunity. I'm ok with that. I don't consider the time I've put into arguing my perspective to be inordinate.

I do think there is something that might be observed in the often emotive language being used to argue the bull case every time I post a contribution about this company.

Let's keep playing the ball, shall we?

I generally don't  follow FDA approvals close enough to know, but I agree it does sound dodgey and there's no question that the way this happened increases risk compared to if it was all smooth sailing. I'm sure those closer to the industry have ideas of what went on.  Whether it impacts future research only time will tell. 

Upon reflection perhaps my straw should have been tagged #risks rather than #bearcase.

Looks like the FDA has also given Donanemab breakthrough therapy approval too, so the ball is rolling 

https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lillys-donanemab-receives-us-fdas-breakthrough-therapy

Here is an article on Livewiremarkets from Michael Frazis.

His fund specialises in biotech and monstor growth stocks. He wasn't a fan of the approval. But it is outside my circle of competence to know either way.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/a-disastrous-drug-approval