Minbos presenting this week at the Gates Foundation ( invite only) Fertiliser news symposium in Marrakech

Theme: Low-Carbon Decentralized Nitrogen Fertilizer Production in Africa 

Presenting between Fortescue and ocpgroup ( OCP, are responsible for the world's largest phosphate reserves)

CAPANDA GREEN AMMONIA PROJECT UPDATE

13th Feb update

”Partnership discussions well advanced, confirming Capanda as the most  commercially attractive zero-carbon green ammonia project globally”

Early days but there seems to be little or no value associated with the potential for this Ammonia project. Near term there is still funding that needs too be finalised with the hope of the fertiliser project going into production this year.

other recent announcements were the Field trials

FIELD TRIALS CONTINUE TO DELIVER OUTSTANDING CROP PRODUCTIVITY RESULTS

Minbos: delivering projects to grow a company and lift a nation.

“This is not a phosphate story – this is a change a whole country story”

Special feature : Mining.com

Although a sponsored article, it is great update if you’re not aware of Minbos Resources ambitions and potential impact it may have for food production in Angola.

Minbos has been quietly ticking boxes and going against the trend at the moment. The phosphate project is the bases of my initial interest but there have been a lot of additional opportunities under development . I am currently holding my breath for the imminent report from Stamicarbon in regards to the Green Ammonia Project. Minbos have highlighted that this may be a more valuable opportunity. Would be a nice bonus;)

Annual report

From the chairman’s letter

“The last six months of 2022 saw Minbos seize a myriad of opportunities that Angola presents. The Company is now firmly ensconced as more than just a phosphate explorer, developer and near- term producer, with development projects that now span agriculture, fertilizers, mining explosives, carbon-abatement and LFP battery-grade phosphate paste.

Some of this growth - green ammonia, explosives and carbon abatement - has come organically, a positive externality from being a good development partner with the Angolan Government. However, opportunities in the battery metals space have locates from new relationships born from the use of phosphate in battery metals.

Phosphate paste is a critical material for the production of Lithium-Iron-Phosphate batteries, with our interest in the product driven by our phosphate production profile with assistance from our new partners who invested in Minbos in mid- 2022, corner-stoning our $25 million placement and bringing a wealth of experience in the battery space.

Our phosphate project has now entered its most exciting phase, construction and near- term production. Daily we are getting updates that the phosphate plant is arriving in its various parts into Angola, and we look forward to watching the plant turn on later in the year.”

held SM and IR

QUARTERLY ACTIVITIES REPORT FOR THE PERIOD ENDING 30 JUNE 2022

Minbos continue to work towards Phosphate Fertiliser production next year, with the added interests now in Ferro Phosphate and Lithium Ferro Phosphate for Batteries as well as the Green Ammonia Project.

Im hoping for positives with the new involvement of the Cornerstone syndicate of investors led by Mr. LIANG Feng, the Chairman of Shanghai Jayson New Energy Materials (Jayson) the world’s largest Battery Anode Producer and Stamicarbon who have overseen more than 250 fertiliser plants and numerous Green Ammonia initiatives including the world’s first industrial-scale renewable energy Ammonia project.

"Stamicarbon are eminently qualified to help deliver what will be perhaps the most compelling Green Energy-Powered-Project Globally."

Activities Report

As part of the recent CR Next investors (S3 Consortium) were again commissioned to provide Marketing services. While I feel this is great for awareness (and they do write a good story) I do watch the influences on sentiment closely.

With the recent CR and share holder dilution we at least are now fully funded to production next year (debt funding subject to DFS conditions). The DFS is now expected in September and should be interesting with all the new developments. Plenty of Risk with Minbos and I hold for the Fertiliser story. There hasn't been any value put on the new developments yet.

Commentary may be worth a read.

Next investors Commentary

Now Phosphate for batteries, Fertiliser and Green Ammonia

Minbos in a trading halt. Due to a CR and Debt Funding. It may have been better for Holders short term to see the imminent DFS first but overall a cornerstone investor helps with the derisking and should now see Minbos Fully funded to production next year.

Im watching closely as we have now had 2 CR before the DFS but I’m hoping the delays are more due to rapid developments, incorporating higher phosphate production rates and the Green Ammonia project.

Fertiliser chemicals biz Minbos Resources in $20m placement

Anthony Macdonald, Sarah Thompson and Kanika Sood Jul 8, 2022 – 10.16am

Listed ammonia and phosphate explorer Minbos Resources was asking investors to chip in for a $20 million share placement, telling them it had already cornerstoned $15 million.

The two-tranche placement, of which $14.45 million was under the company’s existing placement capacity, was priced at 11¢ a share, an 18 per cent discount to the last close. It had room for $5 million in oversubscriptions, according to the term sheet.

Potential investors were told Minbos had locked in $15 million of cornerstone commitments. Of this, the term sheet said, $10.5 million was from an entity controlled by the chairman of Shanghai Putailai New Energy, the world’s largest battery anode producer.

Minbos planned to use $17 million of the placement for its Cabinda phosphate project, while $2 million would go towards working capital and $1 million towards green ammonia technical and market assessment studies.

In tandem with the share placement, Minbos said it had executed a non-binding term sheet for a US$25 million debt facility with Long March Capital to cover the remaining capital costs of the Cabinda phosphate project.

Evolution Capital was the lead manager for the placement, and called for bids by 1pm Monday.

Bloomberg

Nitrogen Fertilizer Jumps by Record on Russian Supply Concerns

I hold both Minbos and South Harz Potash who will be helped by upward prices, Theres not much joy in positives from the current world crisis though.

ByElizabeth Elkin26 February 2022, 1:33 am AWST

Fertilizer prices are skyrocketing on concerns that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will curtail global supplies.

Prices for the popular nitrogen fertilizer urea in New Orleans surged 29% to $705 per short ton Friday, a record increase in the 45-year existence of the gauge.

Russia was the world’s largest exporter of nitrogen products as recently as last year and the potential for reduced supplies in light of U.S. and European sanctions are weighing heavily on the market.

“Reduced exports would tighten balances in Northern Hemisphere agricultural markets first,” Alexis Maxwell, an analyst for Bloomberg’s Green Markets, wrote in a report.

The risk of supply disruptions comes as fertilizer costs already are elevate because of soaring natural gas costs in Europe that prompted some manufacturers to curtail or halt production. The spike for the nutrient is stoking concerns about rising food inflation as crop prices climb.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-25/nitrogen-fertilizer-jumps-by-record-on-russian-supply-concerns?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_medium=social

Minbos Vision "To build a nutrient supply and distribution business that stimulates agricultural production and promotes food security in Angola and the broader middle african region.

Angola remains one of the worlds great untapped agricultural regions, with +35 million hectares of arable land (the size of France), high rainfall and some of lowest rates of fertilizer use globally. Currently, 100% of all nitrogen, phosphate and potassium (NPK) is imported."

• Minbos may be currently priced at this advanced PFS at 10%NPV. This value was before the significant and ongoing fertiliser price rises and also developments in a Green Ammonia project.
• DFS is due any day.
• Strong Angolian government support and the IFDC (International Fertilizer Development Center) to get this project up and running.
• While there has been little news on the green ammonia project, it looks like it hasn't been priced into the the current share price, but if they are able to secure there request for 200MW from the 100MW already highlighted, it may become a significant project in its own right.
• I think the SP may already be discounted for some sovereign risk.
• Early site works underway, Long lead items paid for a due for delivery Q2, production 2023. Low capex

https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/mnb/b50a5f90-260.pdf

With Sky rocketing Fertiliser prices, Minbos may be due for a re-rate very soon. DFS due Q122. What will it be with the higher MAP price and also the proposed reduction in the % of MAP in the Blend (50% -15%).Current mc of $46 million with potential NPV of around US$600+ million

LOW CAPEX US$28M

DFS 1Q22 TO PRODUCTION 2023  Around $8.1M Cash after Placement, expect a lot of news flow in 22

SHARES SOLD DOWN TO CR LEVELS Minbos just had a CR via a placement @10c Directors and Management taking $595k of the capital raise. MNB was at 21c in Oct

https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/mnb/b50a5f90-260.pdf

NPV Scoping Study RESOURCE High-grade Resource 8.4MT @ 29.6% P2O5 (85% ownership) Scoping Study

NPV $257M | IRR 58% Scoping Study MAP Price $478/t

AUG 2020; DAP FOB price increased to $328/t as Minbos published its Scoping Study using $428/t FOB ($478/t ex port)

DEC 2021; DAP FOB reaches $820/t after USA introduces countervailing duties on imports and China halts exports.

PRODUCTION Long lead items ordered ,DFS and approvals Q1 2022, Plant shipping ex USA Q2 2022 ,First sales 2023

MINBOS ADDITIONAL PROJECTS AND INTERESTS

Hydrogen & Green Ammonia

Green Ammonia

Government support to establish a Green Ammonia Project

Currently Engaging with technology partners

Land allocated for Green Ammonia Plant

Access to local markets to sell Ammonia Fertilizer through the IFDC and AFFPP

Access to continuously available and clean hydropower with pricing negotiations underway

Angola’s Hydro Power

World-leading Hydro Power Generation

Some of the cheapest power prices globally

Currently negotiating even lower tariff for engaging with technology providers

THE FUTURE

Future Opportunities

NPK Blending and Distribution – Lime

Nitro Phosphates

Soil Carbon

Angola Agriculture

57M ha arable land

1,000 -1,500mm annual rainfall

100% of fertilizers imported

Not directly about MNB but an Interesting update on Ferilliser out yesterday. More food for thought.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/rising-fertiliser-prices-and-inflation-will-impact-living-expenses/news-story/89cbfd47e25ed6e4ae5cdb0fb71b8163

Minbos Resources Limited (ASX:MNB) (Minbos or the Company) and Angolan agribusiness Sociedade Agroquímica Industrial, S.A. (Sagrind) are pleased to announce they have entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).

Highlights
• Minbos and Sagrind have signed a MoU to establish a Nitrogen, Phosphate, Potassium (NPK) fertilizer blending plant and distribution business in Angola’s Malanje region.
• Sagrind is an Angolan agribusiness established to supply fertilizers, herbicides, pesticides and seeds for farmers in the Malanje growing corridor.
• Minbos is an ASX-listed fertilizer developer with plan to build a nutrient supply and distribution business that stimulates agricultural production and promotes food security in Angola and the wider Economic Community of Central African States (ECOCAS) region.
• Sagrind will provide local agricultural management and knowledge, including its network, to fulfil administrative and legal aspects of the projects.
• Sagrind and Minbos share the view that Malanje is the epicentre of the development of agriculture and the agro-industrial sector in Angola and will work in partnership to pursue local and regional fertilizer market opportunities.
• The Government of Angola has allocated a 20-hectare site in Malange for the NPK plant.

https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/mnb/b9d7d77d-ced.pdf

LOW CAPEX Angola Fertilliser

SCOPING STUDY OUTCOME                         LOW   -    HIGH

EBITDA LoM (US$M)                                      $747     -  $1,101

Pre-tax NPV (US$M)                                     $191    -     $308

Pre-tax IRR (US$M)                                        41%      -    59%

After-tax NPV (US$M)                                   $159  -      $260

After-tax IRR (%)                                             40%    -      58%

Pre-production Capex (US$M)                      $27.9   -   $22.4

Average Selling Price (US$/t)                          $222  -  $290

Cash Operating Costs LoMa (US$/t)               $121 - $141

Payback Period (Years)                                      3

Life of Mine (Years)                                           21

Average Annual Production (ktpa                   368

26 Aug 20 Scoping study has a MAP Price range (US$/t)     357-482  Currently topped at (US$/t) 776

Scoping study link

https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/mnb/2252c2e1-51d.pdf

Invester presentation Africa Down under

https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/mnb/55004ab6-170.pdf

Food demand from middle Africa’s expanding population is unmet by local primary agriculture.

Angola has significant unutilised arable land, high rainfall and no primary fertiliser manufacturing facility.

Our plan is to mine Phosphate Rock from the Cácata Deposit and transport it to Porto de Caio where a granulation plant will be built and operated at the industrial site to produce Enhanced Phosphate Rock (EPR) granules. The EPR granules will become the P nutrient feed stock to blend with imported Nitrogen (N), and Potassium (K) granules in NPK blending plants to exact specifications suited to Angolan crops and soils.

The Cabinda Phosphate Project is the first step in developing a high impact self-sustaining agricultural sector throughout Angola and middle Africa and the first step in alleviating poverty for millions of subsidence farmers who use no soil nutrients.

HIGHLIGHTS

• Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) progressing with Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) commenced.
• IFDC farm and fertiliser market survey identifies 3 million farmers cultivating 5.5 million hectares with potential to increase fertiliser consumption by an order of magnitude.
• Australian provisional patent application lodged for a new phosphate rock fertiliser blend, with potential to produce 100% organic phosphate fertiliser.
• Post quarter end, purchase was approved for two key long lead items for construction of the Cabinda Phosphate Granulation Plant. A$1.5 million forward order deposit to be paid to FEECO International.

DEFINITIVE FEASIBILITY STUDY

During the quarter, the Company was actively progressing its DFS on its high-grade phosphate deposit, with ESIA now underway with a team from HCV Africa on site in Cabinda

PHOSPHATE FERTILISER PRICES

Phosphate fertiliser prices have more than doubled since the Company submitted its tender for the Cabinda Phosphate Project in late 2019. The Project sensitivity to fertiliser price movements is explained in the Scoping Study released by the Company on 26 August 2020. The Enhanced Phosphate Rock (ERP), produced for sale by the Project, includes Mono-Ammonium Phosphate (MAP)that equates to approximately half the product cost.

Currently, the ex-port warehouse price for MAP in Brazilian ports is trading at US$800, which is significantly more than the US$478 used in the Scoping Study. The Scoping Study sensitivity analysis showed the Project is most sensitive to MAP price and relatively insensitive to OPEX and CAPEX .This is important because COVID stimulus measures and supply chain impacts are expected to increase OPEX and CAPEX , but the impact on project metrics should be small compared to the positive impact of the increased MAP price. Prices can move up and down but are currently higher than the high case used in the Scoping Study.

Capitalising on rising fertiliser prices, with the price of Mono-ammonium Phosphate (MAP) currently US$780/t, more than US$300 higher than the Scoping Study benchmark price, which delivered the US$247M pre-tax NPV.

It looks like I am the only one holding a position in Minbos, I would welcome any thoughts