Forum Topics XF1 XF1 XF1 Blog Post
Wini
2 years ago

@Noddy74 To your point on new cohorts not equalling sales, I suspect they have used revenue as the bars roughly add up to $4.2m. Annoying they changed that though, I agree with Stella, bring back the % of sales!

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Noddy74
2 years ago

@Wini I've since heard back from Lee (reply below). It's a bit annoying as I suspect the % cohorts they've provided previously have always excluded RapidID, which wasn't my understanding. Hopefully the more detailed cohort analysis he's proposing will resolve that...

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Noddy74
2 years ago

You're welcome @JPPicard and it's good to have you aboard. For what it's worth I think you may have jumped on at an opportune time. I also topped up when it got below 60 cents despite it already being my largest RL holding - it just looked too tempting. I was somewhat critical of their half year result but not because of the result per se. I just don't like inconsistent messaging from management and I'm sure I'm also guilty of a holders bias, whereby to some extent I'm harsher on my own holdings than I am on those I don't hold. It certainly didn't break the thesis and I'm confident the growth it is experiencing will result in meaningful cash flows in coming years. Employers appear to be quickly adopting automated reference checking as a part of their usual practice and added to that the Great Resignation is adding more juice to the industry.

Given clients need to log in to their website to use the platform I find tracking their website hits a useful proxy for demand between mandated reporting periods. The similarweb results going back to July last year are shown below. They had their usual slowdown over Xmas as recruitment dials back globally. That's very much expected and they're quite transparent about that in their presentations. But February was an absolute cracker, particularly given it's a shorter month. If that continues in March I think their quarterly update could be a ripper. They then move into Q4, which is traditionally the big cash earner. All in all there's plenty to look forward to over the next six months (and beyond).

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JPPicard
2 years ago

Fantastic point @Noddy74. In general having a look at SimilarWeb as a step in your due diligence process can be extremely valuable!

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Wini
2 years ago

Hey guys, I've put a blog post up on the Merewether Capital website about XF1 that hopefully will explain my investment thesis:

https://www.merewethercapital.com.au/blog/xref-marks-the-spot/

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