Forum Topics MNB MNB Valuation
TEPCapital
2 years ago

Hi @callawood, as a fellow investor in this sector (via South Harz Potash), I can see the value of investing in this space (fertiliser constituents)! There are some massive tailwinds here, that are likely to persist for at least the next 12 months and most likely beyond. Just with regards to your 50c valuation on MNB, I'm curious as to how you have arrived at that? What is your estimate for NPV and what discount (p/NAV) are you applying? Are you also factoring in dilution for future funding rounds? Cheers,

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callawood
2 years ago


Hi @TEPCapital Thanks for your questions.

I have been in Minbos for a bit longer than South Harz and both have now become quite significant positions in RL and Strawman. Both of these companies were promising before the current world crisis and now look compelling.


Minbos Is pretty much construction ready and as commissioning gets nearer a 50% discount to NPV was my arbitrary stab  (50c.). My expectations are higher now as the world has changed dramatically as well as MNB’s project developments


Minbos has been on my todo list to update for awhile and there have been developments since I last posted.  

As I am the only holder on Strawman and while this has made me consider whether I am right to hold I still feel there is a lot of potential in the whole fertiliser thematic and with Minbos specifically in the African continent. I did hesitate to post and was waiting for the DFS ; )

Minbos and South Harz (maybe coincidentally) have followed a similar pattern recently and both have held up well.


The quick picture ; )

The company valuation goal posts have been changing (for the best) with the take off in fertiliser prices. They have went straight from the scoping study to the DFS. NPV should be easily >$500m but also could potentially be much higher. MNB has an 85% share of the project and with the current MC $92 seems to have plenty of upside potential with the DFS due soon. (Although they have put it back a few times) This project will be on a fast trajectory to production and it has been difficult for me to apply the variables, I think the margins are still in my favour

Super low capex ($30-$50m ish) for a project of this value

(Should be minimal further dilution required)

Lead items ordered 

Production next year

Green Ammonia 


Also of relevance although not what I invested for is the recent potential for a Green ammonia project. 

This (bonus) project could end up more valuable the phosphate project. 

Angolan Hydro has indicated that MNB will have access to 100MW but MNB have requested a stepped access to 200MW. This is around the cheapest green power globally. 


There is of course sovereign risk issues that need to be considered. 

The signals I could find were that the Angolan government were supportive but with the escalating imminent world food crisis I think we might have to watch more than just Angola. 


I must also thank you for your terrific posts. 

I was looking for other opportunities in this space and certainly once you started to post on South Harz  it ticked a lot of boxes for me. (Also a shout to @Fowler who has also consistently provided invaluable commentary here on Strawman and on additional forums)


i do need to spend more time on the figures but I also hope that your experienced eye might see something that I am missing. There also has been a lot of commentary on Minbos on other forums similar to South Harz. It has been well covered and so far it has all added up for me. I would welcome any thoughts. Happy to be proved wrong


https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/mnb/c309808e-36f.pdf

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